Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
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- 2NC UNIQUENESS BOMB—OIL PRICES RISING
- High oil prices help stabilize Iraq
- High oil prices are stabilizing Iraq
- EXT—Oil Key to Iraq’s Economy
Iraq Oil DAC. Impact 1) Iraqi instability triggers civil wars throughout the Middle East. The Washington Post 8/20/06 “The Mideast Domino Theory” Lexis [ev] The consequences of an all-out civil war in Iraq could be dire. Considering the experiences of recent such conflicts, hundreds of thousands of people may die. Refugees and displaced people could number in the millions. And with Iraqi insurgents, militias and organised crime rings wreaking havoc on Iraq's oil infrastructure, a full-scale civil war could send global oil prices even higher. However, the greatest threat that the US would face from civil war in Iraq is from the spillover: the burdens, the instability, the copycat secession attempts and even the follow-on wars that could emerge in neighbouring countries. Welcome to the new ''new Middle East'', a region where civil wars could follow one after another, like so many Cold War dominoes. And, unlike communism, these dominoes may actually fall. Middle East conflict causes global nuclear war. Stephen Blank, prof @ Strategic Studies Institute @ US Army War College, World and I, 2/1/01 After seven or more years of America's best efforts, we now should see with whom we are dealing and the multiple fronts of the real Middle East war. In today's Middle East, every form of conflict along the spectrum from rock throwing to nuclear war can take place. Governments there have long since used weapons of mass destruction in other states' civil wars. Further opportunities to start these civil wars or use such weapons must be firmly deterred and discouraged. Rather than choose peace and democracy, Arafat and his allies have chosen war and hatred. Israel and the United States should act together to make sure that they never get to make another similar choice. 2NC UNIQUENESS BOMB—OIL PRICES RISINGOil prices rising globally—Thailand concurs Bangkok Post, July 17, 2008. “Siam Cement worries oil prices retard Thai economy” http://www.bangkokpost.com/170708_Business/17Jul2008_biz44.php NAREERAT WIRIYAPONG Siam Cement Group (SCG), Thailand's largest industrial conglomerate, has expressed concern over the Thai economy in the face of rising of oil prices. President and chief executive Kan Trakulhoon said the gross domestic product (GDP) growth projected earlier was likely to be revised down soon, because oil was now approaching US$150 a barrel. ''Seriously, I don't think Thailand's GDP growth can hit the target of 5-6%. The government needs to revise down the figure soon,'' he said yesterday. SCG also expects to revise its revenue projection to cope with oil prices at $150 a barrel as a worst-case scenario, against $130 in an earlier forecast. However, Mr Kan declined to give specific figures. ''Oil prices are rising so fast, we need to keep an eye on them to assess the situation,'' he said. He also voiced concern over the effect possible double-digit inflation could have on the overall economy. He did not think the Bank of Thailand's decision yesterday to lift its key interest rate by a quarter-point to 3.5% would have much of an impact on business operators. Oil prices high Wallstreet Journal, July10 2008. “Green Ink: High prices, rising demand” Crude futures held near $136 despite fresh Iranian missle tests, but relentless global demand growth could still pressure oil prices, Bloomberg reports. And growth there is: The International Energy Agency revised its global demand growth forecast upward Thursday, and pointed to the developing world, the WSJ reports (sub reqd.). Certainly not to American drivers: High gas prices pushed U.S. gasoline demand to a five-year low over the holiday weekend, the WSJ reports (sub reqd.). But get this—U.S. gas prices are relatively cheap compared with most of the rest of the world, the L.A. Times reports. Like in Britain, where higher gas prices alone are pushing drivers into smaller and cleaner cars, the Guardian reports. High oil prices help stabilize IraqOil prices are stabilizing Iraq The Washington Post 5/29/08 “Citing Its Resources, Iraq Appeals for Development Partners” Lexis [ev] With its oil and gas reserves in greater global demand than ever, Iraq has sufficient economic resources and "does not require extensive financial assistance," the Iraqi government said yesterday in a report to international backers. In an upbeat appeal for development partnerships and technical assistance, the report said Iraq offers "a unique opportunity to engage with one of the most resource rich countries in the world." It said oil revenue this year is expected to reach $70 billion and overseas cash reserves will increase to $34 billion. Econ and stability high—US investment proves. US Fed News 6/26/08 “Commerce Deputy Secretary Sullivan Brings American Companies To Northern Iraq” Lexis [ev] U.S. Commerce Deputy Secretary John J. Sullivan led the first official U.S. government business development mission of nine American companies to Northern Iraq, June 22-25. This mission is a strong indication that the Kurdistan Region of Iraq is open for business and that American firms are increasingly interested in trading with and investing in this region. "It's clear that Kurdistan is a place that is changing, growing and looking towards the future," Sullivan said. "I'm impressed by the people of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the remarkable signs of economic progress in Erbil. Security and stability are increasing. Now is the time for American firms to explore and expand their businesses in this part of the world. Far too few U.S. companies are taking advantage of the favorable opportunities for U.S. goods, services and investment in this region." Iraq is stable and economically healthy. Regulatory Intelligence Data 6/25/08 “Bush, Talabani Discuss Iraq Issues At White House Meeting Agency: Department Of Defense” Lexis [ev] Bush complimented Talabani for his efforts to improve security and to implement political reconciliation and needed legislative changes. "He and his fellow officials are reaching out to all aspects of society to help people realize the blessings of a free life," Bush said. The Iraqi economy