Mattis, Jamestown Foundation China Program fellow, 2015
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T AnswersCan Be UnconditionalEconomic engagement can be conditional or unconditional.Kahler and Kastner 6 — Miles Kahler, Rohr Professor of Pacific International Relations at the school of International Relations and Pacific Studies and Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of California-San Diego, holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University, and Scott L. Kastner, Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Maryland, holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California-San Diego, 2006 (“Strategic Uses of Economic Interdependence: Engagement Policies on the Korean Peninsula and Across the Taiwan Strait,” Journal of Peace Research, Volume 43, Number 5, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via SAGE Publications Online, p. 524-525) Economic engagement – a policy of deliberately expanding economic ties with an adversary in order to change the behavior of the target state and improve bilateral political relations – is a subject of growing interest in international relations. Most research on economic statecraft emphasizes coercive policies such as economic sanctions. This emphasis on negative forms of economic statecraft is not without justification: the use of economic sanctions is widespread and well documented, and several quantitative studies have shown that adversarial relations between countries tend to correspond to reduced, rather than enhanced, levels of trade (Gowa, 1994; Pollins, 1989). At the same time, however, relatively little is known about how often strategies of economic engagement are deployed: scholars disagree on this point, in part because no database cataloging instances of positive economic statecraft exists (Mastanduno, 2003). Beginning with the classic work of Hirschman (1945), most studies of economic engagement have been limited to the policies of great powers (Mastanduno, 1992; Davis, 1999; Skalnes, 2000; Papayoanou & Kastner, 1999/2000; Copeland, 1999/2000; Abdelal & Kirshner, 1999/2000). However, engagement policies adopted by South Korea and one other state examined in this study, Taiwan, demonstrate that engagement is not a strategy limited to the domain of great power politics and that it may be more widespread than previously recognized. We begin by developing a theoretical approach to strategies of economic engagement. Based on the existing literature, our framework distinguishes different forms of economic engagement and identifies the factors likely to facilitate or undermine the implementation of these strategies. We then evaluate our hypotheses by examining the use of economic engagement on the Korean Peninsula and across the Taiwan Strait. Because our conclusions are derived from a small number of cases, we are cautious in making claims that our findings can be generalized. The narratives that we provide and the conclusions that we draw from them may, however, spur further research on this interesting and important feature of security policy and international politics. Economic Engagement: Strategies and Expectations
The success of a conditional engagement strategy should also be contingent on a state’s influence over domestic firms. If those firms find market-based transactions with the target state unappealing, a government pursuing a conditional strategy must convince them to deal with the target when desired change occurs. On the other hand, if domestic firms have strong economic incentives to conduct economic transactions with the target state, a successful conditional strategy must prevent them from pursuing their economic exchange in the absence of the desired change in a target state’s behavior. In this regard, democracies may have a harder time pursuing a conditional strategy: in a democratic setting, firms are likely to be openly critical of politicians who try to restrict their commercial activities and will support candidates who do not place such demands on them. Our first hypothesis (H1), therefore, is that conditional engagement strategies will be less likely to succeed if the initiating state is a democracy, especially when underlying economic incentives to trade with or invest in the target state are strong.2 Unconditional engagement strategies are more passive than conditional variants in that they do not include a specific quid pro quo. Rather, countries deploy economic links with an adversary in the hopes that economic interdependence itself will, over time, change the target’s foreign policy behavior and yield a reduced threat of military conflict. How increased economic integration at the bilateral level might produce an improved bilateral political environment is not obvious. While most empirical studies on the subject find that increased economic ties tend to be associated with a reduced likelihood of military violence, no consensus explanation exists (e.g. Russett & Oneal, 2001; Oneal & Russett, 1999; for less sanguine results, see Barbieri, 1996). At a minimum, state leaders might seek to exploit two causal pathways by pursuing a policy of unconditional engagement: economic interdependence can act as a constraint on the foreign policy behavior of the target state, and economic interdependence can act as a transforming agent that reshapes the goals of the target state. Unconditional engagement includes the aff.Litwak 7 — Robert S. Litwak, Director of the Division of International Security Studies