Oil 1 Peak Oil 21


TEXAS OIL DISADVANTAGE 1NC SHELL (2/3)



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TEXAS OIL DISADVANTAGE 1NC SHELL (2/3)


2) Alternative energy lowers oil prices – trades off
US Fed News, 5/6/08. “SKYROCKETING GAS PRICES HIGHLIGHT NEED TO USE AMERICAN RESOURCES” http://www.lexis.com/research/retrieve?_m=08d0fc06b2da1455085f3578e4de428d&docnum=6&_fmtstr=FULL&_startdoc=1&wchp=dGLbVtz-zSkAl&_md5=f4756b7493583c302d5375ed8a4b39a8
Despite promises of a "commonsense plan" to lower gas prices, the Democrats have failed to act on the number one issue affecting Kentuckians' pocketbooks since taking over the Majority in Congress. Our country must invest in alternative energy sources in order to reduce our energy dependence and lower fuel costs. It is time Congress works in a bipartisan manner to create a balanced energy solution that promotes conservation efforts and increases energy production on our own soil. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has rejected commonsense solutions that increase production in America and use our own resources.
The law of supply and demand is a staple of economics. It is commonsense that when we increase domestic supply, gas prices will fall. I have voted for and supported a number of proposals that would do just that. For example, the No More Excuses Energy Act (H.R. 3089) would encourage new refinery construction, allow for environmentally responsible exploration of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), and provide tax incentives to encourage the construction of new nuclear power plants.

C. IMPACT

1) TEXAS’ ECONOMIC COLLAPSE SPILLS OVER TO US ECONOMY— TEXAS’ ECONOMY MIRRORS U.S. ECONOMY

Texas Workforce Comission, September, 2002. “The texas economy: an age of global economic opportunity”, http://socrates.cdr.state.tx.us/iSocrates/Files/TexasEconomy2002.pdf


In years past, conversations about national economic trends or phenomena might have been viewed as of secondary concern to Texans. After all, an economy driven by Oil and Gas, related industrial sectors and other natural resources moved almost counter-cyclically to the national economy. Today, however, the Texas economy mirrors the U.S. economy much more closely and national and global trends have a greater bearing on the direction and economic health of the state. Like the U.S. economy, the Texas economy has many facets. When the question is asked, "where has the growth been?" the answer is not always obvious. Consider just one part, such as job growth, for example. Employment growth or decline can be discussed in terms of geographic region, such as the state of Texas or particular regions within it. It can also be viewed in terms of industries or specific occupations. Moreover, job growth can be viewed as both percentage change and as absolute change. The following sections will address the question of where growth, decline, and projected changes have occurred in Texas from a demographic, geographic, industry, occupational, and earnings perspective.


TEXAS OIL DISADVANTAGE (3/3)


2) ECONOMIC COLLAPSE CAUSES EXTINCTION

Bearden, 2000 (T.T, Director, Association of Distinguished American Scientists, http://www.seaspower.com/EnergyCrisis-Bearden.htm)

History bears out that desperate nations take desperate actions. Prior to the final economic collapse, the stress on nations will have increased the intensity and number of their conflicts, to the point where the arsenals of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) now possessed by some 25 nations, are almost certain to be released.  As an example, suppose a starving North Korea {[7]} launches nuclear weapons upon Japan and South Korea, including U.S. forces there, in a spasmodic suicidal response. Or suppose a desperate China — whose long-range nuclear missiles (some) can reach the United States — attacks Taiwan. In addition to immediate responses, the mutual treaties involved in such scenarios will quickly draw other nations into the conflict, escalating it significantly.  Strategic nuclear studies have shown for decades that, under such extreme stress conditions, once a few nukes are launched, adversaries and potential adversaries are then compelled to launch on perception of preparations by one's adversary.  The real legacy of the MAD concept is this side of the MAD coin that is almost never discussed. Without effective defense, the only chance a nation has to survive at all is to launch immediate full-bore pre-emptive strikes and try to take out its perceived foes as rapidly and massively as possible.  As the studies showed, rapid escalation to full WMD exchange occurs. Today, a great percent of the WMD arsenals that will be unleashed, are already on site within the United States itself {[8]}. The resulting great Armageddon will destroy civilization as we know it, and perhaps most of the biosphere, at least for many decades.








