Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
Oil Pipelines Disadvantage 1NC Shell (3/3)
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- 2NC Russian Economy Dependent on Oil
- Countries Depend on Russia for Oil
- 2NC Russia is on the Brink
- 2NC impact Ext. Economic collapse bad
Oil Pipelines Disadvantage 1NC Shell (3/3)Continued… flows of refugees would pour into central and western Europe. Armed struggles in Russia could easily spill into its neighbors. Damage from the fighting, particularly attacks on nuclear plants, would poison the environment of much of Europe and Asia. Within Russia, the consequences would be even worse. Just as the sheer brutality of the last Russian civil war laid the basis for the privations of Soviet communism, a second civil war might produce another horrific regime. Most alarming is the real possibility that the violent disintegration of Russia could lead to loss of control over its nuclear arsenal. No nuclear state has ever fallen victim to civil war, but even without a clear precedent the grim consequences can be foreseen. Russia retains some 20,000 nuclear weapons and the raw material for tens of thousands more, in scores of sites scattered throughout the country. So far, the government has managed to prevent the loss of any weapons or much material. If war erupts, however, Moscow's already weak grip on nuclear sites will slacken, making weapons and supplies available to a wide range of anti-American groups and states. Such dispersal of nuclear weapons represents the greatest physical threat America now faces. And it is hard to think of anything that would increase this threat more than the chaos that would follow a Russian civil war. 2NC Russian Economy Dependent on OilOil is foundation of Russia economy. Maria Levitov, Moscow Times, 7-03-08, “Oil Tax Cuts Passes In Key 2nd Reading” < http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/1009/42/368704.htm> The State Duma approved tax cuts for oil producers to encourage exploration and development in a crucial second reading Wednesday. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin urged an easing of the oil industry's tax burden to reverse an output decline as crude prices trade near a record. The proposed changes should compensate oil companies for increasing costs and encourage the development of new fields, said Alexander Morozov, chief economist at HSBC Bank in Moscow. "The Russian economy still heavily depends on the oil and gas sector," he said. The level at which the oil extraction tax kicks in will increase to $15 per barrel from $9 now, according to the bill. The changes also include extending so-called tax holidays for new deposits in the far northern Timan-Pechora area, where LUKoil is working with ConocoPhillips, the Arctic peninsula of Yamal, which is being explored by Gazprom Neft, the Caspian and Azov seas and the offshore continental shelf. The tax changes create exemptions from the mineral extraction tax for oil fields that are no more than 0.05 percent depleted, according to the bill. On Russia's offshore continental shelf, where Rosneft works, and in Arctic areas, tax holidays would last 10 to 15 years or until total output reaches 35 million tons of oil. In the Caspian and Azov seas, the holidays would last seven to 12 years or until total output reaches 10 million tons. Onshore fields in the northern Timan-Pechora and Yamal peninsula regions would last seven to 12 years or until total output reaches 15 million tons. The government is set to lose 104.1 billion rubles ($4.45 billion) in 2009 and 112 billion rubles in 2010 because of the changes to the mineral extraction tax, according to estimates by the Duma's Budget and Taxes Committee. Revenue losses from the tax cuts will be "insignificant" for the budget because they were taken into account when the Cabinet approved government outlays for 2009-2011, Morozov said. In May, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina called the country's oil industry "the foundation of the Russian economy, the foundation for its competitiveness," adding that even a slight stagnation would be "alarming." 