Ext - -No China Escalation

Ext - -No China Escalation

US publicly aggressive towards China in the face of attack, but is quietly diplomatic

Most interesting for the findings in this controlled-group analysis are the statistically significant responses from the United States after it is the victim of a cyber incident. With the exception of China, the United States responds negatively and coercively to all of its rivals if it is the victim of cyber conflict. When the United States is the victim of cyber conflict originating from China, this evokes cooperative responses from the American foreign policy regime. It must be noted that these are public reactions captured by the events data dependent variables. Behind closed doors, therefore, the US reaction to intrusions by China in its secure networks could be quite different. Regardless, our focus on public events and the results seem counterintuitive due to all of the publically negative reports from cybersecurity firms about Chinese aggression in cyberspace.

The three most powerful cyber states, the United States, Russia, and China have been in talks about norms in cyberspace.50 This is where the more cooperative scores between the United States and China are most likely being generated. However, since 2011, relations between the United States and Russia have been steadily spiraling downward, and domestic actions by the US Congress and Department of Justice have led to the indictment of five People’s Liberation Army members with charges of espionage and theft.51 The progress made on the development of cyber norms as well as the cordial responses from the United States when the victim of Chinese cyber malice, therefore, may be a thing of the past.

Ext – China Just Engages in Espionage

China just stealing

The Chinese are the most active initiator (41 incidents) of all the countries that engage in cyber conflict. This may be interpreted as China being a major cyber aggressor, and this interpretation may be part of the upswing in perceived severity and fear of cyber conflict that has infiltrated popular media outlets. However, the majority of cyber incidents and disputes that China has initiated during the time period analyzed are theft operations. As hypothesized in Chapter 3, China engages in cyber espionage because it is the least it can do without outright provocation of its more powerful competitor, the United States. China is a rising power not only in East Asia, but globally. It must be wary of its power projection with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan regionally and with the United States globally. It seems that it has found its outlet in cyberspace, as the data presented here show that China is by far the most active user of cyber tactics among the world’s rivals. More on the reactions to cyber incidents and disputes from the target states of China will be discussed in the next chapter.

A2: Great Power War

Cyber attacks amongst great powers actually increase cooperation and improve relations

Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Armed Forces & Society, The Impact of Cyber Conflict on International Relations, p. 18

Most cyber incidents are allowed to occur without any significant response from the victim. In fact, incidents between great powers like the United States and China actually result in positive relations rather than further degenerative interactions. The reason for this is likely because cyber incidents fall below the normal range of operations. They generally are silent and focused methods meant to not upset the delicate balance of relations between competing rival states. When China infiltrates the United States, the United States responds diplomatically without further cyber operations. The future could be different, but for now, powers have learned to manage relationships even during constant and harmful cyber operations. We believe that the United States is restraining itself from reacting in a negative manner with China so as not to escalate cyber conflict to the doomsday levels many pundits and academics say is inevitable.

A2: Asian Cyber Conflict

Japan reacts cooperatively to cyber attacks

Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Armed Forces & Society, The Impact of Cyber Conflict on International Relations, p. 16

The last groups of dyads that have statistically significant reactions to cyber incidents are regional. Israel–Lebanon, China–India, and India–China all produce negative foreign policy reactions to cyber incidents. One state, Japan, reacts to cyber incidents with more cooperative interactions with their regional rivals. When South Korea and China send the botnets to Japan, the Japanese governments will respond with an olive branch. It seems that Japan does not want to escalate cyber conflict with its growing East Asian competitors.

Ext – General Extensions

Technology limitations and fear of self-harm limit cyber attacks

Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card

We argue that the use of the theoretical idea of deterrence in the cyber realm is a misapplication of deterrence theory. Lawson (2012: 2) suggests that the use of the term deterrence in the cyber realm could be dangerous: “the war metaphor and nuclear deterrence analogy are neither natural nor inevitable and that abandoning them would open up new possibilities for thinking more productively about the full spectrum of cyber security challenges, including the as yet unrealized possibility of cyber war.” Different motives, centered on the concept of restraint, provide a more accurate reading of cyber outcomes and processes. Furthermore, restraint is the policy outcome but not necessarily a process; we need other ideas and terms to describe the policy process of states limiting responses and uses of cyber conflict in reality. The term cyber straitjacketing seems to be the most applicable, in that cyber powers are prevented from taking extreme cyber actions due to the confines of the technology and also to prevent self-harm. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 54). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.

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