Indo-pak war causes nuclear winter GSN 10 (Global Security Newswire, a subsidiary of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization, Mar 16, [gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20100315_4193.php] AD: 7-9-11, jam)
Computer modeling suggests a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would block out the sun with large amounts of airborne debris, disrupting global agriculture and leading to the starvation of around 1 billion people, Scientific American reported in its January issue (see GSN, March 4). (Mar. 16) - A 1971 French nuclear test at Mururoa Atoll. Climatic changes caused by an Indian-Pakistani nuclear conflict could lead to the deaths of hundreds of millions of people, computer models suggest (Getty Images). The nuclear winter scenario assumes that cities and industrial zones in each nation would be hit by 50 bombs the size of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, in World War II. Although some analysts have suggested a nuclear exchange would involve fewer weapons, researchers who created the computer models contended that the panic from an initial nuclear exchange could cause a conflict to quickly escalate. Pakistan, especially, mightattempt to fire all of its nuclear weapons in case India's conventional forces overtake the country's military sites, according to Peter Lavoy, an analyst with the Naval Postgraduate School. The nuclear blasts and subsequent blazes and radiation could kill more than 20 million people in India and Pakistan, according to the article. Assuming that each of the 100 bombs would burn an area equivalent to that seen at Hiroshima, U.S. researchers determined that the weapons used against Pakistan would generate 3 million metric tons of smoke and the bombs dropped on India would produce 4 million metric tons of smoke. Winds would blow the material around the world, covering the atmosphere over all continents within two weeks. The reduction in sunlight would cause temperatures to drop by 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit for several years and precipitation to drop by one-tenth. The climate changes and other environmental effects of the nuclear war would have a devastating affect on crop yields unless farmers prepared for such an occurrence in advance. The observed effects of volcano eruptions, smoke from forest fires and other events support the findings of the computer modeling, the researchers said. "A nuclear war could trigger declines in yield nearly everywhere at once, and a worldwide panic could bring the global agricultural trading system to a halt, with severe shortages in many places. Around 1 billion people worldwide who now live on marginal food supplies would be directly threatened with starvation by a nuclear war between India and Pakistan or between other regional nuclear powers," wrote Alan Robock, a climatology professor at Rutgers University in New Jersey, and Owen Brian Toon, head of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Department at the University of Colorado at Boulder. "The combination of nuclear proliferation, political instability and urban demographics may constitute one of the greatest dangers to the stability of society since the dawn of humans," they added. "Only abolition of nuclear weapons will prevent a potential nightmare. Immediate reduction of U.S. and Russian arsenals to the same levels as other nuclear powers (a few hundred) would maintain their deterrence, reduce the possibility of nuclear winter and encourage the rest of the world to continue to work toward the goal of elimination" (Robock/Toon, Scientific American/Rutgers University, January 2010).
Atmosphere ! – Pakistan
Ozone depletion uniquely hurts Pakistan The Daily Times 11 (The Daily Times, Pakistani News Agency, Jan 30, [www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011%5C01%5C30%5Cstory_30-1-2011_pg11_9] AD: 7-9-11, jam)
ISLAMABAD: Ozone Layer is essential for life on earth, but unfortunately it is being depleted due to a few man-made chemicals. Pakistan is fully committed to its international obligations towards protecting the earth and its fragile atmosphere, Minister for Environment Hameedullah Jan Afridi said here on Saturday. Afridi stated this while addressing a ‘Workshop for Youth Awareness on Ozone Layer and Montreal Protocol Activities in Pakistan’. He said after adopting appropriate policy measures, Pakistan was making all-out efforts to achieve its target for phasing out the use of Ozone depleting substances and conversion of industries concerned into Ozone-friendly technology. Ministry of Environment Joint Secretary Administration and Coordination Iftikhar Rahim, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa EPA DG Bashir, International Cooperation Joint Secretary Abid Ali, Advisor on Climate Change Chaudhry Qamar Zaman, concerned stakeholders, representatives from different industries and students participated in the workshop. The minister said that Ozone Layer depletion in the atmosphere had been a worldwide concern for the last more than two decades. As many as 196 member countries of the world have signed the Montreal Protocol which shows the commitment from entire world to tackle this core issue. He said that environment today was on the top agenda of every country. The global warming and climate change have become a reality and “we in the developing countries are most vulnerable to these”. It is encouraging to see that world community has decided to face this menace, collectively. Several protocols like the Kyoto protocol have been signed to limit the emissions of green house gases and minimize the worse impacts of climate change, the minister added.
Environmental stability prevents terrorism and Indo-Pak conflict Vaughn et al 10 (Bruce, analyst in South-East Asian and South Asian Affairs with the Congressional Research Service (CRS), Nicole T. Carter and Pervaze A. Sheikh, Specialists in Natural Resources Policy with the CRS, and Renee Johnson, Specialist in Agricultural Policy with the CRS, Aug 3, [www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41358.pdf] AD: 7-9-11, jam)
Pakistan is of great interest to the national security of the United States. U.S. interests are primarily focused on Pakistan’s ability to control its territory to prevent it from being used as a haven for anti-American terroristsand prevent inter-state conflict with India that would be regionally destabilizing or worse, given their nuclear weapons. As a result, a stable Pakistan that can extend its full writ throughout the land in order to prevent various regions of Pakistan from becoming ungoverned areas from which anti-Western terrorists can operate is of direct national security importance. To this end, U.S. assistance may increasingly take into consideration the potential negative impact that environmental stress, particularly water shortages and its impact on food security, may have as a threat multiplier. There is a potential need to prevent these exacerbating environmental factors from becoming the tipping point leading to a more chaotic situation in Pakistan. In April 2010 Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke stated that the United States was indeed putting more emphasis on energy and water issues in its assistance programs with Pakistan. (For an indepth discussion of U.S. assistance to Pakistan see CRS Report RL33498, Pakistan-U.S. Relations, by K. Alan Kronstadt.) It has been argued by at least one source that because water shortages present the greatest future threat to the viability of Pakistan, U.S. development assistance would be best focused on the improvement of Pakistan’s water infrastructure.