Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
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- 2NC UNIQUENESS BOMB—OIL PRICES RISING
- 2NC LINK—AE CAUSES OIL PRICES TO REDUCE
- HIGH PRICES KEY TO NIGERIAN ECONOMY
Nigeria Oil DA3) A strong African economy is key to sustaining the US economy through trade. Susan Rice, Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, 1998 “U.S. Interests in Africa: Today's Perspective”, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1584/is_10_9/ai_53461437/print For the protection of people everywhere, we cannot allow Africa to remain the world's soft and most accessible underbelly for terrorists and others determined to do evil. At the same time, we must press ahead to achieve our second principal policy goal in Africa; that is, accelerating Africa's full integration into the global economy. Increasingly, the U.S. economy is fueled by exports. As we grapple with the consequences of turmoil in both our traditional and emerging markets from Asia to Brazil to Russia, the United States cannot afford to write off any potential new export market. A vast and growing market of 700 million potential consumers, Africa is in many ways the last frontier for U.S. exporters and investors. For, despite areas of instability, Africa's economic trends remain positive. Two-thirds of African nations--roughly 3 dozen countries--have implemented economic reforms to open markets, stabilize currencies, and reduce inflation. African governments have privatized over 2,000 state enterprises in the past few years, raising over $2.3 billion in government revenue to invest in infrastructure, education, and health care. The U.S. relies heavily on the African Continent for petroleum and strategic minerals. In volume terms, nearly 14% of U.S. crude oil imports come from the continent, as compared to almost 18% from the Middle East. Within a decade, Africa is projected to be the source of well over 20% of our imported oil. America's commercial interests in Africa will deepen as U.S. companies continue to tap this nascent market. American businesses exported over $6 billion worth of goods last year to Africa and imported more than $16 billion. The U.S. is now Africa's second-largest industrial supplier. U.S. companies have edged out European and Asian competition to complete major deals in the region. Examples abound: Coca-Cola recently made a $35 million investment in a production and distribution facility in Angola; a consortium comprised of Enron and the Industrial Development Corporation signed a $2 billion agreement to construct a steel plant in Mozambique; and, in West Africa, Ghana's stock exchange--although tiny--is one of the top performers in the world. A visionary economic policy toward Africa is in our own long-term interest. 4) The impact is nuclear war. Mead 1998 – Senior Fellow Council on Foreign Relations (LA Times, 8-23) Even with stock markets tottering around the world, the president and the Congress seem determined to spend the next six months arguing about dress stains. Too bad. The United States and the world are facing what could grow into the greatest threat to world peace in 60 years. Forget suicide car bombers and Afghan fanatics. It's the financial markets, not the terrorist training camps that pose the biggest immediate threat to world peace. How can this be? Think about the mother of all global meltdowns: the Great Depression that started in 1929. U.S. stocks began to collapse in October, staged a rally, then the market headed south big time. At the bottom, the Dow Jones industrial average had lost 90% of its value. Wages plummeted, thousands of banks and brokerages went bankrupt, millions of people lost their jobs. There were similar horror stories worldwide. But the biggest impact of the Depression on the United States--and on world history--wasn't money. It was blood: World War II, to be exact. The Depression brought Adolf Hitler to power in Germany, undermined the ability of moderates to oppose Joseph Stalin's power in Russia, and convinced the Japanese military that the country had no choice but to build an Asian empire, even if that meant war with the United States and Britain. That's the thing about depressions. They aren't just bad for your 401(k). Let the world economy crash far enough, and the rules change. We stop playing "The Price is Right" and start up a new round of "Saving Private Ryan." 2NC UNIQUENESS BOMB—OIL PRICES RISINGOil prices rising globally—Thailand concurs Bangkok Post, July 17, 2008. “Siam Cement worries oil prices retard Thai economy” http://www.bangkokpost.com/170708_Business/17Jul2008_biz44.php NAREERAT WIRIYAPONG Siam Cement Group (SCG), Thailand's largest industrial conglomerate, has expressed concern over the Thai economy in the face of rising of oil prices. President and chief executive Kan Trakulhoon said the gross domestic product (GDP) growth projected earlier was likely to be revised down soon, because oil was now approaching US$150 a barrel. ''Seriously, I don't think Thailand's GDP growth can hit the target of 5-6%. The government needs to revise down the figure soon,'' he said yesterday. SCG also expects to revise its revenue projection to cope with oil prices at $150 a barrel as a worst-case scenario, against $130 in an earlier forecast. However, Mr Kan declined to give specific figures. ''Oil prices are rising so fast, we need to keep an eye on them to assess the situation,'' he said. He also voiced concern over the effect possible double-digit inflation could have on the overall economy. He did not think the Bank of Thailand's decision yesterday to lift its key interest rate by a quarter-point to 3.5% would have much of an impact on business operators. Oil prices high Wallstreet Journal, July10 2008. “Green Ink: High prices, rising demand” Crude futures held near $136 despite fresh Iranian missle tests, but relentless global demand growth could still pressure oil prices, Bloomberg reports. And growth there is: The International Energy Agency revised its global demand growth forecast upward Thursday, and pointed to the developing world, the WSJ reports (sub reqd.). Certainly not to American drivers: High gas prices pushed U.S. gasoline demand to a five-year low over the holiday weekend, the WSJ reports (sub reqd.). But get this—U.S. gas prices are relatively cheap compared with most of the rest of the world, the L.A. Times reports. Like in Britain, where higher gas prices alone are pushing drivers into smaller and cleaner cars, the Guardian reports. 