Oil 1 Peak Oil 21

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1NC Frontline

The oil price spikes of the 1970s have often been blamed for the recessions that followed.15 However, this view has been challenged by Ben Bernanke and others who argue that restrictive monetary played a larger role in those downturns.16 Significantly, the oil price increases of 2005-2006 did not produce a recession. Possible reasons include sound management of monetary policy and a lower ratio of oil use to GDP than during prior price spikes.

Nevertheless, the climb in oil prices during the past few years imposed considerable costs. In 2006, U.S. payments abroad for oil were more than $250 billion.17 Between summer 2003 and summer 2006, world oil prices rose from roughly $25 per barrel to more than $78 per barrel. For several African countries, increased oil costs during this period substantially exceeded amounts saved through debt relief. For the United States, each $10/barrel increase results in roughly $50 billion of additional foreign payments annually (approximately 0.4% of GDP).18
3. And, a weakened economy inevitable destroys military readiness

Dr. John Scire-2006

Dr. John Scire is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at UNR, where he has taught an energy policy course for the last 10 years. Ricardo Lopez a UNR journalism student who acts as a research assistant for Dr. Scire.

DoD's dependency on oil as a primary motor fuel makes military operations much more costly than if it had alternative fuels. Oil dependency also requires that we dedicate military forces to the Persian Gulf area, reducing our ability to use those forces in other places. Furthermore, the U.S. military presence in the Middle East raises the potential for military conflicts with other importing nations as world demand increases and supplies decrease. Our oil dependency also strains military alliances, such as NATO, as members compete for oil. Witness the French and Germans working with the Iranians to increase oil production and Pakistan building a port to import Iranian natural gas while we are trying to stop the Iranian nuclear program. Their need for oil and gas trumps our need to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. The last and perhaps most serious impact on national security of our oil dependency is that the chronic weakening of the U.S. economic base will inevitably weaken our military; we cannot sustain a strong military with a weak economy.
4. With no military readiness, the U.S. is vulnerable to any signs of a war

1 NC Frontline

T. E. Bearden, LTC, U.S. Army (Retired), CEO, CTEC Inc., Director, Association of Distinguished American Scientists (ADAS), Fellow Emeritus, Alpha Foundation's Institute for Advanced Study (AIAS)June 24, 2000  (http://www.seaspower.com/EnergyCrisis-Bearden.htm) 

As the collapse of the Western economies nears, one may expect catastrophic stress on the 160 developing nations as the developed nations are forced to dramatically curtail orders.  International Strategic Threat Aspects  History bears out that desperate nations take desperate actions. Prior to the final economic collapse, the stress on nations will have increased the intensity and number of their conflicts, to the point where the arsenals of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) now possessed by some 25 nations, are almost certain to be released.  As an example, suppose a starving North Korea {[7]} launches nuclear weapons upon Japan and South Korea, including U.S. forces there, in a spasmodic suicidal response. Or suppose a desperate China — whose long-range nuclear missiles (some) can reach the United States — attacks Taiwan. In addition to immediate responses, the mutual treaties involved in such scenarios will quickly draw other nations into the conflict, escalating it significantly.  Strategic nuclear studies have shown for decades that, under such extreme stress conditions, once a few nukes are launched, adversaries and potential adversaries are then compelled to launch on perception of preparations by one's adversary.  The real legacy of the MAD concept is this side of the MAD coin that is almost never discussed. Without effective defense, the only chance a nation has to survive at all is to launch immediate full-bore pre-emptive strikes and try to take out its perceived foes as rapidly and massively as possible.  As the studies showed, rapid escalation to full WMD exchange occurs. Today, a great percent of the WMD arsenals that will be unleashed, are already on site within the United States itself {[8]}. The resulting great Armageddon will destroy civilization as we know it, and perhaps most of the biosphere, at least for many decades. 

Uniqueness-Oil Prices High Now

Oil dependence currently increasing

ASE-3.28.03 http://www.csrwire.com/PressRelease.php?id=1702

Alliance to Save Energy is a coalition of prominent business, government, environmental, and consumer leaders who promote the efficient use of energy worldwide to benefit consumers, the environment, economy, and national security

WASHINGTON, DC, —With world oil markets increasingly in turmoil, U.S. oil imports steadily increasing, and oil and gas prices on the rise, the Alliance to Save Energy has launched the Drive for America campaign demanding that the Big Three automakers increase fuel economy as a matter of national security. In the web campaign’s first 24 hours, more than 5,000 Americans on the home front signed on to the campaign as a way of making their own contribution to national security and sending a message to U.S. automakers. “With cars and light trucks accounting for more than 40 percent of U.S. oil consumption, the Big Three automakers are uniquely positioned to help break our nation’s deadly oil dependence,” said Alliance President David M. Nemtzow. “For too long, our nation has been dangerously dependent on foreign oil, leaving our economy and our national security hostage to the whims of other, often hostile, nations. The Drive for America campaign allows us to declare that we will no longer tolerate being a nation of oil junkies.”

OIL IMPORTS AT RECORD HIGH

Platts Oilgram News March 13, 2008 Thursday
The US trade deficit in January widened by $300 million to $58.2 billion as oil imports and costs climbed, according to data released March 11 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

US oil imports jumped to a record $84.09/barrel in January from $82.76/b in December. Average oil imports increased 689,000 b/d to 10.394 million b/d in January. Total energy-related petroleum product imports rose 34.165 million barrels month over month.

The deficit with OPEC widened by $2.9 billion to $15.5 billion. Crude oil imports from OPEC countries climbed to 190.213 million barrels in January from 175.924 million barrels in December. While crude imports from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela were steady, imports from Angola, Ecuador and Iraq accounted for a good portion of the increase. Imports from Iraq in particular were up 5.386 million barrels to 16.266 million barrels.

Dr. John Scire-2006

Dr. John Scire is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at UNR, where he has taught an energy policy course for the last 10 years. Ricardo Lopez a UNR journalism student who acts as a research assistant for Dr. Scire.
In the last 32 years, oil imports have increased from 35 percent of total U.S. consumption in 1974, to 66 percent in 2006. During the same period, U.S. oil consumption has grown by 30 percent. This wouldn't be a national security issue if all the oil came from safe places like Canada and Mexico, but it doesn't. Oil from unstable countries and/or countries that are a threat to the U.S. is known as Insecure Oil. Insecure Oil currently comes from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria and several other smaller Middle Eastern exporters. According to the U.S. Energy Department, we import 1.4 million of barrels of oil per day from Saudi Arabia along with 800,000 barrels from other Persian Gulf states, 1.4 million barrels from Venezuela and 1.1 million barrels from Nigeria. At $100 per barrel, the U.S. will be sending $51 billion a year to the Saudis alone in 2008. Oil dependency from unstable or hostile countries has huge economic, military, national security, and political implications for our country.