Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
AT: China/India Demand Causes Peak
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AT: China/India Demand Causes PeakFuture demand from China and India will be offset by lower U.S. demand. ISMAEL HOSSEIN-ZADEH, professor of economics at Drake University, CounterPunch, “Are There Really Oil Wars?” 7/9/08, http://www.counterpunch.org/zadeh07092008.html Fifth, proponents of Peak Oil tend to exaggerate the impact of the increased oil demand coming from China and India on both the amount and the price of oil in global markets. The alleged disparity between supply and demand is said to be due to the rapidly growing demand coming from China and India. But that rapid growth in demand is largely offset by a number of counterbalancing factors. These include slower growth in U.S. demand due to its slower economic growth, efficient energy utilization in industrially advanced countries, and increases in oil production by OPEC, Russia, and other oil producing countries. No Impact – Smooth TransitionNo impact to the oil peak – tech and oil reserves ensure the transition to new forms of energy will be smooth. Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Peak Oil Forum, “Peak Oil: A Catastrophist Cult and Complex Realities,” Jan-Feb 06, http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~vsmil/pdf_pubs/WorldWatch.pdf When seen from broader resource, technical, and historical perspectives, the recent obsession with an imminent peak of oil extraction has all the marks of a catastrophist apocalyptic cult. Realities are different. Conventional oil resources may be substantially larger than the lowest estimates of peak-oil catastrophists. Even so, it is highly probable that their annual global extraction will peak within the next two decades and it is inevitable that conventional oil will become relatively a less important part of the world’s primary energy supply. But this spells no imminent end of the oil era as very large volumes of the fuel, both from traditional and non-conventional sources, will remain on the world market during the first half of the 21st century. As oil becomes dearer we will use it more selectively and more efficiently, and we will intensify a shift that has already begun: a new global energy transition, from oil to natural gas and to both renewable and nuclear alternatives. As result, there is nothing inevitable about any particular date of peak of global oil extraction. More fundamentally, there is no reason to see an eventual decline of oil’s share in the global energy supply as a marker of civilizational demise. Energy transitions—from biomass to coal,from coal to oil, from oil to natural gas,from direct use of fuels to electricity—have stimulated technical advances and driven our inventiveness. Inevitably,they bring enormous challenges for both producers and consumers, necessitate the scrapping or reorganization of extensive infrastructures, are costly and protracted, and cause major socioeconomic dislocations. But they have created more productive and richer economies, and modern societies will not collapse just because we face yet another of these grand transformations. Unless we believe, preposterously, that human inventiveness and adaptability will cease the year the world reaches the peak annual output of conventional crude oil, we should see that milestone (whenever it comes) as a challenging opportunity rather than as a reason for cult-like worries and paralyzing concerns. No Impact – Smooth TransitionAn abundance of oil, coal, and natural gas will facilitate a smooth transition towards alternative energy throughout the 21st century. Peter R. Odell, Professor Emeritus of International Energy Studies @ Erasmus University, “Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate the 21st Century’s Global Energy Economy,” 2004, p. 14-16 
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