2NC LINK—AE CAUSES OIL PRICES TO REDUCEAlternative energy lowers oil prices Newsday, April 7, 1996 IF SCIENTISTS discovered tomorrow that a clean and safe source of infinitely renewable energy could be cheaply derived from, say, ordinary sea water, we all know it would be an unmitigated boon for mankind. Well, not exactly. Because any such invention would necessarily cause a collapse of oil prices, and Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma would become basket states. In Mexico, where petroleum is the chief national patrimony, the floor under a fragile economy, would disintegrate. The Middle East would become a destabilized mess as oil-rich regimes lost the resources through which they now control their populations. Russia and the many former constituent republics of the Soviet Union would lose export earnings critically important to the survival of their democracies. Billions invested in the extraction of North Sea oil would lose its value. Ripple effects running through the financial system as a result of the downsizing and bankruptcy of much of the existing oil industry are simply too terrifying to contemplate. HIGH PRICES KEY TO NIGERIAN ECONOMYOil key to Nigerian economy—empirically proven Biodun Adedipe, Ph.D. Chief Consultant, B. Adedipe Associates Limited, Victoria Island, Lagos, Nigeria, 2004. “THE IMPACT OF OIL ON NIGERIA’S ECONOMIC POLICY FORMULATION” http://www.odi.org.uk/events/nigeria_2004/Adedipe.pdf The massive increase in oil revenue as an aftermath of the Middle-East war of 1973 created unprecedented, unexpected and unplanned wealth for Nigeria. Then began the dramatic shift of policies from a holistic approach to benchmarking them against the state of the oil sector. Now, in order to make the business environment conducive for new investments, the government began investing the newfound wealth in socio-economic infrastructure across the country, especially in the urban areas. As well, the services sector grew. The relative attractiveness of the urban centres made many able-bodied Nigerians to migrate from the hinterland, abandoning their farmlands for the cities and hoping to partake in the growing and prosperous (oil-driven) urban economy. This created social problems of congestion, pollution, unemployment and crimes. The national currency, Naira, strengthened as foreign exchange inflows outweighed outflows, and foreign reserves were built up. Up until 1985, the Naira was stronger than the US Dollar, as shown in Appendix III. This encouraged import-oriented consumption habit that soon turned Nigeria into a perennial net importer, which became a major problem when oil earnings decreased with lower international oil prices. External reserves collapsed, fiscal deficits mounted and external borrowing ensued with the “jumbo loans” taken in 1979. Most of Nigeria’s macro-economic indices became unstable and worrisome. Nigerian economy heavily dependent on oil revenues Akerele Taiwo, Banker, Policy Economist and Director at the Center for Values In Leadership based in Victoria Island, Lagos, 2008 “The Nigerian Economy: 2007 in Review and Outlook 2008”http://www.gbengasesan.com/blog/?p=212 Against expectations and projections, the Nigerian economy is still largely dependent on revenues from oil, this is further underscored by the 2008 budget recently presented to the National Assembly, while the oil sector is expected to contribute 80% or 3.63trillion the non-oil sector which comprises of Agriculture, Manufacturing, Solid Minerals, Services and other invisibles combined will fill the 20% funding gap which comes to a paltry sum of 910billion. The implication of this is that oil revenues as it is presently will either make or mar Nigeria’s developmental dream sequel to the transient nature of oil prices. This also negates the over emphasized government commitment towards diversifying the Nigerian economy from a mono product to a multi product economy Niger relies heavily on crude oil production Biodun Adedipe, Ph.D. Chief Consultant, B. Adedipe Associates Limited, Victoria Island, Lagos, Nigeria, 2004. “THE IMPACT OF OIL ON NIGERIA’S ECONOMIC POLICY FORMULATION” http://www.odi.org.uk/events/nigeria_2004/Adedipe.pdf Crude oil was first discovered in commercial quantities in Nigeria in 1956, while actual production started in 1958. It became the dominant resource in the mid-1970s. On-shore oil exploration accounts for about 65% of total production and it is found mainly in the swampy areas of the Niger Delta, while the remaining 35% represents offshore production and involves drilling for oil in the deep waters of the continental shelf. Nigeria has proven reserves of about 32 billion barrels of predominantly low sulphur light crude, which at current rate of exploitation could last another 38 years. The intention is to expand the reserves to 40 billion barrels and production capacity to 4 million barrels per day (mbd). Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 9.54 Mb. Share with your friends:
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