Inflation in Germany accelerates on oil
Simone Meier, Frankfurt Staff Writer, Bloomberg News, 6/26/08, “Inflation in Three German States Accelerates On Oil” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=a6gKJN7OSfLI&refer=germany
Inflation in three German states accelerated in June, boosted by surging energy costs.
Consumer prices in North Rhine-Westphalia increased 3 percent from a year earlier after rising 2.8 percent in May, the state's statistics office in Dusseldorf said today. Economists expect German inflation to quicken to 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent when measured using a harmonized European Union method, the median of 27 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey shows.
Rising food and energy costs are fueling inflation in Europe's largest economy, sapping consumers' spending power. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet reiterated yesterday the bank may raise its key rate from a six-year high next month to curb price gains, even as economic growth slows.
``Inflation remains a problem and that's why we expect the ECB to raise its key rate once more after July,'' said Matthias Rubisch, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. ``In Germany, inflation will probably peak at 3.5 percent in August, as long as we don't see further gains in oil prices.''
Germany Link Ext
High Oil Prices Pressure Germany to Seek Oil in Iraq
Press TV, 7/13/08, ‘Germany seeking oil in Iraq’, http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=63520§ionid=351020
The economy ministry has declined to give further details about Michael Glos's visit but German weekly Bild am Sonntag reports that he is to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki Saturday to discuss issues on oil projects.
"No other country in the Middle East at the moment has such a large, untapped oil reserve," Glos was quoted as saying of Iraq in the magazine.
Germany opposed the 2003 US occupation of Iraq but has since attempted to actively take part in oil and reconstruction projects in the war-torn country.
European interest in Iraq, especially its massive energy potential, has grown. The European Union is negotiating an energy pact with Iraq, part of the bloc's efforts to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas.
Glos has expressed alarm in recent months about the impact of higher oil prices on Germany's economic growth.
The rising cost of energy have pushed German inflation well passed perceived levels
Joan Clark, Write-in Writer, John Reuters News, 7/18/08, “Berman producer price inflation hits 26-year high” http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Global_Markets/German_producer_price_inflation_hits_26-year_high/articleshow/3249124.cms
N: German producer price inflation in June accelerated by more than expected to its strongest level since March 1982, pushed by a strong rise in the cost of energy, official data showed on Friday.
Germany's Federal Statistics Office said prices increased 0.9 per cent month-on-month and rose 6.7 per cent year-on-year.
The mid-range forecast of 30 economists polled by media had predicted that prices would rise by 0.7 per cent month on month and annual inflation would accelerate to 6.5 per cent.
Germany Link Ext
European car slump in inflation as oil prices rises
AFP, Google News, 7/16/08, European car sales slump as inflation, oil prices rise, http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5g9B-RcF7KOcT5GsaF6yTrgl1Dz5g
New car sales in Europe slumped 7.9 percent in June over one year as mounting inflation and soaring fuel prices spooked buyers, the ACEA European automakers association said on Wednesday.
The drop, driven by freefalls in Ireland, Spain and Italy, came on the heels of a 7.8 percent plunge in May, adding to growing evidence of economic weakness in Europe.
"Rising inflation and soaring fuel prices were among the main factors influencing new registrations," ACEA said, announcing a 2.2-percent fall in new car sales in the first half of the year.
Oil prices hit new records over 140 dollars a barrel in June, lifting inflation in the 15 countries using the euro to an all-time high of 4.0 percent.
High Oil prices are the leading cause of inflation in modern Germany
RTT News, Anonymous Staff Writer, Economy and the Numbers, 7/18/08, “German June PPI Inflation Fastest Since March 1982” http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AllEconomicNews.aspx?Id=658388
Adding to existing inflationary pressures, German producer prices rose at its fastest pace since March 1982, driven by energy prices.
Friday, the Wiesbaden-based Federal Statistical Office reported that Germany's producer price index rose 6.7% year-on-year in June, marking a faster pace than the 6% recorded in May. The pipeline inflation rate also exceeded economists' consensus of 6.5% for June.
The statistical office announced that the June inflation is the highest year-on-year rate of increase since March 1982, when prices rose 7.2%.
Energy prices remained the main driver of pipeline inflation in June, surging 17.9% year-on-year and 2.6% on a monthly basis. Stripping off the energy component, producer prices rose just 3% over the year-ago period.
Germany Link Ext
Higher inflation in Germany, driven by rising energy prices, destroys investor confidence
RTT News, Anonymous Staff Writer, Economy and the Numbers, 7/18/08, “German June PPI Inflation Fastest Since March 1982” http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AllEconomicNews.aspx?Id=658388
Higher CPI inflation in June was driven by markedly higher energy and food prices. Food prices surged 7.6% in June from the prior year, while liquid fuel cost surged 61.9%.
A separate inflation measure, the wholesale price index or WPI rose 8.9% year-on-year in June, faster than the 8.1% increase recorded in May. According to the statistical office, the latest rise in wholesale prices is the highest since January 1982, when prices were up 9.5%.
Rising inflationary pressures, higher interest rates and fears of economic slowdown dragged Germany's investor confidence to a record low in July, a survey by the Centre for European Economic Research, or ZEW showed on July 15.
Germany Internal Links
Oil is essential to Germany’s military power and economy
Henry Ludmer, Former Central Intelligence Officer, The Ohio Journal of Science, 11/07, https://kb.osu.edu/dspace/bitstream/1811/3612/1/V47N06_259.pdf,
The subject "Oil in Germany" was and is of great importance to us because it was and still is a very essential part of Germany's war potential as well as of her peacetime economy.
World War I revealed the importance of oil to military operations. Lord Curzon made the long-remembered statement that the Allies floated to victory on a sea of oil. Marshal Foch added that in war a drop of gasoline is worth a drop of blood.
World War II clearly demonstrated the absolute necessity of oil in war. Not only did the want of it, the need of it, breed the force which attempted to obtain it, but it also played a leading part in the strategy of the victorious side. It is smarter to ground planes and put out of commission tanks by destroying their oil depots than to risk more men and machines by fighting them. Therefore all information concerning the natural and synthetic oil of Germany was classified information and hard to get. Some of the data presented in this study could not be checked or rechecked because of lack of information from the Russian sector of Germany.
International 1NC
Oil prices drop in record numbers remain vulnerable to shocks and consumption resumption
Gregory Meyer, Dow Jones Newswires, The Autralian Business, 7/19/08, Oil prices slide for a fourth straight session, http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24043762-20142,00.html
According to statistics released on Wednesday, US oil demand in recent weeks was down 2 per cent from the same time last year as gasoline and other fuel prices caused drivers to think twice about trips.
The US will send a senior envoy to Geneva this weekend to participate in nuclear talks with Iran's top negotiator, the closest contact between the two countries since 1979. After heated rhetoric and Iranian missile tests helped drive crude to records last week, a softer tone helped take prices lower.
"The importance of a US State Department representative at these talks shouldn't be underestimated since diplomatic progress could prove worthy of further evaporation of geopolitical risk premium related to Iran," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, an energy trading advisory firm.
Still, little cushion exists between supply and demand and world oil stockpiles are below average. In past months, pullbacks have served as chances for buyers to flood back in.
"Despite the recent rebound, crude oil inventories remain extremely low and fundamentals remain tight, underscoring that the oil system still remains vulnerable to supply and demand shocks," Goldman Sachs commodity analysts said in a note to clients. The bank sees crude selling for $US149 a barrel by year-end, as "the risk to prices remains skewed to the upside
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