Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011 Mercury Scholars International Brain Drain da
India - Impact Non-Unique – Econ Low Now
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India - Impact Non-Unique – Econ Low NowImpact Non-Unique: India economy low now- US economic progress is stifling Dholakia, freelance financial writer ‘11 (Viral, January 15, Trak.in India Business Blog “Will US Economic Recovery stall indian Growth prospects?” http://trak.in/tags/business/2011/01/15/us-economic-recovery-indian-growth/ 7/10/11 BLG) Post Global Recession 2008, India has been the beneficiary of capital inflows seeking markets with strong underlying growth prospects. This was, especially, true when the US economy was reeling under the pressures of severe slowdown led by their realty sector. Needless to say, a chunk of the European economy is still under pressure from high sovereign debts in select countries. As America comes out ahead in 2011, the emerging economies like India and China are busy grappling with high inflation and soaring food prices. Some of this pricing pressure is said to have been fuelled by the “money printing” measures (QE2) in the US aimed at increasing the supply of money into the system; which necessarily leads to inflating global commodity prices mired by concerns of supply constraints. Moreover, on the back of healthy growth prospects and tax-cut compromise that the US government passed last month is likely to strengthen the case for investors on being over-weight on US shares in their portfolios. Further, the deteriorating prospects of the Indian economy – mired by economically costly run-up in inflation and sagging industrial output data at an 18-month low of 2.7% in November – is likely to prompt foreign funds to cut back on their India exposure in 2011. That’s not all. The fact that Asian region has grown phenomenally and the US recovery is gaining traction has driven crude oil prices higher at over $90 per barrel in international markets. Additionally, larger than expected drop in crude stock-piles in the US Energy Department’s weekly inventory further adds to the woes. India – AT: EconomyImpacts empirically denied – India has been economically unstable before Guha-Thakurta MA in economics at Delhi University 8 (Paranjoy, DARE, “Political Instability and Economic Growth, 6/7/8, http://www.dare.co.in/columns/paranjoy-guha-thakurta/political-instability-and-economic-growth.htm, accessed 7/11/11, CW) India is going through a period of not just political uncertainty, but economic instability as well. But are the two connected? Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made a prestige issue of clinching the nuclear agreement with the US in the teeth of opposition from the Left, at the risk of shortening the term of his government. At the same time, inflation, as measured by the official wholesale price index, had exceeded 11% after a gap of thirteen years, interest rates were hardening, and oil prices the world over had touched record highs. Paranjoy Guha Thakurta Politics and economics are often sought to be separated. But the two disciplines are intimately interlinked. Yes, politics intrudes into every household, in power relations between spouses and among siblings. So does economics, by determining what individuals eat and how they live. To those who argue that bad politics constrains economic reforms, one of Prime Minister Singh’s favorite remarks is that there is no difference between good economics and good politics. Indian economic collapse inevitable – alt causes Schuman American author and journalist who specializes in Asian economics, politics and history 11 (Michael, CNN, “India’s economy: Headed for trouble?”, 1/18/11, http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/01/18/india’s-economy-headed-for-trouble/, accessed 7/11/11, CW) I've written in the past that India's economy emerged from the Great Recession in better shape than China's, despite its slightly lower growth rate. But now India looks like it's running into choppy times as well, with frighteningly high inflation, big budget and trade deficits and weakening competitiveness versus China and other rivals. Here's what Ken Courtis, an economist and founding partner of private-equity firm Themes Investment Management, had to say in a recent email: The Indian economy has entered a period of quickly deteriorating macroeconomic conditions…Unless addressed quickly, purposefully, and systematically, left to its present course, India is headed for difficulty. The problems India is facing show just how divided the world economy has become. While the advanced economies have been struggling to create growth and jobs and fight deflation, the roaring emerging world is struggling with the negative spin-off effects of rapid growth and strong domestic demand, and are fighting rising inflation. Such woes might be the envy of the Americans, Spanish, Irish and others still dealing with the fallout from the Great Recession, but that doesn't make those woes any less dangerous. Growth aside, policymakers in the emerging world are perhaps facing as tough a 2011 as their counterparts in the U.S., Europe and Japan. The issues and priorities might be different – totally opposite in many ways -- but the problems are no less difficult to resolve. |