Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011 Mercury China Coop Aff
Space Race – Cyber Attacks
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- Space War – Escalates (1/2)
Space Race – Cyber AttacksChina’s counterspace technologies guarantee EMP and cyber attacks Tellis, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment, 8 (Dr. Ashley, Senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “CHINA’S PROLIFERATION PRACTICES, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ITS CYBER AND SPACE WARFARE CAPABILITIES,” Hearing before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, May 20, 2008, Pg. 16-17, http://www.uscc.gov/hearings/2008hearings/transcripts/08_05_20_trans/08_05_20_trans.pdf, JSkoog) What is the net impact of these military space capabilities? I would urge you to think of it in terms of two dimensions: the space capabilities that are focused on force enhancement primarily allow China today to mount a wide variety of conventional operations with a great deal of confidence, either within its borders or at some distance from its borders. Over the next decade, the kinds of capabilities that are most certain to come online will allow China to apply force across a much wider spatial domain, to include by the end of the next decade, the Chinese ability to apply power throughout the Western Pacific, at least in certain specific warfighting dimensions. Where counterspace capabilities are concerned, the basic consequence of counterspace capabilities is that at least in the near term, it allows the Chinese to hold at risk a wide variety of orbital assets, especially those that are in low earth orbit, and as its counterspace capabilities gather steam, it will be able to target orbital systems at much greater altitudes, but even more importantly, to use space as one element in an integrated warfighting strategy that will focus on both command of the electromagnetic and the cyber spectrum. And it is the synergistic use of space electromagnetic attack and cyber attack that poses, I think, the greatest threat to our warfighters. Space War – Escalates (1/2)Space conflict between China and the U.S. will escalate MacDonald, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, former assistant director for national security, 8 (Bruce W., former assistant director for national security at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, “China, Space Weapons, and U.S. Security”, Council Special Report, No. 38, September 2008, p.4, http://books.google.com/books?id=o0GkabrNftIC&printsec=frontcover&dq=us+china+space&hl=en&ei=XSsOTv6QIs_TiALWtdSuBw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=false, accessed 7/1/11) EK War between China and the United States seems unlikely, given their increasing economic interdependence and ongoing efforts in both countries to improve relations. Looming in the background, however, is the possibility of war over Taiwan, a plausible if unlikely scenario that could bring the United States and China into conflict. China might then be tempted to attack U.S. military satellites as a casualty-free way to signal resolve, dissuade Washington from further involvement in a Taiwan conflict, and significantly compromise U.S. military capabilities if such dissuasion failed. Such Chinese actions could well escalate any conflict between the United States and China. As a result, both countries have interests in avoiding the actual use of counterspace weapons and shaping a more stable and secure space environment for themselves and other spacefaring nations, which could easily be caught in the undertow of a more militarily competitive space domain. Space war now would escalate to huge proportions MacDonald, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, former assistant director for national security, 8 (Bruce W., former assistant director for national security at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, “China, Space Weapons, and U.S. Security”, Council Special Report, No. 38, September 2008, p.3, http://books.google.com/books?id=o0GkabrNftIC&printsec=frontcover&dq=us+china+space&hl=en&ei=XSsOTv6QIs_TiALWtdSuBw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=false, accessed 7/1/11) EK Having crossed a space Rubicon with their ASAT demonstrations, neither nation can un-invent these capabilities. As the United States approaches major security policy reviews with the advent of a new administration in early 2009, both it and China face fundamental choices about the deployment and use of such capabilities, and the development of more advanced space weapons. The United States and China stand at a crossroads on weapons and space: whether to control this potential competition, and if so, how. While the United States is likely well ahead of China in offensive space capability, China currently is much less dependent on space assets that the U.S. military, and thus in the near term has less to lost from space conflict it is became inevitable. China’s far smaller space dependence, which hinders its military potential, ironically appears to give it a potential relative near-term offensive advantage: China has the ability to attack more U.S. space assets than vice versa, as asymmetry that complicates the issue of space deterrence, discussed later. This asymmetric Chinese advantage will likely diminish as China grows increasingly dependent on space over the next twenty years, and as the United States addresses this space vulnerability. Thus, the time will come when the United States will be able to inflict militarily more meaningful damage on Chinese space-based assets, establishing a more symmetric deterrence potential in space. Before then, other asymmetric means are available to the United States to deter China, though at possibly greater escalatory risk. That is, the United States could threaten to attack not just Chinese space assets, but also ground-based assets, including ASAT command-and-control centers and other military capabilities. But such actions, which would involve attacking Chinese soil and likely causing substantial direct casualties, would politically weigh much heavier that the U.S. loss of space hardware, and thus might climb the escalatory ladder to a more damaging war both sides would probably want to avoid. 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