Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
They say: US will solve conflict
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- Aff—Iraqi failure would be resolved by the US before going regional/global
- Aff—Hege solves Iraqi wars
- Aff—No impact: Terrorists wont attack outside Iraq
- AFF—OIL PRICES DON’T PROMOTE STABILITY
- AFF—OIL DOESN’T HELP IRAQ’S ECONOMY
- AFF—TURN: OIL BAD—HURTS ECONOMIC GROWTH
- AFF—TURN: OIL PRODUCTION BREEDS INSTABILITY
They say: US will solve conflictUS wont resolve conflict—it would either risk an all-out global war or costhundreds of thousands of American lives. Daniel L. Byman, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy Kenneth M. Pollack, Director of Research, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, May-June 2007. “Keeping the lid on Iraq’s civil wars” http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2007/05iraq_byman.aspx This is why some argue that the solution to civil war is partition-as Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) and John Owen IV, among others, have argued in these pages. The basic problem with pursuing any version of partition today in Iraq is that it is probably impossible to do so without either causing an all-out civil war or deploying the hundreds of thousands of American and other first-world troops whose absence has been the first-order problem preventing reconstruction from succeeding. Other than the Kurds, few Iraqis-whether political leaders, militia commanders or ordinary citizens-want their country divided. And many of those who are fleeing their homes are not merely peacefully resettling in a more ethnically homogeneous region, but are joining vicious sectarian militias like the Mahdi Army in hope of regaining their homes, or at least extracting revenge on whoever drove them out. Aff—Iraqi failure would be resolved by the US before going regional/globalDaniel L. Byman, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy Kenneth M. Pollack, Director of Research, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, May-June 2007. “Keeping the lid on Iraq’s civil wars” http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2007/05iraq_byman.aspx If Iraq spirals into an all-out civil war, the United States will have its work cut out attempting to prevent spillover from destabilizing the region and threatening key governments, particularly Saudi Arabia. Not being prepared to quickly fall back to a containment posture will lead to an ad hoc approach that will involve many avoidable mistakes and missed opportunities. Aff—Hege solves Iraqi warsEven if an all-out war takes place, US military leadership will prevent its spread. Daniel L. Byman, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy Kenneth M. Pollack, Director of Research, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, May-June 2007. “Keeping the lid on Iraq’s civil wars” http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2007/05iraq_byman.aspx Once an internal conflict has metastasized into all-out civil war, military leadership often proves to be a crucial variable in determining which faction prevails (sooner or later). However, it is extremely difficult to know a priori who the great military commanders are. We know about Moqtada Sadr and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim but very little about the field commanders of either the Mahdi Army or the Badr Organization, to name only the two best-known Iraqi militias. And in some cases we don't even know the relevant militias, let alone their leaders. Aff—No impact: Terrorists wont attack outside IraqEven if an all-out war takes place, US military leadership will prevent its spread. Daniel L. Byman, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy Kenneth M. Pollack, Director of Research, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, May-June 2007. “Keeping the lid on Iraq’s civil wars” http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2007/05iraq_byman.aspx No matter what happens in Iraq, an overriding U.S. national interest will be to limit the ability of terrorists to use Iraq as a haven for attacks outside the country, especially directed against the United States. The best way to do that will be to retain assets (airpower, special operations forces and a major intelligence and reconnaissance effort) in the vicinity to identify and strike major terrorist facilities like training camps, bomb factories and arms caches before they can pose a danger to other countries. Washington would need to continue to make intelligence collection in Iraq a high priority, and whenever such a facility was identified, whether Shi'a or Sunni, American forces would move in quickly to destroy it. When possible, the United States would work with various factions in Iraq that share our goals regarding the local terrorist presence. These same factions, however, would want U.S. money and support for their own political agendas, and many of them would be involved in brutal actions of their own. AFF—OIL PRICES DON’T PROMOTE STABILITYCan’t solve stability—outside terror growth. Deutsche Presse-Agentur 4/22/08 “ROUNDUP: Iraq calls for anti-terror action, embassies to re-open” Lexis [ev] Speaking at the meeting, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki urged neighbours to tighten