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NC IMPACT INTERNAL LINK—RUSSIA IS KEY
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- 2NC IMPACT INTERNAL LINK—RUSSIA KEY
- 2NC TIME-FRAME: 2 YEARS GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
- AFF—IMPACT NON-UNIQUE: RUSSIAN OIL FAILING NOW
2NC IMPACT INTERNAL LINK—RUSSIA IS KEYRussia has major influence throughout world due to oil production. Marshall Goldman, Oxford University Press, 06-28-08, “The bear barrels back” In another slightly overwrought moment, Goldman writes, "With its natural gas and oil pipelines that tie Europe to Russia like an umbilical cord, Russia has unchecked powers and influence that in a real sense exceed the military power and influence it had in the Cold War." While East Europeans may beg to differ, the oft-made point that Russia has re-emerged on the international stage as a force to be reckoned with is well taken. Russia is a major global player. Thaindian News, 6-07-08, “MEdvedev stresses Russi’a leading role in global economy” Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stressed Russia’s leading role in the world economy Saturday and criticized US fiscal policy. “Russia has long been a global player and now we want to have a say in the rules of the game,” Medvedev said at an international economics forum in Saint Petersburg.The United States had not lived up to its responsibility as the leading financial power during the most recent crisis. International institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund had not performed well either, he noted. The forum, attended by the heads of the world’s largest energy companies, was overshadowed by the way Russian authorities have dealt with the British-Russian oil producer TNK-BP. The chief executive officer of TNK-BP, Robert Dudley, was earlier this week summoned as a witness in a Russian investigation into allegations of large-scale tax evasion, a company spokesman said Thursday. Dudley was to appear before the interior ministry for questioning Wednesday in a move seen to increase state pressure on the company amid rumours of a stand-off between Russian and British shareholders. Like his predecessor Vladimir Putin, Medvedev accused the leading industrial nations of “growing national egotism”, saying protectionist measures would not help tackle present-day challenges such as high food prices. Last year, Putin had come out in favour of more regional economic alliances to act as a counterweight to the World Trade Organization.
"Failure by the biggest financial firms in the world to adequately take risk into account, coupled with the aggressive financial policies of the biggest economy in the world, have led not only to corporate losses," Medvedev told Russia's main annual event for international investors in St Petersburg."Most people on the planet have become poorer." The Kremlin leader said investment by cash-rich Russian companies abroad, promotion of Moscow as a major financial centre and use of the ruble as a reserve currency were part of the answer. These could help solve problems created by what he said was a gap between the United States' leading global economic role and "its true capabilities." 2NC IMPACT INTERNAL LINK—RUSSIA KEYRussia has the sixth largest economy China Daily, 6-8-08, China Daily “Russia to become world's sixth largest economy in 2008” http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2008-06/08/content_6746000.htm Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said Russia will become the world's sixth largest economy by the end of 2008, Russian news agencies reported Sunday. "For the past eight years, Russia has been developing. By the end of this year, we will become the world's sixth largest economy," Shuvalov was quoted by the RIA Novosti news agency as saying at the 12th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Russia, which joined the G8 in 1998, has now "become a fully-fledged member of the world's largest economies, the deputy prime minister said. 2NC TIME-FRAME: 2 YEARS GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSEGlobal economic collapse in two years – Russia oil key. (Shigeru Sato and Yuji Okada, 6-25-08, “World Economy Would Collapse If Oil Hit $200, Deutsche Says,” The global economy would collapse if oil hit $200 a barrel, said the top energy analyst at Germany's largest bank. ``Two-hundred dollar oil would break the back of the global economy,'' Deutsche Bank AG's Chief Energy Economist Adam Sieminski said in an interview today in Tokyo. ``Next step after $200 would be global recession and bad news for everybody.'' Sieminski's comments come after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast oil may rise to between $150 and $200 within two years as supply growth, especially from producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, fails to keep pace with demand. Deutsche Bank is due to release its oil-price forecast on June 27. Oil doubled in the past year, touching a record $139.89 a barrel on June 16. Crude oil for August delivery was at $136.84 a barrel, down 16 cents, at 7:08 p.m. Tokyo time in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
``Growth last quarter fell on a year-on-year basis, and this has to do with the policies implemented over the prior year to raise taxes on oil industries,'' Sieminski said. ``This made it difficult for foreign capital to come in. ``If Russia could reverse some of these policies and get their own oil industry back on, this will help very much.''
On paper, Russia's basic economic indicators appear quite healthy: growth has averaged 7.5 per year for the last eight years, the country's massive debts have been replaced with a $150 billion stabilization fund, and its trade balance shows a healthy surplus of $72.5 billion last year. The Russian stock market's RTS index has grown by a staggering 1,922 percent between 2000 and 2007. But in truth, the Russian economy as a whole is an edifice with feet of clay. The bling and glitter of the capital obscures a harsh reality: the architecture of Russia's economy is no more solid than that of an inflatable children's castle at fairground, with energy and commodity prices the wind that keeps it inflated. Yes, the Russian economy has been growing fast. But little of that growth has spilled over into the real Russian economy. Rather, the boom has, in many ways, held back Russia's non-commodities economy from growing: rampant inflation, spiraling real-estate prices and higher labor costs, bureaucratic corruption, expensive credit and bad governance have combined to stifle the competitiveness of many Russian businesses. "Russia's macroeconomic performance has been stellar," says economic analyst Anders Aslund. "But Russia's oil surplus is so huge that it hides flaws in economic policy; the longer oil prices remain high, the worse economic policy will become. Booms breed complacency and corruption." Russian oil production has declined-need to move away from oil. (Halia Pavliva and Christian Schmollinger, staff writers, 7-3-08, “Medvedev Sees Oil Price at $150, Slower Global Growth,” Bloomberg.com) Russian oil production declined in June, bringing the nation closer to its first annual drop since 1998. Output fell to 9.77 million barrels a day (or 40 million metric tons a month), 1 percent less than June last year, according to data released by CDU TEK, the dispatch center for the Energy Ministry. Medvedev said Russia should diversify its economy away from oil Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 9.54 Mb. Share with your friends:
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