Mass Transit Affirmative 1AC
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- Peak Oil approaching: experts agree within 20 years
- New technologies mitigate a decline in oil production
Oil – Peak Oil ComingOil’s demand is destined to decrease Sufiy, 7-11-11 (Peak Oil: Getting Off Oil - A 50-State Roadmap for Curbing Our Dependence on Petroleum ,Sufiy's Instablog ,http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/21153-sufiy/194495-peak-oil-getting-off-oil-a-50-state-roadmap-for-curbing-our-dependence-on-petroleum) "Lithium Drive: Warren Buffett: "In not many years, you are going to see a clear change towards Electric Cars" Warren Buffett first pronounced in November 2009: "In 20 years, all cars on the road will be electric" Now we can hear his call on Electric Cars from the Master himself. He has invested in BYD - Chinese auto maker and Lithium battery company, which promise to bring its Electric Cars to U.S. BYD has made later investment in Lithium producer in China. We are in a very good company with our Lithium Dreamz."¶ Oil threaten us and the things around us Sufiy, 7-11-11 (Peak Oil: Getting Off Oil - A 50-State Roadmap for Curbing Our Dependence on Petroleum ,Sufiy's Instablog ,http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/21153-sufiy/194495-peak-oil-getting-off-oil-a-50-state-roadmap-for-curbing-our-dependence-on-petroleum) Global warming – Oil consumption is the number one source of carbon dioxide—the most important global warming pollutant—from the U.S. economy. America’s emissions of global warming pollution from oil burning alone exceed the total emis- sions of every nation in the world other than China.¶ Air pollution – Combustion of gasoline in motor vehicles produces nearly one-third of the nation’s air emissions of nitrogen oxides and more than one- fifth of emissions of volatile organic compounds. These two pollutants are responsible for the ozone smog that threatens the health of millions of Americans. Oil refineries are also major sources of toxic air emissions.¶ Oil spills and leaks – Oil spills impose massive damage on the environment. Over the past decade, more than 1 million barrels of oil products have leaked from petroleum pipelines ,while there are approximately 7,300 reports each year of leaking under- ground oil storage tanks, which threat- en the safety of groundwater supplies.¶ Reducing oil usage weakens our enemies while making us stronger Sufiy, 7-11-11 (Peak Oil: Getting Off Oil - A 50-State Roadmap for Curbing Our Dependence on Petroleum ,Sufiy's Instablog ,http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/21153-sufiy/194495-peak-oil-getting-off-oil-a-50-state-roadmap-for-curbing-our-dependence-on-petroleum) “Every day we send a billion dollars overseas for oil, much of which ends up in the hands of terrorist organizations and nations which don’t share America’s values. And all that money represents jobs that we could be creating here at home. Clean energy makes America stronger at home and around the world,” continued Diehl. America have already reduce their use of oil Cleantech, 12 (Record Public Transit Ridership Reduces U.S. Oil Dependency, Cleantechblog, http://www.cleantechblog.com/2012/03/record-public-transit-ridership-reduces-u-s-oil-dependency.html) The United States is reducing its dependency on oil as we now consuming 18.3 million barrels a day, down from our peak of 21 million barrels a few years ago. Record use of public transit is a major factor – less solo driving in gridlock and we use less oil. Other major factors, of course, include high gasoline prices and more fuel-efficient cars. Since 96 percent of our transportation is from oil refined into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, we will take all the help we can get. Peak Oil approaching: experts agree within 20 yearsFrumkin et al. 09 (January-February 2009. Howard Frumkin, MD, DrPH National Center for Environmental Health and Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, CDC/Jeremy Hess, MD, MPH Emory Medical School, CDC, NCEH, ATSDR/Stephen Vindigni, MPH Emory Medical School, NCEH, ATSDR. Public Health Reports. “Energy and Public Health: The Challenge of Peak Petroleum” http://www.publichealthreports.org/userfiles/124_1/5-19.pdf) Published estimates of the date of world peak petroleum vary considerably (Figure 2). Not only do estimates of reserves vary, but there are also differing approaches to projecting population growth, economic growth, and future petroleum demand. Dr. Shokri Ghanem, of the National Oil Corporation of Libya, offered a useful summary at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ 2006 Oil and Money Conference, on the occasion of being named Petroleum Executive of the Year: . . . While some of the more pessimistic oil specialists are declaring that peak oil has already been passed, or at best is here now, others believe it is not going to arrive before 2010. Some optimists give the world a little more breathing space—that is to say up to 2020, and perhaps even up to 2030. However, all in all, most would appear to agree that peak oil output is not very far away for all of us. It could take place sometime within the next decade or so, which in fact means that ¶ there is not much time left for a world economy to be driven largely by oil. Peak petroleum will mark the beginning of a long, gradual decline in petroleum