Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011 Gemini Landsats Neg
AT: Famine – Impact – Wheat Resilient
Download 0.58 Mb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- AT: Famine – Impact – Wheat Resilient
AT: Famine – Impact – Wheat ResilientThe wheat economy is resilient – US and European crops balance Russian failures. Idaho Wheat Commission 10 (Idaho Wheat Commission, http://idahowheatcommission.blogspot.com /2010/07/no-world-wheat-shortage-seen.html, accessed 7/8/11) CJQ DTN's Bryce Anderson reports that although some wheat-growing areas in the world have had challenges, the world wheat supply outlook does not expect a shortage, thanks to weather in the U.S. Bountiful U.S. and Europe wheat harvests are offsetting fears of lower production in Russia and Canada going into late summer. (DTN file photo)The result is a generally bearish market weather factor going into late summer. "Production losses are being seen overseas, which is cutting into global supplies. However, stocks remain cumbersome," said DTN market analyst John Sanow. The challenges in other countries included Canada's wheat acreage slashed from spring flooding and Russia's wheat harvest prospects diminished because of summer drought. But the U.S. winter wheat crop harvest was large; the U.S. spring wheat harvest may match record yields; and the wheat harvest in Europe outside of Russia is going much better than some analysts had expected. For U.S. hard red winter wheat areas, May rainfall set the tone for harvest success. In Kansas -- the top hard-red-winter-wheat-production state -- May rainfall totaled from 3 to 5 inches over most of the wheat-growing areas. June was drier than normal, which allowed wheat to ripen, and harvest to proceed with few major interruptions. The final harvest was a good one: the Kansas Agriculture Statistics estimates the 2010 Kansas wheat crop at around 369 million bushels, with a yield of 43 bushels per acre -- the fifth-highest yield on record. Spring wheat areas also see a good harvest shaping up. Reports from the 2010 North Dakota spring wheat crop tour indicate that yields this year may approach last year's record 39 bushels per acre. Late-summer drought in Russia puts a bit of a crimp in world wheat supplies. Russia's drought began in April, and has been called the most serious drought since 1880, back to the days of the czars. "I see no sign in the next two weeks of a change of more rainfall," said Telvent DTN ag meteorologist Joel Burgio. He has tracked and forecast international weather patterns for more than 20 years. "Early July, we had the drought centered in central Russia and western Kazakhstan," he said. "Now, it looks like the hottest weather is shifting west into the Volga Valley and as far (west) as eastern Ukraine." But, will even such a historical calamity goad the grain market into a true-blue weather-premium mode? Sanow doesn't think so -- more to the point, he said the market doesn't think so, either. "The ending stocks-to-use ratio domestically is just shy of 50 percent (the highest level since the 1987-88 marketing year), while the world number is at a strong 28 percent," he said. "With weather remaining a factor in the Black Sea Region, the market could continue to find support, although at some point bearish fundamentals should take control once again." AT: Famine – Impact – Wheat ResilientWheat is resilient – even if the Middle East falls Idaho can maintain supply. Idaho Wheat Commission 11 (Idaho Wheat Commission, http://idahowheatcommission.blogspot.com /2011/02/idaho-wheat-producers-predict-stable.html, accessed 7/8/11) CJQ IDAHO -- The unrest in Egypt has some people worrying about their crops right here in Idaho, specifically, wheat. Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat. Meanwhile, Idaho is in the top 10 of states in the union for exporting wheat. So some of that crop that pumps hundreds of millions of dollars into the state economy depends on buyers that are right now in the midst of a possible revolution. That raised concerns with Sam White, chief operating officer of the Pacific Northwest Farmers Cooperative. He's worried that changes in the Egyptian government could mean an anti-American shift, stopping all U.S. wheat imports into the country. White told the Moscow-Pullman Daily News that, "We want that Egyptian demand, it's a vital part of the market...they buy a lot of wheat from the world, so it's vital they keep buying it." However, producers in the area we talked to, weren't too worried. "Given the global nature of Idaho wheat... well, U.S. wheat and Idaho wheat production in general, I think we'll be alright," said Travis Jones, Executive Director of the Idaho Grain Producers Association. Jones says the demand for U.S. and Idaho wheat around the world remains strong. "Worldwide, the demand for wheat is high," said Jones. "The supply of other major wheat-producing countries is down, due to weather conditions, mostly. But in Idaho, we're looking really good. In fact, our wheat will be up, or is expected to be up this year. And prices are good. So, there's a lot of optimism with Idaho wheat producers." Jones believes whoever is in charge after the dust settles in Egypt will need Idaho wheat. "There's a long history of a relationship there, not only with their government, but with some of their private industry," said Jones. "So we think we can get across those hurdles and keep this high quality Idaho wheat continuing over to the Middle East area." Another reason local producers are optimistic is the demand there for the specific type of wheat grown here. Soft white wheat is the most popular wheat produced in Idaho. That type is used in flat breads, which are commonly eaten in Egypt. Idaho produces over 100 million bushels of wheat each year. The state's 2009 wheat crop was valued at $512 million. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 0.58 Mb. Share with your friends:
|