Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
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Alt Energy SolvesStatus quo alternative energy development solves. Steven Schafersman, petroleum geologist, “Be Scared; Be Very Scared,”10/10/02, www.freeinquiry.com/skeptic/badgeology/energy/commentary.htm Now we come to alternative and renewable energy sources--wind, solar, biomass fuels, etc.--and modern energy technologies--hybrid gasoline/electrical engines, hydrogen fuel cells, etc.--that are slowly but steadily increasing their importance in the energy mix of our country. Yes, these are proportionately small now, but they are increasing faster than most people are aware. In fact, they are increasing so rapidly that many energy experts believe that they will significantly supplant fossil fuels in specific circumstances in the coming decade. The unit energy per cost factor of these alternative and renewable energy sources already equals coal and will soon equal petroleum in many cases. Once again, a decline in oil availability would not significantly affect total energy availability, as other energy sources replace the use of oil. This will happen naturally now, even before there is a decline in oil availability, since the alternative energy sources are cleaner and potentially less expensive. In fact, they would be less expensive now if they were given the appropriate tax credits due them (or fossil fuels--especially coal and crude oil--were taxed at higher than present rates) under a credible, rational, and coherent national energy policy. At this point we can add future new nuclear energy to the mix, since I have long believed that nuclear power will make a comeback. This will surely be an unhappy event for many anti-nuclear activists, but ultimately a welcome event if it can be accomplished safely and helps to end our national addiction to fossil fuels. Unconventional Oil SolvesUnconventional oil can replace crude oil. Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère, phD in geology at U of Oxford and exploration geologist for Texaco, Scientific American, “The End of Cheap Oil,” 3/98, p. 78 http://dieoff.org/page140.htm Last, economists like to point out that the world contains enormous caches of unconventional oil that can substitute for crude oil as soon as the price rises high enough to make them profitable. There is no question that the resources are ample: the Orinoco oil belt in Venezuela has been assessed to contain a staggering 1.2 trillion barrels of the sludge known as heavy oil. Tar sands and shale deposits in Canada and the former Soviet Union may contain the equivalent of more than 300 billion barrels of oil [see "Mining for Oil," by Richard L. George, on page 84]. Theoretically, these unconventional oil reserves could quench the world’s thirst for liquid fuels as conventional oil passes its prime. But the industry will be hard-pressed for the time and money needed to ramp up production of unconventional oil quickly enough Unconventional Oil SolvesUnconventional oil solves – heavy hydrocarbons will dominate the world’s future oil supply. Bob Williams, executive director, Oil & Gas Journal, “Heavy hydrocarbons playing key role in peak-oil debate, future energy supply” 7/28/03, Increasing production of unconventional oil could be crucial for meeting future global oil demand. In the near to middle term, almost all of that unconventional oil supply will come in the form of extra-heavy crude and bitumen. Just as some experts predict a near-term precipitous decline in conventional oil production, others point to burgeoning supplies of upgraded and synthetic crude derived from the world's vast tar sands, oil sands, bitumen resources. Some see those as the linchpin in bridging the gap between peak of global conventional oil production and more-exotic nonconventional energy sources. Those who favor the view that peak-oil is imminent generally dismiss the contribution to world oil supply to be made by heavy oil and bitumen as inadequate within their projected time-frames for global oil production peaking. But unlike many other nonconventional energy sources, heavy hydrocarbons are already making a robust, economically viable contribution to the world's oil supply today (Fig. 1). And the outlook is for that contribution to rise significantly in the decades to come. This outlook hinges on continuing improvements in reducing the cost of heavy hydrocarbon production through technology advances and efficiency improvements. In fact, the consensus is that production of heavy hydrocarbons has reached a point where it can be sustained through a range of oil prices once thought unsurvivable. That bodes well for the world's future volumes and diversity of oil supply. But it also presents challenges for producers and refiners that must exert ever-greater efforts to squeeze value from a increasingly poor-quality production stream. Even as producers step up efforts to enhance the value of heavy hydrocarbons upstream of the refinery, today's refiners must adapt -- in terms of logistics as well as process operations -- to an expanding slate of new synthetic crude oils (SCOs). Unconventional Oil SolvesLarge-scale unconventional oil developments will be underway by 2010. Peter R. Odell, Professor Emeritus of International Energy Studies @ Erasmus University, “Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate the 21st Century’s Global Energy Economy,” 2004  
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