production and availability. Petroleum will remain available for some time, but it will no longer be readily extracted, inexpensive petroleum. Meanwhile, world demand for petroleum is predicted to increase in coming decades. With rising ¶ demand and declining supply, market forces will operate to increase petroleum prices. All parts of society, ¶ including the health sector, will be affected. New technologies mitigate a decline in oil productionFrumkin et al. 09 (January-February 2009. Howard Frumkin, MD, DrPH National Center for Environmental Health and Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, CDC/Jeremy Hess, MD, MPH Emory Medical School, CDC, NCEH, ATSDR/Stephen Vindigni, MPH Emory Medical School, NCEH, ATSDR. Public Health Reports. “Energy and Public Health: The Challenge of Peak Petroleum” http://www.publichealthreports.org/userfiles/124_1/5-19.pdf) If petroleum supplies decline rapidly, all things being ¶ equal, the adjustment will be more challenging. Both ¶ the availability and the price of petroleum products ¶ may be volatile. In addition, rapid decline will leave ¶ less time to implement adaptive behaviors and replacement technologies. An important determinant of the rate of decline is drilling and extraction technology. This technology has advanced rapidly in recent years, increasing the ease and decreasing the cost of extracting “hard-to-get” petroleum, and thereby expanding recoverable reserves. Moreover, as petroleum prices ¶ rise, more expensive extraction technologies become ¶ economical to use. Wells that were partially exhausted ¶and abandoned as unprofitable at a time of cheap oil can be revived using more costly techniques. For example, California’s Kern River oil field was discovered in 1899 and was highly productive for decades, ¶ but by the late 20th century, output had dropped to ¶ 10,000 barrels per day. High-pressure steam extraction ¶ technology reversed this trend, boosting production to ¶ 85,000 barrels per day by 2007. At Indonesia’s giant ¶ Duri oil field, dating from 1941, production had ¶ dropped to 65,000 barrels per day by the mid-1980s, ¶ but two decades later rose to more than 200,000 barrels ¶ a day using this same technology.¶ 27¶ As prices rise and technology improves, even more dramatic technical advances will allow exploitation of unconventional oil reserves such as tar sands. Such developments will slow the rate of decline of petroleum availability. Nonrenewable sources are running out – We need to begin using methods to mitigate the arms race over energy sources Cabral, Jim teaches international relations and political science in the Social Science Department at Landmark College in Putney VT, August 12, 2010 (Beyond BP: Michael Klare on US Energy Policy, Valley Advocate, http://www.valleyadvocate.com/article.cfm?aid=12165) Another source of "tinder" is the very real and increasing gap between the supply of and demand for energy. Klare cites energy trade journals' characterizations of the jump in energy use from 2004-2030 as "extraordinary." (China and India—"Chindia," in the parlance of some energy analysts—will play a "conspicuous role" here, representing the source of the aforementioned "fear" among policymakers of major energy importers.)¶ At the same time, specifically in the case of oil, Klare warns that rates of output in mature fields continue to decline; the track record regarding the discovery of new sources of "easy oil" has been disappointing; and investors have been reluctant to risk new ventures for "tough oil" in remote, hazardous or otherwise hostile environs (deep in the Gulf of Mexico, for example).¶ Moreover, over the long term, nonrenewable alternatives to oil are insufficient as substitutes. As he explains: "...a growing number of critical materials, including natural gas, coal, uranium, and several key minerals, also appear to be approaching their maximum levels of sustainable output. As suggested by scientists at the Army Engineer Research and Development Center of the Army Corps of Engineers, 'The earth's endowment of natural resources are [sic] being depleted at an alarming rate—exponentially faster than the biosphere's ability to replenish them.'"¶ As the world's largest energy consumers, China and the U.S. would seem to be the logical starting points from which to begin redirecting the increasingly militarized global race for nonrenewable energy sources. Accordingly, Klare asserts that a change from "competition to collaboration" in the U.S.-China energy paradigm could serve as an example for the rest of the world. Transcending commonly held notions of the "inevitability" of conflict between the two nations will be necessary for such collaboration to occur, along with recognizing and emphasizing what they have in common: shared status as oil-dependent energy consumers, and what Klare describes as "...a common interest in tackling the global warming dilemma. Together, [the United States and China] are projected to account for a staggering 45 percent of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions by 2030—a truly terrifying prospect, given the grievous harm in the form of intense storms, floods, droughts, fires, and pestilence that climate change is likely to inflict on both countries." Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 0.65 Mb. Share with your friends:
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