has improved under Talabani's stewardship, Bush noted, while the mood of the Iraqi populace has become correspondingly more upbeat. "I'm proud of what you've done. And I thank you for the tough decisions, so that the people of a free Iraq can realize hopes and dreams," Bush said of Talabani's accomplishments. High oil prices are stabilizing IraqHigh oil prices allow Iraq to repay debts to IMF and boost economy http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/business/news/article_1381165.php/High_oil_prices_help_Iraq_repay_IMF_debt_early Washington - High oil prices allowed Iraq to repay its debt to the International Monetary Fund more than a year early as it prepares to negotiate a fresh loan, the IMF said Friday. Iraq paid back some 471 million dollars in postwar aid approved by the IMF in September 2004, 18 months after the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. Iraq's government had until 2009 to repay. Iraq made the final payment Wednesday, a week before Iraqi officials are slated to open talks with the IMF on the next aid injection. IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn praised Iraqi authorities for postwar economic reforms and said its early repayment reflected the government's strong international reserve position against a background of high oil prices.' Iraqi economy high—Basra stability. States News Service 5/18/08 “President Meets Iraqi Leaders In Egypt” Lexis [ev] In Basra, Iraqi security forces are bringing stability to the streets, officials said. The oil-rich city is crucial to the Iraqi economy and the Iraqi security forces operations of the last month have largely taken back the city from criminal elements. High oil prices are improving and stabilizing the Iraqi economy. BBC Worldwide Monitoring 5/12/08 “Iraqi president tells Japan of improved security, economy” Lexis [ev] The Iraqi president was quoted as saying security measures in Basra, Sadr City and Mosul have helped improve overall security conditions in Iraq. He also said the oil-rich country's economy is doing well due to high fuel prices, the officials said. Iraq economy is stabilizing—gov’t consensus. Thai Press Reports 6/27/08 Global News Wire—Europe Intelligence Wire “United States/Iraq Bush Meets With Talabani, Cites Progress In Iraq” Lexis [ev] The Iraqi president said the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is also focusing on getting important laws dealing with oil and elections through the legislature. He stressed fostering national unity remains a priority. "I can say we are proud to achieve good successes in Iraq. Our economy is growing and we have also big steps forward for national reconciliation," he added. EXT—Oil Key to Iraq’s EconomyHigh oil prices are key to Iraqi economic growth. Inside Energy 5/5/08 “Report of soaring Iraqi oil revenue rankles war critics on Capitol Hill” Lexis [ev] Initially, the Iraqi government estimated that oil revenue would be $35.5 billion, based on $57 per barrel at 1.7 million barrels per day. Now, because of a surge in oil prices, which earlier this month rose to a record $120/barrel, Iraqi oil revenue in the first quarter of 2008 alone was $18.2 billion, the report said, based on an average price per barrel of $91.66, the report said. "Iraq's economy is benefiting from higher oil prices," the report to Congress said. Exports in the first quarter averaged 1.97 million barrels a day, the report said, unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2007 but up from 1.48 million b/d compared to the first quarter of 2007, a 33 percent boost. Oil dominates Iraq’s economy even at decreased production levels. Adnan Pachachi Member of Iraq’s National Assembly 5/30/08 Congressional Quarterly, Speech at Woodrow Wilson Center, “Adnan Pachachi Delivers Remarks At The Woodrow Wilson Center” Lexis [ev] Well, you know, Iraq is one of the richest oil-producing countries in the world. I mean, its reserves are perhaps the highest in the world. But, of course, its production still under 2 million barrels a day. The oil industry has been neglected. As I said in my statement, it needs modernization, it needs a thorough overhaul, which of course needs a lot of money. But also we are -- we hope to have a new oil law, which would sort of organize the whole oil industry in such a way that will, hopefully, will lead to greater production and a better way of running the oil industry. It's very important for Iraq, as you know, because it's the mainstay of Iraq's economy, and we depend on oil more than anything else. And it's a great pity that it has been neglected.We should have -- we should be able to produce between 7 million to 8 million barrels a day, if really Iraq's potential is exploited. Oil is the only driver of Iraq’s economy USA Today 5/20/08 “In Iraq's oil fields, signs of hope finally are emerging; Improved security helps attract foreign investors” Lexis [ev] Under the deals, the oil companies would provide technology, training and equipment for six of Iraq's largest oil fields, according to Assem Jihad, a spokesman for Iraq's oil ministry. Their participation could help bolster Iraq's oil output by about a half-million barrels per day, the Iraqi government says, and lay the foundation for much bigger investments. "It's a foot in the door" for oil companies, says Samira Kawar, the Middle East editor for the Argus Media Group, an oil publication. For the big money to start rolling in, Kirsch says, Iraq's parliament likely will need to pass a long-awaited oil law that would protect oil companies' long-term investments and establish how future oil revenue will be distributed among Iraq's religious groups -- the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds. The law has been stuck in parliament for years as religious groups battled on the streets of Baghdad for control of the country. The issue is particularly contentious because oil funds nearly the entire Iraqi economy -- it accounts for about 90% of government revenue in a country where hardly anyone pays taxes. Here, too, there are hopeful signs. The recent nationwide decline in violence has improved relations among Sunnis and Shiites. That has helped al-Maliki broker several other major political compromises this spring, such as a law setting a date for provincial elections later this year. 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