Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
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- Instability Impact
- Neg Answers- Economies
Economy ImpactGlobal economic collapse causes nuclear war and extinction (Christopher Lewis, PhD, 1998, “The Coming Age of Scarcity”, pg. 129) Most critics would argue, probably correctly, that instead of allowing underdeveloped countries to withdraw from the global economy and undermine the economies of the developed world, the United States, Europe, and Japan and others will fight neocolonial wars to force these countries to remain within this collapsing global economy. These neocolonial wars will result in mass death, suffering, and even regional nuclear wars. If First World countries choose military confrontation and political repression to maintain the global economy, then we may see mass death and genocide on a global scale that will make the deaths of World War II pale in comparison. However, these neocolonial wars, fought to maintain the developed nations’ economic and political hegemony, will cause the final collapse of our global industrial civilization. These wars will so damage the complex, economic and trading networks and squander material, biological, and energy resources that they will undermine the global economy and its ability to support the earth’s 6 to 8 billion people. This would be the worst-case scenario for the collapse of global civilization.
Instability ImpactParty instability leads to nuke war (The Epoch Times, 8/5/05, “The CCP’s Last-ditch Gamble: Biological and Nuclear War Hundreds of millions of deaths proposed”, http://en.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-5/30931.html) Since the Party’s life is above all else, it would not be surprising if the CCP resorts to the use of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in its attempt to extend its life. The CCP, which disregards human life, would not hesitate to kill two hundred million Americans, along with seven or eight hundred million Chinese, to achieve its ends. These speeches let the public see the CCP for what it really is. With evil filling its every cell the CCP intends to wage a war against humankind in its desperate attempt to cling to life. That is the main theme of the speeches. This theme is murderous and utterly evil. In China we have seen beggars who coerced people to give them money by threatening to stab themselves with knives or pierce their throats with long nails. But we have never, until now, seen such a gangster who would use biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons to threaten the world, that all will die together with him. This bloody confession has confirmed the CCP’s nature: that of a monstrous murderer who has killed 80 million Chinese people and who now plans to hold one billion people hostage and gamble with their lives. Neg Answers- EconomiesNo risk of U.S.-China war- shared interests and interdependent economies guarantees. (The People’s Daily, 6/21/04, “China oil strategy not conflicting with U.S. interest”, http://english.people.com.cn/200406/21/eng20040621_146985.html) There is a growing recognition in the United States that China's growth has been a major factor in reinvigorating the global economy, including the US economy. Chinese economic development is increasingly seen as a positive factor for the US - especially as there is a good deal of Chinese investment in US debt as well as increasing orders for US commodities from China. So, in short, there is some fear here that problems with energy supplies in China may lead to an economic slow-down that will in turn dampen the US and global economies. (2) Does Americans fear that China's oil strategy shift may danger American national interest? What has the American government done to deal with this critical issue? At this juncture China's oil strategy shift is not seen as a threat to American national interests - especially given the increasing consensus that Chinese economic growth should continue. However, there is great concern in the US about increased international dependency on Middle East oil and about the security of global oil supplies as a result of instability and the potential for terrorist attacks on production and export facilities in the Middle East - especially in Saudi Arabia. The major fear is that a major rupture in the supply chain from Saudi Arabia in particular would lead to prohibitive oil prices that would stifle the global economy, and also encourage increased competition and even conflict over oil and energy supplies in energy-poor regions like East Asia. (3) Can you name a few major competitors in the world oil market? Has the competition among the major oil consuming countries entered into a critical stage? The major oil consumers at this juncture are the United States, the European Union countries, China, India, Japan, and South Korea etc., with most of the future growth in demand anticipated to be in the developing economies of Asia - especially China and India. The transportation sector is the main driver for oil demand - especially given the continued growth in car ownership, with only the tip of the iceberg of potential demand currently satisfied in China and India. Transportation is the largest consumer of oil in the US at 68% of current consumption. It accounts for 48% of world oil consumption and if automobile usage follows current trends, this is expected to increase to around 56% in the next two decades. Only a leap to new hybrid/fuel cell technologies in the developing economies, or government strictures on automobile ownership, will buck this trend. We have not reached a critical stage in competition between major oil consuming countries. Although a major oil shock in the Middle East could change that, and this is something that the US and other primary consumers very much want to avoid. (4) Some experts predict that once Mainland China declared a war with Taiwan, Americans would try to cut off China's oil supply chain. How do you think of this possibility? Blockades and sanctions on strategic supplies have been a traditional tool of governments during conflicts, but they are also difficult to impose and very difficult to maintain even with broad international support. The US government very much wants to avoid any conflict between Mainland China and Taiwan - and especially a declaration of war, which would be ruinous for everyone. American policy is currently focused on this issue of trying to avert conflict. (5) What role does the oil play in the relations between China and its neighbors? Do you think the oil may trigger disputes between China and its neighboring countries? The disputes that have been unfolding at the moment between China and its neighbors on South China Sea are in fact a fight for oil. Clearly oil and energy security issues play a role in relations between China and its neighbors, in the current international environment, especially when China, Japan and other neighbors are all looking for supply options closer to home within the region to lessen dependency on imports from the Middle East. Each country in the Asia-Pacific region also wants to increase its own domestic reserves and production options. The disputes in the South China Sea are mirrored in other regions globally - including in Africa, and in the Caspian Basin, where there have been disputes among Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, for example, over ownership of sub-sea oil resources. (6) According to Chinese oil strategy, China supports the Middle East, Africa, Central Asia and even Russia to build oil pipelines. Does this collide with American oil strategy? This does not collide with American oil strategy at all. US energy security policy is focused on increasing global supply options and bringing more oil to world markets to ensure that there is enough supply for all major consumers to mitigate competition and avoid conflicts over oil resources. (7) How do you predict a possible clash and even war between China and America in the field of oil? At this stage I don't predict a clash between China and America, especially if current policies continue and the Chinese and US economies continue to draw together with increasing trade, investment and other interdependencies. Over the last 10 years, the US has also been able to move away from some of its former dependency on Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf and has achieved considerable geographic diversity in its oil supply options. The Persian Gulf now accounts for only about one quarter of US crude oil imports (54% of US oil is imported). And fully 60 countries have increased their oil production and now supply the United States with oil. Half of US crude oil imports come from the Americas. Although Saudi Arabia remains the largest single US supplier, it is very closely followed by America's neighbors - Mexico, Canada, and Venezuela (in that order). And Africa as a region now supplies more than 15% of US crude imports. Europe (Norway, UK etc.) supplies just under 7%. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 9.54 Mb. Share with your friends:
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