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AFF – NON-UNIQUENON-UNIQUE: DOUBTS ABOUT BUILDING THE PIPELINE NOW HardNews, Still in the pipeline, June, 2008 A number of steering committee meetings were held and it was felt that for the project to be viable, it should be extended to India. India agreed to be an observer and only recently became a member, after which the project was renamed as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project. The cost has now escalated to over $7 billion. India's stated reluctance has been that it was not sure the gas reserves in Dauletabad were adequate. Unstated has been the politically unstable situation in Afghanistan and related security fears. It is commonly held that the writ of the government of Afghanistan runs mainly in the capital city of Kabul and not in the badlands elsewhere. NON-UNIQUE: THE TAPI PIPELINE WILL NEVER BE BUILT NOW Registan.net, Unocal Must Be Kicking Itself, 12/10/07 The potential collaboration over an LNG pipeline could shift matters a bit. If Pakistan must foster security in the southern half of Afghanistan--the very heart of the Taliban's growing territory--in order to derive income from this new project, then it might be cajoled into cracking down further on the extremists and maybe, perhaps, funding some long term initiatives to undercut the environments of extremism, like maybe schools. Who are we kidding? This will never get built--not so long as India and Pakistan mistrust each other so deeply, and certainly not so long as the Taliban control Afghanistan. Perhaps we could all reconsider the TransCaspian Pipeline? NON-UNIQUE: THE TAPI PIPELINE CAN NEVER BE BUILT Gazpromnation, Verso Il TAPI?, 4/24/08 However, the security situation in Afghanistan, long a major obstacle to TAPI, remains as much a problem today as it's ever been. "If we consider the present security situation of Afghanistan, I think it is too much to consider that this project can be done," Afghan analyst Waliullah Rahmani tells RFE/RL's Turkmen Service. "It will cross from Kandahar and Herat. The southern cities and provinces of Afghanistan are completely unstable." Nonetheless, oil ministers, officials, and experts from the four countries have begun to discuss a range of issues regarding the proposed project during two days of talks in Islamabad. AFF – NON-UNIQUENON-UNIQUE: TAPI PIPELINE IMPOSSIBLE TO BUILD DUE TO AFGHAN INSURGENCY Tribune India, Engagement for energy, Gas pipeline from Iran is a high-stakes game, 08 (http://www.tribuneindia.com/2008/20080428/edit.htm) The troubled and insurgent regions of Eastern Iran, and Western Pakistan's Balochistan province, are still an area of concern for the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline. India is also holding parallel talks to join the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- Pakistan-India pipeline (TAPI), but insurgency in southern Afghanistan's Taliban region increases the uncertainty factor. AFF – IMPACT INEVITABLEIMPACT INEVITABLE, TERRORIST SUPPORTING IRAN IS INCREASING ITS INFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST PajamasMedia, Iran's Most Powerful Weapon is Energy, 4/30/08 Ahmadinejad's current visit to Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka has the clear goal of solidifying Iran's energy security policy -- a way of thinking that evolved as part of the lessons learned in Iranian military circles, following the end of the country's eight-year war against Iraq. During that war, Iran watched its neighbors side with Iraq, because they did not rely on Iran for anything. After the war, Tehran decided to prevent this from happening again, by making regional economies as reliant on Iran as possible. Therefore, Iran's energy security concept does not solely rely on Iran's capability to sink Western oil tankers That policy rests on getting key countries hooked on Iranian gas; in some cases it is sold at below market prices. By doing so, Tehran aims to deter energy-hungry neighbors, many of whom are going through an economic boom, from backing strong economic sanctions against Tehran. It also aims to prevent them from allowing their territory to be used by the U.S., if Washington decides to pursue a military attack against their country. IMPACT INEVITABLE: IRAN HAS INCREASED ITS INFLUENCE ENORMOUSLY OVER US ALLIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST PajamasMedia, Iran's Most Powerful Weapon is Energy, 4/30/08 So far, Iran has Kuwait, Oman, and Turkey on its client list. It is also in negotiations with the United Arab Emirates. The pipeline has already been built; the only outstanding issue is the price, which is being negotiated. These countries are important U.S. allies, whose support will be absolutely crucial if the UN hopes to impose any meaningful economic sanctions against the administration in Tehran. Ahmadinejad arrived in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad on the morning of April 28, in order to bring another important U.S. and Israeli ally onto Iran's client list. That country is India. Ahmadinejad is visiting Pakistan because the pipeline to India needs to run through Pakistani territory, for which Islamabad will be charging a transit fee. AFF – IMPACT INEVITABLEIMPACT INEVITABLE: IPI WILL BE BUILT FIRST, WHICH WOULD MAKE THE TAPI PIPELINE POINTLESS FOR INDIA PajamasMedia, Iran's Most Powerful Weapon is Energy, 4/30/08 To Iran's concern, Washington has been doing everything in its power to scupper the deal. In addition to applying political pressure both on India and Pakistan, the U.S. has also encouraged the Asian Development Bank to finance an alternative supplier. This one entailed selling gas from Turkmenistan in a pipeline which runs through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India (TAPI). India happily accepted the gas, and the deal, which supply India with 30 million cubic metres a day at a total cost of $5.5 billion. However, much to Tehran's delight, when Washington tried to convince India that its needs would be fully satisfied through the TAPI deal, its calls fell on deaf ears in New Delhi. The Indian administration snubbed the U.S., inviting Ahmadinejad so that outstanding issues can be resolved and the 2775km Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline, which, upon its completion by 2011 will initially supply 600 million cubic metres of gas to India each day, can be built. |