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Aerospace Advantage-Uniqueness



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Aerospace Advantage-Uniqueness


Peer competitors are rapidly approaching the point of overtaking US aero dominance

NIA 2006 (National Institute of Aerospace, “Responding to the Call: Aviation Plan for American Leadership” http://ns1.nianet.org/pubs/AviationPlan/AviationPlan_recommendations.pdf )

The United States of America has been the undisputed world leader in aviation technology since the end of World War II. The aviation industry accounts for a very large fraction of all U.S. exports, and aviation jobs are among the highest paid per-capita of any industrial sector. The aviation industry has, in all candor, been a cornerstone of American defense, a staple of American prosperity, and a symbol of American ingenuity for more than six decades. Today, the U.S. position as world leader in aviation is no longer undisputed. We are being challenged not on the basis of corporate competition, but increasingly on the basis of national competition. A new, united Europe has already surpassed the U.S. in a variety of key aviation sectors. Further, the European Union has plainly stated that their goal is to dominate the aviation industry by 2020. Europe is presently investing heavily in the long-term research necessary to make this a reality within the next fifteen years. And the future looks set to bring even more competition, particularly from Asia. China is rapidly industrializing, and if its present pace of technological advance can be sustained, they will likely overtake the U.S. in 10-20 years.
Specifically China is on the verge of passing the US

Cliff, Olhandt, and Lang 2011 (Roger Cliff, Chad J.R. Olhandt, and David Yang. RAND – National Security Research Division.

China’s aerospace industry has advanced at an impressive rate over the past decade. While some of this progress can be attributed to rapidly growing governmental support for China’s aerospace sector, China’s aerospace capabilities have also benefited from the increasing participation of its aerospace industry in the global commercial aerospace market and the supply chains of the world’s leading aerospace firms. This monograph assesses China’s aerospace capabilities and the degree to which China’s participation in commercial aerospace markets and supply chains is contributing to the improvement of those capabilities. Most major aviation manufacturers—Boeing, Airbus, General Electric (GE), Rolls-Royce, and Pratt & Whitney—have joint ventures in China or source components from China. China has also received technical assistance from Western companies in the development of airliners, avionics, satellites, and other systems. Although joint ventures and assistance from Western companies are generally confined to purely civilian technologies, this assistance may nonetheless be contributing to the development of China’s military aerospace capabilities. This monograph assesses the growth of China’s aerospace capabilities and the extent to which China’s participation in commercial aerospace markets and supply chains is contributing to that growth. Specific areas assessed include China’s commercial aviation manufacturing capabilities, its commercial and military capabilities in space, efforts of the Chinese government to encourage foreign participation in the development of China’s aerospace industry, transfers of foreign aerospace technology to China, the extent to which U.S. and other
The exodus is coming – massive worker shortages in the status quo doom the industry’s competitiveness

SF Chronicle 2008 (San Francisco Chronicle, 3/10/08, “Aerospace, defense sectors brace for brain drain as Cold War workers retire” http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Aerospace-defense-sectors-brace-for-brain-drain-3292154.php )

The aerospace and defense sector is bracing for a potential brain drain over the next decade as a generation of Cold War scientists and engineers hits retirement age and not enough qualified young Americans seek to take their place. The problem - almost 60 percent of U.S. aerospace workers in 2007 were 45 or older - could affect national security and even close the door on commercial products that start out as military technology, industry officials said. While U.S. universities are awarding nearly 200,000 engineering, math and computer science degrees annually - 2 1/2 times as many as they did 40 years ago - defense companies must compete with the likes of Google, Microsoft and Verizon for the best and the brightest. Industry leaders are doing their best to emphasize the allure, and growing importance, of jobs linked to national defense.



Aerospace Advantage-Uniqueness


Cold War aerospace workers are now reaching retirement age – collapse of the industry is inevitable

Montgomery 2008 (Dave Montgomery, staff writer for The Seattle Times, “Retiree flood waits in aerospace wings” http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/boeingaerospace/2004174511_jobsage10.html )

Roughly a quarter of the nation's 637,000 aerospace workers could be eligible for retirement this year, raising fears that America could face a serious skills shortage in the factories that churn out commercial and military aircraft. "It's a looming issue that's getting more serious year by year," said Marion Blakey, chief executive of the Aerospace Industries Association. "These are real veterans. It's a hard work force to replace." The association, which represents aircraft manufacturers and suppliers, has designated the potential skills drain as one of its top 10 priorities in this year's presidential race. One of the major aerospace unions is embracing the issue in a rare alliance between labor and management. "It's not a problem that's coming. It's here," said Frank Larkin, spokesman for the 720,000-member International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. The issue particularly resonates in aircraft-manufacturing centers such as the Puget Sound region, the Dallas-Fort Worth area, St. Louis and Wichita, Kan., which bills itself as the "Air Capital of the World." "Obviously, we are concerned that we have a large portion of our work force that in five years, 10 years, will pick up and go," said Marivel Neeley, the senior manager of equal-opportunity programs at Lockheed Martin's plant in Fort Worth.


The most recent evidence proves – shortage of workers is already affecting the industry

Koopmans 7/15 (Kelly Koopmans, staff writer for the Seattle Post Intelligencer, “Cantwell: As work force retires, who will build Boeing's planes?” http://www.seattlepi.com/local/komo/article/Cantwell-As-work-force-retires-who-will-build-3709079.php#ixzz20tBAbziM )

Boeing has a big job ahead after last week's announcement of airplane orders and commitments worth billions of dollars. Now, as thousands of aerospace workers prepare to retire, U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell is wondering where the skilled workers will come from to build those planes. During a tour of Machinists Inc., a precision machining company and Boeing supplier in Seattle, Cantwell announced she will be holding a Senate Aviation Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., this week on aviation competitiveness. "Over the next 20 years, the aerospace industry is expected to grow by more than $3 trillion," said Cantwell. "I'm bringing together aviation and aerospace leaders to talk about what they think must be done for the U.S. to remain on top of these industries."


And, now is key – 15% will retire by the end of the year

AIA 2011 (Aerospace Industries of America, “Workforce”, http://www.aia-aerospace.org/assets/ip_workforce_2011.pdf )

ISSUE: Our nation is not producing enough qualified workers to fill important

jobs at aerospace companies and the shortfall will increase as retirements grow.

BACKGROUND The major long-term threat to our preeminence in aerospace comes from our own demographics. The generation of talent that won the space race and the Cold War is reaching retirement age and America is not producing the number and quality of scientists, engineers and technicians necessary to replenish those ranks. The 2005 National Academies report, Rising Above the Gathering Storm, provided a definitive statement of the problem and the challenges that must be overcome to fix it. The numbers are stark: the average age of aerospace and defense workers rose to 45.7 percent in 2010. Among our largest companies, 57 percent of the workforce is 45 or older, meaning that within 10 years well more than half of their employees will become retirement eligible. Fifteen percent of the aerospace engineering workforce will be eligible for retirement in 2012. Among our largest companies, 29.43 percent of the engineering workforce will be eligible to retire in 2016.





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