Japan Aff Michigan 2010 / ccgjp lab – 7wks


Relocation of troops won’t lead to a decrease of deterrence



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Relocation of troops won’t lead to a decrease of deterrence


Sakaguchi, 2009 [Daisaku, “The Realignment of U.S. Forces in Japan and its Impact on the Interdependent Relationship between Japan and the U.S.”, www.nids.go.jp/english/publication/kiyo/pdf/2009/bulletin_e2009_3.pdf]

Regarding the first point, deterrence, the assessment generally seems to be that it will be maintained or strengthened. Examining Japan overall, the relocation of the transformed U.S. Army command to Camp Zama, and its coexistence with the GSDF Central Readiness Force’s headquarters will create a closer link between the U.S. 1st Corps Headquarters and the SDF, and boost readiness and operational capability. Furthermore, having the ASDF’s Air Defense Command at Yokota side by side with the U.S. Fifth Air Force Command will improve air defense and missile defense capabilities. In the same way, establishing a joint operations coordination center for U.S. forces and the SDF at Yokota, where the U.S. forces in Japan headquarters is located, will lead to stronger integration between U.S. forces and the SDF and improve situational readiness.6 Strictly speaking, because deterrence comes into existence based on the capabilities of the side that is doing the deterring and the degree that it is acknowledged by the side that is being deterred, it is not possible to assess deterrence without questioning how the nations and non-state actors that pose a threat and are targeted for deterrence react to and acknowledge the realignment of U.S. forces. And neither is it certain that the U.S. places value in foreign bases because they are deterrents, like it did in the Cold War era. This is because, as Kent E. Calder says, “the functions of regional control, stability and strategic deterrence from Berlin to Korea that were important up to the end of the Cold War have almost completely disappeared, and the continued existence of the bases is being supported by the need to stabilize the unstable regions of Northeast Asia and the Middle East, and to ensure security.”7 Since the simultaneous 9/11 terrorist attacks the role of the U.S.’ offshore bases has been changing into staging areas and posts for supporting local anti-terrorist operations.8 However, as a result of the realignment of U.S. forces in Japan there is no question that the two nations’ situational response will become stronger and more ready due to the strengthening in the U.S. forces’ and the SDF’s command functions, and the establishment of closely-linked management. Okinawa’s Marines will be downsized but with them being stationed in Guam the U.S. forces’ presence in the Asia-Pacific region will be maintained, and the U.S. forces’ military support for Japan is likely to remain stable as well.

A2: Deterrence



Nuclear Umbrella must remain in place to avoid North Korean attack

Congressional Research Service ’10

“Japan- U.S. Relations: Issues for Congress” www.crs.gov Chanlett-Avery, Cooper, Manyin. February 24, 2010



Another source of strategic anxiety in Tokyo concerns the U.S extended deterrence, or “nuclear umbrella,” for Japan. The Bush Administration’s shift in negotiations with Pyongyang triggered fears in Tokyo that Washington might eventually accept a nuclear armed North Korea and thus somehow diminish the U.S. security guarantee for Japan. These anxieties have persisted despite repeated statements by both the Bush and Obama Administrations to reassure Tokyo of the continued U.S. Commitment to defend Japan. However, Japan’s sense of vulnerability is augmented by the fact that its own ability to deter threats is limited by its largely defense-oriented military posture. Given Japan’s reliance on U.S. extended deterrence, Tokyo is wary of any change in U.S. policy—however subtle—that might alter the nuclear status quo in East Asia.
Nuclear Umbrella essential to maintaining US-Japan relations

Congressional Research Service ‘10

“Japan- U.S. Relations: Issues for Congress” www.crs.gov Chanlett-Avery, Cooper, Manyin. February 24, 2010



Japan and the United States are military allies under a security treaty concluded in 1951 and revised in 1960. Under the treaty, Japan grants the United States military base rights on its territory in return for a U.S. pledge to protect Japan’s security. Although defense officials had hoped that the 50th anniversary of the treaty would compel Tokyo and Washington to work on additional agreements to enhance bilateral defense cooperation, a rocky start under the new Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government has generated concern about the future of the bilateral alliance. The most prominent controversy concerns the planned relocation of the U.S. Marines’ Futenma air station to a less crowded part of Okinawa (see details below), which has thrown into doubt a comprehensive realignment of U.S. forces in the region and simultaneously raised fundamental questions about the long-standing security relationship between Tokyo and Washington.

The future of extended deterrence for Japan and the United States depends upon a combination of factors, some of which are under the allies’ control and some of which are not. The allies cannot directly control the trajectory of China’s conventional or nuclear military modernization, North Korea’s political-military development in the post- Kim Jong-il era, the ultimate effectiveness of MD technologies, or broader economic conditions in the region and the world. The allies’ individual and collective responses to these developments, however, are up to them, and their choices will undoubtedly influence the regional security environment. Moreover, the allied consultations about these issues in and of themselves will also become indicators of the health of the alliance, so the frequency, atmosphere, and substance of these bilateral interactions will also be important.





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