UQ- Won’t Pass- Political Capital down

UQ- Won’t Pass- Political Capital down

The President's current priorities are all liable to make a now bad relationship that much worse. The financial regulation bill is viewed as a typically ignorant Washington overreach. The ongoing efforts to deal with the BP spill are seen as proof that Obama is an incompetent manager and serial scapegoater of large corporate interests. And the attempt to use the Gulf crisis to revive the stalled effort to get Congress to pass major energy legislation appears to many business types as a backdoor gambit to raise taxes on corporations, mom-and-pop enterprises and consumers.

Where Obama's head and heart lies on these issues is, as usual, less clear. He certainly shares the irritation of his more liberal strategists that Big Business is being insufficiently grateful for all he has done for their needs and the nation. And he certainly believes in the power of the market much more than his detractors understand, or than his support for some emergency measures would indicate. He is likely to be surprised by the number of defections of big-money Democrats who raised contributions for him in 2008 and who will now — after the financial regulation bill is signed into law — begin a rigorous three-year-long effort to eliminate Democratic control of Congress and remove Obama from the White House.

U.S. President Barack Obama has expressed hopes that the bill will pass this year as the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has highlighted the need for energy reform. The president may have exhausted his political influence after the tough fight to pass healthcare reform legislation in March, conference delegates said. “Obama may have used all his political capital to get healthcare over the finishing line,” said Chelsea Maxwell, managing partner of the Clark Group and former senior climate advisor to Senator John Warner. The best chance of passing the bill is before politicians break for Independence Day on July 4. “There is a window of opportunity between now and the recess of July 4 to make a lot of progress and we have to seize that opportunity,” said Annie Petsonk, international counsel at the Environmental Defense Fund. However, indecisive senators could threaten that chance. Congress could also focus on other issues on its busy agenda such as financial reform. “Fence-sitters mean the odds of getting something through before July 4 are really slim,” said Alison Wood, partner at Hunton & Williams.

UQ- Won’t Pass- Republicans

Good old Lindsay Graham is doing his best to try and warn President Obama of the dangers of trying to actually pass legislation and fix the problems we elected him (and this Congress) to fix. Christina Bellantoni from TPM has the details on Graham’s pleading: But Graham is doubtful: “I don’t think any serious observer thinks that this Congress is going to enact comprehensive energy and climate policy and immigration between now and November.”Graham added that if Obama tries to pass a cap and trade system without GOP support, that would lead to “failure for decades.” “They’re not doing a good service to both issues, and both issues are important,” Graham told reporters when asked about the president’s dual efforts by TPMDC. “If you bring comprehensive immigration reform to the floor in this environment it will fail. It will fail miserably, and nobody will touch it for a decade and what you see in Arizona is going to happen throughout the country.”

Moreover, the administration will have trouble finding enough support in Congress, where Republicans will try to keep Obama from turning the issues of climate change, financial regulation and health-care reform into a trifecta of legislative achievement heading into November's midterm elections. Senate Republicans immediately challenged Obama's call to action, saying he is using the gulf disaster to promote legislation that would undermine the nation's economy. "Instead of devoting every possible resource to getting the gulf cleaned up, the Obama administration is once again using a crisis to push its job-killing agenda," said Rep. Tom Price (Ga.), chairman of the Republican Study Committee. "The president seems to think American ingenuity cannot produce 21st-century energy solutions unless Washington raises the cost of everything Americans buy with a national energy tax."

UQ: Won’t Pass- THUMPER- Immigration

Energy not on the docket- Immigration takes precedence

Goldenberg 4/26 [Suzanne US environment correspondent 2010, The Guardian, Lexis] KLS

However, the calls for an overhaul of US immigration policy raised speculation that the White House was thinking of downgrading the energy and climate bill - as it did last year when it shifted its priority to healthcare. Reid, who has from the outset been hesitant to take up energy and climate, is facing a tough fight in the congressional elections, and his home state of Nevada has a large Latino population.

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