OIL KEY TO TEXAS’ ECONOMY



Oil revenues empirically boost Texas’ economy

Dan Zehr, Staff Writer at the American-Statesman, “High gas and oil prices fuel state funds

Revenue easily tops last year's” 7-4-08 http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/other/07/04/0704oilgas.html
As the oil and gas industry again is pumping out some serious money for Texas, the four state funds that benefit from oil and gas revenues all have jumped this fiscal year, which ends Aug. 31, posting growth of at least 30 percent and up to 84 percent over the prior year.

The petroleum sector "is a major contributing factor to the strength of the state's economy and particularly of the Houston economy," said Wells Fargo in its June-July economic assessment of Texas. The first four months of the year saw 8.1 percent employment growth in the natural resources sector, the bank's report said, propping up the 3 percent average growth statewide.

It's certainly not the 1970s heydays — general production trends in Texas continue to decline, state officials said — but the widely held consensus is that the bottom isn't going to drop out of these prices. There's less risk of getting stuck high and dry, and that means more holes in the ground.



"Threshold is the proper term," said Steve Hartmann, executive director of University Lands, which oversees the oil revenue reaped by the University of Texas System. "People think the bottom (price) is certainly higher than it was a year ago."

Brown agreed. Soaring international demand, particularly from large developing countries such as China, has helped boost oil prices and is likely to keep them in a higher range than in the past, he said. Meanwhile, the price of natural gas, which more and more Texas wells are pumping, probably will increase more as the U.S. economy picks up, he said.



UNIQUENESS


ALTHOUGH U.S. ECONOMY IS SLOWING OVERALL, TEXAS’ ECONOMY IS BOOSTING

MITCHELL SCHNURMAN, JULY 8, 2008, Schnurman: “In Texas, economy could be a lot worse” http://www.star-telegram.com/business/story/742135.html


Last week, the government reported that the U.S. economy lost 62,000 jobs in June, the sixth consecutive monthly decline. Separately, a Chicago consulting company said that layoff announcements rose 21 percent in the first half of 2008, with the list of shrinking employers including stellar names like Goldman Sachs.

Texas, meanwhile, keeps purring along. The economy is slowing, to be sure, and corporate layoffs are rising, but the state remains in positive territory by most measures. Even construction employment, down 5.2 percent nationwide in the past year, was up 3.6 percent here.

"We’re feeling an impact from the slowdown, but in economics, everything is relative," says Cheryl Abbot, regional economist with the Dallas office of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.



The state is holding up especially well compared with the country at large, and so far, North Texas is looking good, too. The Fort Worth-Arlington area added jobs in every category in the past 12 months, even an additional 200 in manufacturing — one sector that’s generally declined everywhere.

TEXAS’S ECONOMY BOOMING NOW—NEW JOBS PROVE.



Dallas Morning News, July 18, 2008, “Texas adds 47,000 jobs in June”, http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/071908dnbustexasjobs_hp.694c606e.html
Texas employers added a whopping 47,700 non-farm jobs in June, according to preliminary figures released Friday by the Texas Workforce Commission, as the state economy continued to defy the national downturn. The jump in June employment came after the state added just 5,200 jobs in May. The two-month average for job creation in May and June worked out to nearly 26,500. The state has added a monthly average of about 21,600 jobs during the first four months of the year. The U.S. economy has lost jobs every month this year. The Texas unemployment rate stood at 4.4 percent in June, down from 4.5 percent in May but up from 4.3 percent in June 2007. The U.S. jobless rate last month was 5.5 percent, up from 4.6 percent in June 2007. “We remain cautiously optimistic as Texas continues to add jobs despite slowing national trends,” said Tom Pauken, chairman of the Texas Workforce Commission. “It is encouraging to note job gains are broad-based across nearly all industries from construction to financial services to leisure and hospitality.” The June jobs figure is subject to revision in August. Texas employers added 10,700 jobs in professional and business services last month, according to the preliminary figures, along with 8,400 in trade, transportation and utilities. Construction gained 2,200 jobs. West Texas posted the lowest unemployment rates, as the region boomed thanks to high oil prices. The jobless rate was 3.1 percent in Midland, 3.6 percent in Amarillo and 3.7 percent in Odessa. Unemployment in the Dallas-Fort Worth area was 4.8 percent.



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