control over their borders to stop "terrorists" from crossing into Iraq. "Those countries have to eliminate the sources of terrorism and its funding and stop those seeking to undermine the political process and taking neighbouring countries as a stage for moves against the Iraqi people," al-Maliki said. "Instability in Iraq affects the region. We will not allow terrorist groups to take safe haven in Iraq and to harm neighbouring countries," he added. The premier listed the security and political achievements of his government in an apparent bid to entice Arab countries to open embassies in Baghdad as some foreign states have done. "Many other foreign countries have diplomatic missions in Baghdad despite security considerations," al-Maliki said. AFF—OIL DOESN’T HELP IRAQ’S ECONOMYOil isn’t helping the Iraqi economy—infrastructure and low investment. The Times (London) 6/28/08 “Oil giants make a cautious return as exports rise” Lexis [ev] It was meant to be the rising tide that would lift the Iraqi economy out of years of war and sanctions, to finance reconstruction and guarantee cheap global supplies. Yet, five years on, big oil is only just starting to move cautiously into Iraq and, despite record prices, experts caution against another false dawn of optimism. Four oil giants - Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and BP - are to announce next week no-bid contracts to start servicing the creaking Iraqi oil infrastructure, crippled for decades by lack of investment and often targeted by insurgents. The deals came as the Oil Ministry announced that exports had hit a post-war high, due in large part to better security after the US troop "surge" of the past year and the turning of Sunni insurgents on erstwhile al- Qaeda allies. The news has caused many Iraqis - as well as US neocons - to hope that an oil boom could finally allow economic recovery and tackle the soaring unemployment that has fuelled militia violence and crime. However, the oil contracts are unusual for such big players in that they are only short-term service agreements, with the giants forgoing grander production-sharing deals in the hope of getting a foot in the door when the Government signs a hydrocarbon law that has been under heated debate in Parliament for years. "I think it's an important step in the right direction but I don't think it's significant," Wayne Kelley, a Texas oil engineer with RSK Energy consultants, said. "It's totally insignificant in the global oil market." While the move was "psychologically important" for Iraqis, he cautioned that getting oil back to prewar levels would take a long time and huge foreign investment, which is impossible until Parliament hammers out legislation to divide revenue among provinces that eye one another with deep suspicion. AFF—TURN: OIL BAD—HURTS ECONOMIC GROWTHReliance on oil harms economic growth. Gulf News 12/5/06 “Political Stability 'Key To Growth’” Lexis [ev] "Economic growth and prosperity are closely linked to political stability in the region," Egyptian Prime Minister Dr Ahmad Nadeef told the forum at the Madinat Jumeirah. "Palestine is at the core of regional challenges. This and other problems are not only hindering our growth and development but also wasting precious resources. Shaikha Lubna Al Qasimi, UAE Minister of Economy. highlighted the UAE's success in economic diversification saying a shift towards a non-oil economy could lead to balanced growth in the Gulf states. AFF—TURN: OIL PRODUCTION BREEDS INSTABILITYOil production is the root cause of instability. New York Times 4/16/08 “Iraq’s Insurgency Runs on Stolen Oil Profits” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/16/world/middleeast/16insurgent.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print [ev] The sea of oil under Iraq is supposed to rebuild the nation, then make it prosper. But at least one-third, and possibly much more, of the fuel from Iraq’s largest refinery here is diverted to the black market, according to American military officials. Tankers are hijacked, drivers are bribed, papers are forged and meters are manipulated — and some of the earnings go to insurgents who are still killing more than 100 Iraqis a week. “It’s the money pit of the insurgency,” said Capt. Joe Da Silva, who commands several platoons stationed at the refinery. Five years after the war in Iraq began, the insurgency remains a lethal force. The steady flow of cash is one reason, even as the American troop buildup and the recruitment of former insurgents to American-backed militias have helped push the number of attacks down to 2005 levels. In fact, money, far more than jihadist ideology, is a crucial motivation for a majority of Sunni insurgents, according to American officers in some Sunni provinces and other military officials in Iraq who have reviewed detainee surveys and other intelligence on the insurgency. Although many American military officials and politicians — and even the Iraqi public — use the term Al Qaeda as a synonym for the insurgency, some American and Iraqi experts say they believe that the number of committed religious ideologues remains small. They say that insurgent groups raise and spend money autonomously for the most part, with little centralized coordination or direction. 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