2NC Russian Economy Dependent on OilRussia depends on oil exports U.S. News & World Report, May 27, 2002 p22 (MHHARV6229) Relative economic stability rests largely on high current oil prices--Russia is the world's No. 2 oil exporter--an unsure footing at best. The president and his advisers have spoken of their concern about the country's reliance on oil and gas exports and about the lack of a coherent government plan for economic development. Russian economy is dependent on exports. (William H. Cooper, Specialist in International Trade and Finance Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, 3-30-08, “Russia’s Economic Performance and Policies andTheir Implications for the United States”) The Russian economy is highly dependent on the production and export of oil, gas, and other natural resources. Its success has largely been the result of record-breaking world energy prices, although prudent fiscal policies have also helped to promote economic stability. However, oil dependence could prove to be a double-edged sword. The Putin regime’s failure to complete important economic reforms and its penchant for re-asserting government control over key economic sectors also loom among the possible roadblocks down the road. How Putin’s successor, President Dmitriy Medvedev, will proceed is still a matter of speculation Countries Depend on Russia for OilCountries are highly dependent on Russia for natural gas. (Bernard A. Gelb, Specialist in Industry Economics Resources, Science, and Industry Division, 1-05-07, “Russian Natural Gas: Regional Dependence”) Russia is the dominant natural gas supplier to Europe and neighboring former Soviet states, as well as a major provider of oil. Some countries are entirely or largely dependent upon Russian energy supplies, particularly other Soviet successor states. As such, Russia has some ability to dictate natural gas prices. Russia cut off the gas supply to Ukraine and Moldova in January 2006 and threatened to cut off gas supplies to Belarus and Georgia during late 2006 price negotiations. These and other actions in the interim damaged Russia’s reputation as a reliable energy supplier, spurred importing countries to seek other sources, and provoked criticism that it is using energy as a political tool. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas, the dominant gas supplier to Europe and neighboring former Soviet states, and a major provider of oil. Some countries are entirely or largely dependent upon Russian natural gas. Of Russia’s total natural gas exports of 7.1 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in 2004, 6.7 tcf went to European countries, including destinations in Eastern Europe. (In comparison, the United States consumed an estimated 22 tcf in 2006.) Moreover, Russian natural gas is imported in large quantities by European countries and represents very high percentages of the total gas consumption of a number of them. (See Table 1 and Table 2). For example, Russia exported 1.3 tcf of natural gas to Germany, 0.9 tcf to Italy and to Ukraine, 0.7 tcf to Belarus, 0.5 tcf to Turkey, and 0.4 tcf of gas to France in 2004; and Russian gas represented 98% to 100% of the total natural gas consumed by Belarus, Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, and Slovakia. Thus, non-Russian Soviet successor states tend to be particularly dependent upon Russian gas. Ukraine’s 35% “dependence” shown in Table 2 is deceptively low, in that a substantial portion of its natural gas supply comes from Turkmenistan though Russian-controlled pipelines. 2NC Russia is on the BrinkRussia is on the brink—any change will push them over the edge Russia Today, 1-23-08, Russia Today “U.S. slashes rates in bid to stop recession” http://www.russiatoday.ru/business/news/19933 Experts fear that with the global economy teetering on the brink of recession, global demand for energy and other commodities - Russia’s major exports - will plummet. Analyst Igor Prokhaev from Troika Dialog says the falls are likely to continue. “Very sharp drops in developed markets will make fund managers reduce their risks in emerging markets. And Russia is the number one stock to sell because it’s very liquid,” Prokhaev said. While Roland Nash from the Renaissance Capital investment bank says oil holds the key to Russia's future economic security. “The likely impact on Russia is relatively limited because Russia is rather independent economically apart from one factor – the oil price. If the oil price falls, then that will have financial consequences for Russia,” he said. 2NC impact Ext. Economic collapse badEconomic decline causes a nuclear war Walter Russel Mead, NPQ’s Board of advisors, summer 1992(Walter Russell, NPQ’S Board of advisors, New perspectives quarterly, page 30 Hundreds of millions - billions - of people have pinned their hopes on the international market economy. They and their leaders have embraced market principles -- and drawn closer to the west – because they believe that our system can work for them. But what if it can't? What if the global economy stagnates - or even shrinks? In that case, we will face a new period of international conflict: South against North, rich against poor, Russia, China, India - These countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the 30s. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 9.54 Mb. Share with your friends:
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