Oil 1 Peak Oil 21
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Impact-TerrorismOil dependence increases terrorism and anti-American sentiment Martin Feldstein Oct. 2001 Professor of Economics, Harvard University, and President of the National Bureau of Economic Research (http://www.nber.org/feldstein/oil.html) The terrorist attacks on September 11th and the subsequent demonstrations of anti-Americanism throughout the Middle East increase the saliency of America's dependence on oil imports from the Gulf states. The United States now imports more than half of all the oil that we consume. One fourth of those imports come from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq. If there is no change in policy, that dependence will grow in the future since those three countries plus the United Arab Emirates have more than half of the world's reserves of oil while the United States has only 2 percent of total reserves. (2) America's dependence on imported oil is a serious cause of economic vulnerability and a major constraint on our foreign defense policy. The political leaders in the Middle East know that our dependence on their oil gives them leverage over our policies. The possibility of increasing that leverage emboldened Saddam Hussein to invade Kuwait in order to extend the share of mid-East oil controlled by Iraq. And while the governments of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are basically friendly to the United States, recent events have made it clear how potentially vulnerable those governments are to radical elements within their own countries. All of this is a cloud over the continuation of oil supply from the Middle East. Oil dependence breeds terrorism NRDC March 06 http://www.nrdc.org/legislation/factsheets/leg_06031301A.pdf For example:
current account deficit, which soared to $792 billion in 2005.3 > Terrorism, natural disasters, and numerous other plausible events could interrupt global supplies and send prices sharply higher, threatening the stability of the global economy. History provides ample evidence of the potential economic consequences of oil dependence. At best, short term measures offer limited protection against the effects of oil supply disruptions, but there are Long-term policy options available that would significantly reduce our exposure to the tremendous costs and potentially devastating effects of oil dependence. It is these long-term reforms that must be implemented to improve U.S. economic and national security.
Compounding this problem, the huge money flows into the region from oil purchases help finance terrorist networks. Saudi money provides critical support for madrassas with virulent anti-American views. Still worse, diplomatic efforts to enlist Saudi government help in choking off such funding, or even to investigate terrorist attacks, are hampered by the priority we attach to preserving Saudi cooperation in managing world oil markets. This points to a broader problem -- oil dependence reduces the leverage of the world community in responding to threats from oil-exporting nations. Today, the most prominent threat comes from Iran, whose nuclear ambitions could further destabilize the Persian Gulf and put terrifying new weapons into the hands of terrorists. Yet efforts to respond to this threat with multilateral sanctions have foundered on fears that Iran would retaliate by withholding oil from world markets. Experts predict this would drive prices above $100 per barrel – a risk many governments are unwilling to accept. In short, three decades after the first oil shocks -- and a quarter-century after the humiliating capture of U.S. diplomats in Tehran – we remain hostage to our continuing dependence on oil. Other oil-exporting nations pose problems as well. President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela – the world’s fifth largest exporter -- fans anti-American sentiments throughout Latin America. Oil revenues not only help maintain his grip on power, they allow him to finance policies that put U.S. assets at risk in countries such as Bolivia and Argentina.6 Russia recently cutoff oil flows to five European nations in a dispute with Belarus over natural gas prices and transit fees. Oil dependency increase terrorism and anti-American sentiment Dr. John Scire-2006 Dr. John Scire is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at UNR, where he has taught an energy policy course for the last 10 years. Ricardo Lopez a UNR journalism student who acts as a research assistant for Dr. Scire. Oil dependency forces the U.S. to support oil regimes that oppress their citizens. As a result, other states and the citizens of oppressive oil regimes see the U.S. as their real enemy. It isn't surprising that Osama bin Laden's first Fatwah was against the U.S. for stationing troops in Saudi Arabia to protect the oppressive Saudi Royal Family. U.S. oil dependency also strengthens worldwide Islamist terror campaigns as funding for these groups comes primarily from Middle Eastern Islamic charities, located primarily in Saudi Arabia. Because of oil dependency, we both motivate the terrorists and provide the money to fund their attacks on us. American oil dependency also strengthens other states opposed to American foreign policy interests, such as Venezuela and Russia. Foreign policy options are further reduced when other oil importing countries, such as China, block our UN Security Council resolutions targeted at their sources of oil. This has already occurred in regard to Sudan and Myanmar. Impact-ProlifOIL DEPENDENCE CAUSES MIDDLE EAST PROLIFERATION AND WAR Joseph Romm and Charles Curtis, Department of Energy, ATLANTIC MONTHLY, April 1996, http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/96apr/oil/oil.htm. (DRGOC/D443) Second, the Persian Gulf nations' oil revenues are likely to almost triple, from $ 90 billion a year today to $ 250 billion a year in 2010 - a huge geopolitical power shift of great concern, especially since some analysts predict increasing internal and regional pressure on Saudi Arabia to alter its pro-Western stance. This represents a $ 1.5 trillion increase in wealth for Persian Gulf producers over the next decade and a half. That money could buy a tremendous amount of weaponry, influence and mischief in a chronically unstable region. And the breakup of the Soviet Union, coupled with Russia's difficulty in earning hard currency, means that for the next decade and beyond, pressure will build to make Russia's most advanced military hardware and technical expertise available to well-heeled buyers. Impact-EconUS dependence on Oil imports hurts foreign policies and economic stability Martin Feldstein (Professor of Economics) fall of 2001 “Oil Dependence and National Security: A Market-based Sysytem for Reducing U.S. Vulnerability” Professor of Economics, Harvard University, and President of the National Bureau of Economic Research. This article was prepared for a special issue of the National Interest to be published in the fall of 2001 http://www.nber.org/feldstein/oil.html The terrorist attacks on September 11th and the subsequent demonstrations of anti-Americanism throughout the Middle East increase the saliency of America's dependence on oil imports from the Gulf states. The United States now imports more than half of all the oil that we consume. One fourth of those imports come from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq. If there is no change in policy, that dependence will grow in the future since those three countries plus the United Arab Emirates have more than half of the world's reserves of oil while the United States has only 2 percent of total reserves. (2) America's dependence on imported oil is a serious cause of economic vulnerability and a major constraint on our foreign defense policy. The political leaders in the Middle East know that our dependence on their oil gives them leverage over our policies. The possibility of increasing that leverage emboldened Saddam Hussein to invade Kuwait in order to extend the share of mid-East oil controlled by Iraq. And while the governments of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are basically friendly to the United States, recent events have made it clear how potentially vulnerable those governments are to radical elements within their own countries. All of this is a cloud over the continuation of oil supply from the Middle East. Political leaders and expert commissions have been calling for a reduction in our dependence on oil imports at least since 1974 when President Nixon established Project Independence with the goal of achieving energy independence by 1980. In fact, however, our dependence on imported oil was still 42 percent of our consumption in 1980 and has risen to 52 percent in 2000. (3) The high demand of oil imports have empirically, lead to a recession MIA Monthly Energy Review Jul. ‘07 http://www.fueleconomy.gov/FEG/oildep.shtml Our dependence upon oil, especially foreign oil, affects our economy and our national energy security. Today, over half of the oil we use is imported (60%) and our dependence will increase as we use up domestic resources. Most of the world's oil reserves are concentrated in the Middle East, and about two-thirds are controlled by OPEC members. Oil price shocks and price manipulation by OPEC have cost our economy dearly—about $7 trillion from 1979 to 2000 cost the U.S. economy—and each major price shock was followed by a recession. With growing U.S. imports and increasing world dependence on OPEC oil, future price shocks are possible and would be costly to the U.S. economy. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 9.54 Mb. 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