High oil prices for jet fuel threatens airline industry
Sonya Bryskine 12, staff writer at the Epoch Times,http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/business/oil-price-rise-to-squeeze-airline-industry-210674.html,”Oil Price Rise to Squeeze Airline Industry “, 3/27/12 /jeong
Airline profits are expected to plunge 14 percent in 2012 to $3 billion, as oil prices continue to soar, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said this week. IATA has downgraded its profit prediction from the December forecast by $500 million. The ongoing eurozone debt crisis and rising oil prices have been the major risks for the airline industry, said Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general in a press release. The cost of Brent crude oil is forecast to reach $115 per barrel in 2012. This will push fuel to 34 percent of average operating costs and see the overall industry fuel bill rise to $213 billion. Political tensions in the Gulf region increase the risk of significantly higher oil prices, the implications of which could put the industry into losses, says IATA. Airline performance is closely tied to global GDP growth. Historically, when GDP growth drops below 2 percent, the global airline industry returns a collective loss.¶ “With GDP growth projections now at 2.0 percent and an anemic margin of 0.5 percent, it will not take much of a shock to push the industry into the red for 2012,” said Tyler.¶ Reflecting the decline in the industry, Emirates—the biggest airline by international traffic—announced that it expects more carriers to go bankrupt this year. “We can reel off a whole load of airlines that are teetering on the brink or are really gone,” Tim Clark, the Dubai-based carrier’s president, said according to Bloomberg. “Roll this forward to Christmas, another eight or nine months, and we’re going to see this industry in serious trouble.”¶ American Airlines is restructuring after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and India’s Kingfisher Airlines Ltd. may lose its license as it struggles with cash shortages and losses. In Spain, Spanair SA collapsed on Jan. 27, while a Hungarian carrier Malev Zrt. also went bust this year.Clark said some private airlines will need to be bailed out by governments in the countries where they’re based, though that will raise aid issues with the European Union and other parties.¶ In the United States, more filings for Chapter 11 protection are likely, while smaller carriers operating in the Indian Ocean region and in Africa face “difficulties,” the executive said.
Economy Adv Exts - Jobs
NextGen critical to uphold civil aviation; lack of air traffic control risks millions of jobs
Aerospace Industries Association of America 11 (National Aerospace Week, “Aerospace and Defense: Second to None”, 9/17/11, AD: 07/09/12, http://www.nationalaerospaceweek.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/whitepaper.pdf | Kushal)
Civil aviation is an economic engine directly and indirectly contributing more than $1.3 trillion — or 5.6 percent of gross domestic product — to the U.S. economy. It supports nearly 11 million jobs with a payroll of $369 billion. 9 Civil aviation contributes positively to the U.S. trade balance, creates high paying jobs, keeps just-intime business models viable and connects all Americans to friends, family and business opportunities. All of that economic activity passes through the nation’s air traffic system. As long as the system can accommodate the rising demand for air travel and just-in-time express delivery, the growth of jobs and economic activity associated with civil aviation will continue. Our current system is safe, but antiquated and highly inefficient. We need to replace our 1960s-era air traffic control technology with a much more accurate and efficient 21st century satellite-based Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). NextGen is essential to helping airlines return to profitability. It is critical for reducing fuel consumption and airplane emissions. Without NextGen, our national airspace will remain cluttered and inefficient and undermine the economic benefits of America’s commercial aviation industry. Excluding the costs of delays due to system inefficiency, failure to institute NextGen could cost the U.S. about $35 billion in annual economic loss by 2014 and as much as $52 billion in annual economic loss by 2024 — and that’s only in unmet demand and lost productivity. Businesses related to or dependent on aviation risk losing as many as two million jobs every five years if the nation doesn’t implement NextGen. 9 The Economic Impact of Civil Aviation on the U.S. Economy, FAA, Dec. 2009. 2011 Aerospace Industies Association of America, Inc. 6 The entire U.S. fleet of civil aircraft can be NextGen equipped in less than three years for less funding than has been committed to surface transportation infrastructure projects. Experts say with an equipped fleet and a commitment to accelerate supporting ground infrastructure, NextGen could be in place in five to eight years instead of 10 to 15. Full NextGen deployment requires the production and installation of hundreds of thousands of high-tech avionic products assembled by skilled workers in U.S. factories and maintenance stations in every state. Without these products, our National Airspace System cannot upgrade to satellite-based navigation and will lag behind systems in other countries. Building and deploying NextGen equipment, procedures and infrastructure could create approximately 153,600 jobs. 10 A viable aviation sector enhances economic activity in a wide number of industries outside aviation, including travel, tourism and industries that rely on just-in-time global inventories and shipping capability.