at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, former director for nonproliferation on the National Security Council staff, 2007 (“Strategies for a Change of Regime — or for Change within a Regime?,” Regime Change: U.S. Strategy Through the Prism of 9/11, Published by JHU Press, ISBN 0801886422, p. 116-117) Under unconditional engagement, a policy change is made with no explicit expectation of reciprocation by the target state. This shift can take the form of a political gesture at the governmental level to reduce tensions and facilitate additional steps to improve relations — such as the United States's symbolic lifting of some minor economic sanctions on Iran in March [end page 116] 2000.43 Alternatively, unconditional engagement can be conducted through nongovernmental actors operating at the societal level to promote change. In a case where the economy is not totally state-controlled, economic contacts can foster the development of autonomous interest groups. The easing of travel restrictions can permit the flow of people and ideas into the target state and promote the positive evolution of the state's civil society. Economic, scientific, cultural, and other activities outside the regime's direct control can become seeds of long-term change. China is the most striking and important example of this phenomenon. The exponential expansion of China's private sector and its increased links to the outside world at the societal level have been both a reflection of domestic reform and spurs for further measures to promote democratization and the creation of a market economy. Cuba and Iran are both candidates for unconditional engagement — where some experts believe such activities would strengthen civil society.44 Economic engagement can be conditional or unconditional and targets government and the private sector.Haass and O’Sullivan 2k — Richard N. Haass, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, former senior aide to President George Bush, and Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Fellow with the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution, 2000 (“Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies,” Survival, Volume 42, Number 2, Summer, Available Online at http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/articles/2000/6/summer%20haass/2000survival.pdf, p. 2) Many different types of engagement strategies exist, depending on who is engaged, the kind of incentives employed and the sorts of objectives pursued. Engagement may be conditional when it entails a negotiated series of exchanges, such as where the US extends positive inducements for changes undertaken by the target country. Or engagement may be unconditional if it offers modifications in US policy towards a country without the explicit expectation that a reciprocal act will follow. Generally, conditional engagement is geared towards a government; unconditional engagement works with a country’s civil society or private sector in the hopes of promoting forces that will eventually facilitate cooperation. Cyber Is EconomicMorrison, CRS Specialist in Asian Trade and Finance, 2015 (Wayne, “China-U.S. Trade Issues”, 12-15, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33536.pdf) Despite growing commercial ties, the bilateral economic relationship has become increasingly complex and often fraught with tension. From the U.S. perspective, many trade tensions stem from China’s incomplete transition to a free market economy. While China has significantly liberalized its economic and trade regimes over the past three decades, it continues to maintain (or has recently imposed) a number of state-directed policies that appear to distort trade and investment flows. Major areas of concern expressed by U.S. policymakers and stakeholders include China’s alleged widespread cyber economic espionage against U.S. firms; relatively poor record of intellectual property rights (IPR) enforcement; discriminatory innovation policies; mixed record on implementing its World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations; extensive use of industrial policies (such as financial support of state-owned firms and trade and investment barriers) in order to promote and protect industries favored by the government; and interventionist policies to control the value of its currency. Many U.S. policymakers argue that such policies negatively impact U.S. economic interests and have contributed to U.S. job losses. There are a number of U.S. views on how to better address commercial disputes with China: Take a more aggressive stand against China, such as increasing the number of dispute settlement cases brought against China in the WTO, or threatening to impose trade sanctions against China unless it addresses policies, such as cyber theft of U.S. business trade secrets, that hurt U.S. economic interests. Directory: wp-content -> uploads -> sites sites -> 587 Return function, r i(X) r i(0) r i(1) r i(2) r i(3) 1 0 2 4 6 Thermal Station, I 2 0 1 5 6 3 0 3 5 6 10 sites -> Medical Radiography Program sites -> Background on the Haitian Earthquake sites -> Desk review yemen sites -> Safe Transitions for the Elderly Patient (step) sites -> District profile Haripur Introduction sites -> Germanie VanTrease and Tyler Tetzloff sites -> For more information sites -> To be completed by the cerf secretariat. Type of submission sites -> Sponsor Content Above the Clutter with Pete Krainik Download 0.59 Mb. 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