Peak oil spurs a natural transition to renewable energy – it’s happening now.
Mark Lynas, Staff Writer for the New Statesman, 6-16-08
(The oil crunch: What comes next?, The New Statesman, Vol. 137, Iss. 4901, p. Proquest) [Bozman]
But peak oil may not be quite the crisis the catastrophists predict. So far, the price hike has been an environmental boon: the rise in fossil fuel prices has made emitting carbon more expensive, helping to make up for the more or less total failure of world climate change policymaking. Higher oil prices have made renewables more competitive, spurring rapid developments in wind and solar power: installed capacities of each are now doubling every two years. In the US, SUV sales have slumped - General Motors may now drop the Hummer and focus production instead on its new plug-in electric hybrid model, the Chevrolet Volt. The aviation industry has seen its profits evaporate, with many analysts declaringthatthe era of cheap flights is over. All of these should be causes for celebration. In global warming terms, oil at $139 a barrel has been the best thing to happen for a decade.
High Prices Solve/No Impact
The inevitable decline in oil production will increase its price, spurring a gradual transition to renewables that will avoid war and doom.
Steven Schafersman, petroleum geologist, “Be Scared; Be Very Scared,”10/10/02, www.freeinquiry.com/skeptic/badgeology/energy/commentary.htm
First, a few facts. Oil is indeed a finite, limited resource that will eventually be depleted and decline. But will we ever run out of oil? The answer is NO! As oil becomes scarcer, its price will rise until only the very wealthy can afford it, so there will always be some available at some price, although this fact may not be reassuring to most of us. Right now--and historically--oil is plentiful, and the price is low (current equilibrium oil price is $23 a barrel). After world oil production reaches its peak and begins its inevitable decline, it will necessarily become scarcer and thus more expensive. The greater expense--not the unavailability--of oil in the long term is what gives the doomsayers cause for alarm, since an irrevocable price increase in this most valuable of commodities will certainly negatively affect all national economies based on oil as an energy resource, and that includes the United States. The doomsayers calculate that the peak and subsequent decline are upon us now, but the evidence for that is extremely thin as we shall see later. In fact, the peak will probably be reached several decades from now, closer to the middle of this century.
Furthermore, when the peak and decline are reached--as must inevitably occur sometime in the future--why shouldn't the decline be gradual and steady, thus allowing economies to slowly but steadily transition to alternative and renewable energy resources? The doomsayers predict, again with no or little evidence, that when the decline begins the price surge will be enormous and chaotic, thus leading to political upsets and territorial wars. The alarmists apparently believe that there are no buffering effects in national and global economies, such as, for example, when the supply of oil decreases with a constant demand, the price will rise proportionately, causing demand to decrease until supply and demand are once again in equilibrium. Of course, some will experience a decrease in their standard of living, but major depression and war? I don't think so.
Peak Rhetoric Bad
As oil doomsayers become more vocal, the peak theory becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Bob Williams, executive director, Oil & Gas Journal, “Peak Concern,” 10/13/03, LexisNexis
That kind of attention is gratifying. At the same time, it's a bit worrisome. It's clear that the issue of oil depletion is more than just a largely academic exercise this time around.
The peak-oil theorists, convinced that a day of reckoning is imminent, are becoming more heated in rhetoric and more apocalyptic in tone. This is getting picked up increasingly by the daily press -- especially since some depletionists seek to tie the US-led war in Iraq to oil depletion concerns. And some have added climate-change worries to the lurking fear of resource depletion as further reason to switch to alternative fuels.
Connect the dots. It may not matter whether the depletionists are right or wrong; the alarms themselves could grow to the point where predictions of an end to the Hydrocarbon Age become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
So line up your data, and let the games begin.
Peak Rhetoric Bad
Irrational warnings of an impending oil crisis cause prices to skyrocket.
Peter R. Odell, Professor Emeritus of International Energy Studies @ Erasmus University, “Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate the 21st Century’s Global Energy Economy,” 2004, p. 41-42
 
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