Obama Good (Foreign Policy)

Ext – Romney Leads to China Bashing

Romney election leads to China bashing --- results in a trade war

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is looking at ways to increase pressure on China over what he sees as currency manipulation and unfair subsidy practices, a Romney campaign adviser said on Tuesday. "I think he wants to maximize the pressure," Grant Aldonas, a former undersecretary of commerce for international trade, said at a symposium on the future of U.S. manufacturing. Aldonas served at the Commerce Department under Republican President George W. Bush. Romney, the front-runner in the Republican race to challenge President Barack Obama for the White House in November, has promised if elected he would quickly label China a currency manipulator, something the Obama administration has six times declined to do. That would set the stage, under Romney's plan, for the United States to impose countervailing duties on Chinese goods to offset the advantage of what many consider to be China's undervalued currency. Last year, the Democratic-controlled Senate passed legislation to do essentially the same thing. However, the measure has stalled in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, where leaders say they fear it could start a trade war, and the Obama administration has not pushed for a House vote on the currency bill. The U.S. Treasury Department on April 15 faces a semi-annual deadline to declare whether any country is manipulating its currency for an unfair trade advantage. The department, under both Democratic and Republican administrations, has not cited any country since 1994, when China was last named. Asked if Romney was serious about declaring China a currency manipulator, Aldonas answered: "He is."

Romney results in escalating protectionist wars with China

Wall Street Journal, 9/7/2011 (Mitt Romney’s 59 Economic Flavors, p. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904537404576554692126810066.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

By far the most troubling proposal is Mr. Romney's call for "confronting China" on trade. This is usually a Democratic theme, but Mr. Romney does Mr. Obama one worse by pledging to have his Treasury brand China a "currency manipulator" if it doesn't "move quickly to bring its currency to full value." He'd then hit Beijing with countervailing duties. Starting a trade war is a rare policy mistake that Mr. Obama hasn't made, but Mr. Romney claims it is a way to faster growth. His advisers say he doesn't favor a 25% tariff on Chinese goods as some in Congress do, but once a President unleashes protectionist furies they are hard to contain. His economic aides say this idea comes directly from Mr. Romney himself, which is even less reassuring. It looks like a political maneuver to blunt the criticism he'll receive because some of Bain Capital's companies sent jobs overseas, or perhaps this is intended to win over working-class precincts in Pennsylvania and Ohio. But giving Americans the impression that a trade war will bring those jobs back to the U.S. is offering false hope. It also distracts from the other fiscal and regulatory reforms that are needed to attract capital and create jobs.

Turns Soft Power

Pressure jacks soft power and global cooperation

Yu 00 (Peter K., Professor of Intellectual Property – Michigan State University, “From Pirates To Partners: Protecting Intellectual Property In China In The Twenty-First Century”, American University Law Review, October, 50 Am. U.L. Rev. 131, Lexis)

Coercion invites retaliation. 226 The first thing the United States needs to do is to abandon its coercive foreign intellectual property policy. As pointed out by the U.S.-China Business Council, the umbrella group for American firms doing business in China, "there is little evidence that unilateral U.S. sanctions can effectuate policy changes in other nations." 227 In fact, unilateral sanctions tend to hurt American businesses without any guarantee of change. 228 Today, goods produced in the United States are also produced in Europe and Japan. Because Europe and Japan do not impose similar demands on China, 229 "the Chinese government will react to sanctions  [*168]  by becoming even more hostile to the United States and by switching from U.S. products to European and Japanese ones." 230 For example, when the United States threatened to sanction China over its lack of intellectual property protection, Chinese Premier Li Peng went to France to sign a $ 1.5-billion order for thirty short-haul Airbus planes, instead of Boeing planes. 231 China also gave a European consortium the rights to develop a new hundred-seat airliner. 232 As "the growth prospects for the U.S. economy ... have become increasingly dependent on exports," 233 a confrontational policy will  [*169]  hurt American businesses even more. Due to the constant use of trade threats by the American government and the uncertain trade relations between the two countries, many risk-aversive American businesses have limited their business in China to avoid risks. 234 Unreliable as long-term suppliers, some of the American businesses have also been replaced by their foreign competitors. Even worse, the trade threats and constant bullying have sparked a new resurgence of nationalism and xenophobia in China. 235 Evidence of this resurgence includes two recent bestsellers, 236 the Chinese reaction to the United States's bombing of their embassy in Belgrade, 237 and China's recent standoff with the United States over the collision between its jet fighter and a U.S. reconnaissance plane. 238 If these sentiments continue to grow, they may even lead to boycotts of American products or harassment of American businesses. 239 At the global level, a coercive policy will threaten the integrity of the international trading system and may even lead to its collapse. 240  [*170]  China's responses to the United States's threats of trade sanctions  [*171]  have demonstrated that a coercive policy always leads to retaliation and may even result in a global trade war. In such a war, resources tend to be allocated inefficiently, and the whole world will become worse off. A coercive policy would also lead to criticism from other countries, thus alienating the United States from its trading partners. 241 Even worse, in their transition from a command economy to a market economy, the emerging democracies are constantly looking to the policies of Western democracies, in particular the United States, for guidance. 242 A coercive policy would lead to unrevised adoption by these emerging democracies. 243 The United States has taken a tremendous effort to create the TRIPs Agreement and to build an international intellectual property system. Ironically, its foreign intellectual property policy is attempting to destroy what it has worked so hard to achieve. 244

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