Next Gen could be a key job stimulator - would make the US a leader in the global aviation industry
Air Capital Insider News 09, Air Capital Insider News, http://blogs.kansas.com/aviation/2009/11/24/aviation-associations-tell-congress-nextgen-funding-will-spur-jobs/,”Aviation groups tell Congress NextGen funding will spur jobs". jeong
President Barack Obama and Congress are looking for ways to accelerate job growth and civil and travel associations have a suggestion: Fund the Next Generation Air Traffic Systems, commonly called NextGen.¶ The funding would finance switching the U.S. air traffic control system from ground-based radar to a satellite-based infrastructure. The change would create thousands of jobs for engineers, software developers and other high-tech workers, the groups say. Pilots, maintenance facilities and travel and tourism companies also would benefit from the change, they say.¶ The organizations sent a letter to House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman James Oberstar (D-Minn.) and Ranking Member John Mica (R-Fla.). It was signed by 19 associations, according to the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association.¶ Besides job creation and boosting general aviation, the change would improve aviation safety, reduce delays and cut carbon emissions. It also would help keep the U.S. as a world leader in aviation, they say.¶ The European Union, Australia and Canada are surpassing the U.S. in implementing NextGen.¶ “Other countries like China and India will look to either the U.S. or Europe for leadership as they develop their air traffic control systems,” the letter said. “If the U.S does not demonstrate leadership in deploying these technologies, opportunities for U.S. manufacturers and workers will be lost.”
Next Gen is key to stimulating job growth and US competitivness - improving airline infrastructure will lead to job creation
US Senate Committee on Finance 2011
http://www.finance.senate.gov/newsroom/chairman/release/?id=2ed23bba-7453-4a0a-b8f5-972e62c561f6,Baucus Touts NextGen Job-Creation Benefits, Consumer Protections,2/3/11, United States Senate Committee on Finance. jeong
Washington, DC – Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) explored the potential for job creation, improved safety and reduced travel delays that could be realized from investments in NextGen, the new, satellite-based air traffic system, at a hearing today. Baucus has long worked to pass a long-term extension of the fund to provide the resources the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) needs to improve air travel and modernize America’s airports, while supporting jobs throughout the air travel industry. ¶ “We cannot afford to neglect our aviation infrastructure,” Baucus said. “Modernizing our runways and air-traffic control will improve safety, protect consumers and create jobs. Modern and efficient aviation will reduce travel delays, lower costs and improve access to rural communities, including those in my home state of Montana.”¶ An FAA-commissioned report issued last year found flight delays cost the U.S. economy $32.9 billion in 2007. By 2030, the U.S. air-traffic system will handle an estimated 191,000 flights every day – an increase of 49,000 flights daily – and 1 billion passengers a year.¶ The Airport and Airway Trust Fund supports the FAA’s programs and activities, including the implementation of the NextGen satellite air traffic network, which will replace outdated radar systems. Baucus touted NextGen, the new GPS-based air traffic system, as a way to improve air safety and efficiency while advancing U.S. competitiveness and creating jobs. Reauthorizing the FAA legislation, with investments in NextGen, is estimated to create 280,000 jobs in airports throughout the country.¶ “NextGen’s precision will allow us to significantly upgrade our aviation infrastructure and better use our airspace. Implementation of the NextGen system is critical for millions of air passengers’ safety, for jobs and for advancing U.S. competitiveness,” Baucus said.¶ The Senate passed an FAA reauthorization bill last year by a 93-0 vote, but the bill expired when the 111th Congress adjourned. Congress will have to pass a new bill in the 112th Congress before the trust fund can be reauthorized.
Investing in the aerospace industry key to job creation
Blakely 12 [Marion C - president of the Aerospace Industries Association and former FAA Administrator, "350,000 Aerospace and Defense Workers' Jobs at Stake", February 13, http://traveltips.ulitzer.com/node/2164551] ttate
The budget released by the administration today is not a shot over the bow of the American aerospace and defense worker – it's a direct hit. As a result of the approximately $487 billion, ten-year cut to the defense budget alone, buying power to procure technologies that fuel U.S. military strength will be reduced in 2013 by approximately $20 billion. The American warfighter and our national security are not the only victims of this first, drastic result of the 2011 Budget Control Act. The budget released today takes direct aim at the first wave of 350,000 aerospace and defense workers who will be out of work if Congress does not find a solution to the sequestration trigger being pulled in 321 days. In the mean time, hundreds of companies that together form the "defense industrial base" have already begun to downsize in response to the cuts already enacted. And lest we forget, sequestration-driven budget cuts will most certainly hit the FAA and NASA as well. More aerospace companies and workers in all 50 states will share the pain of those 350,000 employees projected to be jobless following a $1 trillion cut to the defense budget. The solution to our country's budget crisis does not lie in further indiscriminate cuts to defense that put our country at risk and will throw hundreds of thousands of skilled workers out of their jobs. The solution does not lie in reversing progress toward safer, more efficient air travel made through investments to date in the FAA's NextGen air traffic management system. And renting Russian rockets to take American astronauts into space sends American space jobs offshore and poses an immediate threat to our country's goal of maintaining a space program that is second to none in the world. There is no rocket science to finding the only solution to America's budget crisis. Reform of entitlement programs and current tax policies are the only answers to a multi-trillion dollar budget deficit. The notion that adequate spending on our country's defense, infrastructure and future in space is in any way "discretionary" is, simply put, dangerous. The one-million aerospace and defense workers in America are proud, patriotic, well-educated and highly skilled. As the election season heats up, current and aspiring members of Congress will face these one-million voters who demand an answer to the central question of today's budget crisis – are those we elect to office prepared to make the tough decisions on realistic, long-term budget reform? The thousands of aerospace and defense workers who find themselves out of work this year as a result of the budget crisis will undoubtedly be the first to demand an answer.
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