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Peak Oil Theorists Wrong – Future Oil Production
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Peak Oil Theorists Wrong – Future Oil ProductionFuture oil production will be driven by demand, not resources. Steven Schafersman, petroleum geologist, “Be Scared; Be Very Scared,”10/10/02, www.freeinquiry.com/skeptic/badgeology/energy/commentary.htm Future oil production will be demand driven, not controlled by constraints. This is the view of many in the industry, and the result will be more oil production than that predicted by the doomsayers. Some present-day constraints, such as the number of refineries, the existence of political problems in oil-producing countries that restrict production, etc., can be overcome. Also, future efficiencies of oil use, substantial displacement by natural gas and other forms of energy, a decline in use of the internal combustion engine for transportation and replacement by hybrid engines, better and more forceful national conservation policies, etc., will decrease oil demand to levels not predicted by the doomsayers. Peak Oil Theorists Wrong – Consensus Prefer our evidence – the USGS, the petroleum industry, federal agencies, and independent agencies all refute peak doomsayers. Steven Schafersman, petroleum geologist, “Be Scared; Be Very Scared,”10/10/02, www.freeinquiry.com/skeptic/badgeology/energy/commentary.htm Two other geologists can be named as public supporters of the realist (or "optimist" or "cornucopian") view that I endorse, Thomas Ahlbrandt, World Energy Project chief of the USGS and principal author of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (available at http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/energy/WorldEnergy/DDS-60/), and Peter McCabe, also of the USGS, who wrote an outstanding analysis on world energy resources for the 1998 Bulletin of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, and then replied to separate letters from Campbell, Laherrere, and R. C. Duncan in the 2001 AAPG Bulletin. The USGS world petroleum estimates and predictions are totally at odds with the doomsday advocates, yet they are the most accurate analyses that we have. They have been overwhelmingly accepted by both the petroleum industry and by our federal agencies charged with administering or making policies affecting energy supplies. Independent analyses performed by the major petroleum companies, and reported upon by Fisher, largely agree with the USGS conclusions. In what follows, I must condense the separate arguments of these geologists in a form appropriate for readers. Oil Reserves HighMainstream oil estimates account for less than half of what’s currently in the ground – it will last well into the 22nd century. Steve O’Connor, science editor at The Independent, “Oil shortage a myth, says industry insider,” 6/9/08 There is more than twice as much oil in the ground as major producers say, according to a former industry adviser who claims there is widespread misunderstanding of the way proven reserves are calculated. Although it is widely assumed that the world has reached a point where oil production has peaked and proven reserves have sunk to roughly half of original amounts, this idea is based on flawed thinking, said Richard Pike, a former oil industry man who is now chief executive of the Royal Society of Chemistry. Current estimates suggest there are 1,200 billion barrels of proven global reserves, but the industry's internal figures suggest this amounts to less than half of what actually exists. The misconception has helped boost oil prices to an all-time high, sending jitters through the market and prompting calls for oil-producing nations to increase supply to push down costs. Flying into Japan for a summit two days after prices reached a record $139 a barrel, energy ministers from the G8 countries yesterday discussed an action plan to ease the crisis. Dr Richard Pike explains his claims Explaining why the published estimates of proven global reserves are less than half the true amount, Dr Pike said there was anecdotal evidence that big oil producers were glad to go along with under-reporting of proven reserves to help maintain oil's high price. "Part of the oil industry is perfectly familiar with the way oil reserves are underestimated, but the decision makers in both the companies and the countries are not exposed to the reasons why proven oil reserves are bigger than they are said to be," he said. Dr Pike's assessment does not include unexplored oilfields, those yet to be discovered or those deemed too uneconomic to exploit. The environmental implications of his analysis, based on more than 30 years inside the industry, will alarm environmentalists who have exploited the concept of peak oil to press the urgency of the need to find greener alternatives. "The bad news is that by underestimating proven oil reserves we have been lulled into a false sense of security in terms of environmental issues, because it suggests we will have to find alternatives to fossil fuels in a few decades," said Dr Pike. "We should not be surprised if oil dominates well into the twenty-second century. It highlights a major error in energy and environmental planning – we are dramatically underestimating the challenge facing us," he said. Proven oil reserves are likely to be far larger than reported because of the way the capacity of oilfields is estimated and how those estimates are added to form the proven reserves of a company or a country. Companies add the estimated capacity of oil fields in a simple arithmetic manner to get proven oil reserves. This gives a deliberately conservative total deemed suitable for shareholders who do not want proven reserves hyped, Dr Pike said. However, mathematically it is more accurate to add the proven oil capacity of individual fields in a probabilistic manner based on the bell-shaped statistical curve used to estimate the proven, probable and possible reserves of each field. This way, the final capacity is typically more than twice that of simple, arithmetic addition, Dr Pike said. "The same also goes for natural gas because these fields are being estimated in much the same way. The world is understating the environmental challenge and appears unprepared for the difficult compromises that will have to be made." Oil Reserves HighThe majority of field experts agree that oil production will experience unhindered growth through 2020. Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère, phD in geology at U of Oxford and exploration geologist for Texaco, Scientific American, “The End of Cheap Oil,” 3/98, p. 78 http://dieoff.org/page140.htm According to most accounts, world oil reserves have marched steadily upward over the past 20 years. Extending that apparent trend into the future, one could easily conclude, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration has, that oil production will continue to rise unhindered for decades to come, increasing almost two thirds by 2020. We won’t run out of oil – more than 80% of the world’s oil supply remains untapped. Ronald Bailey, science correspondent for Reason magazine, Reason, “Peak Oil Panic,” 5/06, http://www.reason.com/news/show/36645.html But are proven reserves all that’s left? Several analyses put ultimate reserves at much higher levels. For example, the USGS undertook a comprehensive analysis of world oil reserves in 2000. It calculated that the total world endowment of recoverable oil is 3 trillion barrels. (Its figure is higher because it includes estimates for undiscovered resources and projected increases in already producing fields.) In addition, the total world endowment of natural gas is equivalent to 2.6 trillion barrels of oil, plus 330 billion barrels of natural gas liquids such as propane and butane. The USGS figures that the total world endowment of conventional oil resources is equivalent to about 5.9 trillion barrels of oil. Proven reserves of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids are equivalent to 2 trillion barrels of oil. The USGS calculates that humanity has already consumed about 1 trillion barrels of oil equivalent, which means 82 percent of the world’s endowment of oil and gas resources remains to be used. Oil Reserves HighReserve discovery is far outpacing consumption – we’re literally “running into oil.” Peter R. Odell, Professor Emeritus of International Energy Studies @ Erasmus University, “Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate the 21st Century’s Global Energy Economy,” 2004, p. 36 
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