Overfishing aff inherency

Econ Decline Scenario

Fishing key to Econ

Sustaining fisheries is vitally important to the US economy, despite recent reforms more needs to be done to prevent over fishing

US fishing industry is key to the economy- it contributes 1.5 million jobs and one half a trillion dollars every year, and the economy is becoming more dependent on fishing.

In this report, the U.S. seafood industry includes the commercial harvest sector, seafood processors and dealers, seafood wholesalers and distributors, importers, and seafood retailers. In 2012, this industry supported approximately 1.3 million full- and part-time jobs and generated $141 billion in sales impacts, $39 billion in income impacts, and $59 billion in value added impacts. Seafood retailers, which generated the largest job and value added impacts, contributed 610,000 jobs, $32 billion in sales impacts, $12.9 billion in income, and $17.6 billion in value added impacts to the national economy in 2012. The seafood import sector, which generated the largest sales impacts, contributed 207,000 jobs, $57 billion in sales impacts, over $9 billion in income, and $17.3 billion in value added impacts. Wholesalers and distributors constituted the smallest of the seafood industry sectors and contributed 57,000 jobs, almost $8 billion in sales, $2.6 billion in income, and $3.5 billion in value added impacts to the national economy. Employment impacts from the U.S. seafood industry were 3% higher in 2012 than in 2011. Similarly, industry-wide economic impacts in terms of income (up 5.9%), sales (up 8.7%), and value added (up 8.7%) were also higher. Year-over-year increases in economic impacts were concentrated in three sectors: importers (employment up 18%), processors and dealers (employment up 11%) and wholesalers and distributors (employment up 5.8%). Economic impacts in the commercial harvesting and retail sectors were actually somewhat lower in 2012 relative to 2011. For example, employment impacts were 6% lower in the commercial harvesting sector and 1.3% lower in the retail sector.

Overfishing has severe consequences for the global economy--$50 billion per year

U. Thara Srinivasan, William W. L. Cheung , Reg Watson, U. Rashid Surnaila 10 (“Food security implications of global marine catch losses due to overfishing”, Journal of Bioeconomics, October 2010, Volume 12, Issue 3, pp 183-200, EBSCO)

Overfishing, the taking of more biomass from a marine population than the biomass can replace, plagues many of the world’s fisheries (Grainger and Garcia 1996: Pauly et al. 1998; Froese and Kesner-Reyes 2002: MA 2005). Indeed, it has been recognized as the foremost force in the global degradation of coastal ecosystems (Jackson et al. 2001; MA 2005). In a recent study, the World Bank and the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization estimated that excess fishing may cost the world roughly $50 billion a year in net economic losses—value the world could potentially recoup by scaling back fishing efforts, and allowing rebuilding of depleted marine resources so that sustainably higher catches can be obtained in the future at higher population levels (World Bank & FAO 2009). In the case of the U.S., Sumaila and Suatoni (2006) showed that the net present value (NPV) of 17 stocks thai have implemented rebuilding plans is estimated to be three times higher than the NPV of the same stocks if they are not rebuilt, but continue to be fished at current levels. By failing to safeguard the world’s ocean ecosystems, humankind is losing not only revenue from fisheries but also long-relied upon sources of nourishment and employment. Through over- exploitation of targeted species and the disruption of food webs (Pauly et al. 1998: Jackson et al. 2001: Pauly et al. 2002), we are losing biodiversity and injuring marine ecosystem services (MA 2005: Worm et al. 2006). In the twentieth century, fishing has driven several marine species to local extinction (Dulvy CL al. 2(X)3: MA 2005), and many marine fish on the LUCN’s Red List of Threatened Species (http://www. iucnredlisi.orgl) are jeopardized by overfishing (Dulvy et al. 2003), yet certain marine species well known to be endangered by commerce are not yet covered under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species in wild Fauna and Flora.

The fish industry supports 1.5 million jobs and billions in sales and incomes, supporting a significant amount of the economy.

US Department of Commerce 2010 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, “Fisheries Economics of the United States 2008 - Economics and Sociocultural Status and Trends Series”, April 2010, Date Accessed: 063014)

In this report, the U.S. commercial seafood industry includes the commercial harvest sector, seafood processors and dealers, seafood wholesalers and distributors, and seafood retailers. In 2008, this industry supported approximately 1.5 million full- and part-time jobs and generated $104 billion in sales impacts and $45 billion in income impacts. Seafood retailers contributed most to these totals relative to the other commercial seafood sectors. This sector employed approximately 1.1 million workers (75% of total employees) in 2008 and generated $60 billion in sales (58% of total sales impacts) and $28 billion in income (62% of total income impacts). Seafood wholesalers and distributors (155,000 employees), commercial harvesters (115,000 employees), and seafood processors and dealers (105,000 employees) followed in terms of jobs supported across the U.S. Relative to 2007, sales and income impacts from the commercial seafood industry increased in 2008: 5.4%, 5.5%, respectively.15 Increases in sales and income impacts were experienced across all of the sectors. The commercial harvester sector experienced the smallest increase, with a 3.8% sales impacts and a 4.3% increase in income. The largest increase was seen in the seafood wholesalers and distributors which experienced a 6.6% increase in sales and income impacts. Total employment impacts increased 2.4%, and increases in employment were seen across all sectors. These increases ranged from 1.2% in the commercial harvester sector to 3.4% in the seafood wholesalers and distributor sector.

Econ Collapse

Costal economies depend on fisheries, overfishing will collapse costal economies

Ocean Conservancy 2014 (Ocean Conservancy, organization aimed at conserving oceanic ecosystems, “America’s ocean and coasts provide jobs for 2.3 million people in thousands of communities across the country”, 2014, http://www.oceanconservancy.org/healthy-ocean/thriving-economy/)

The ocean-dependent economy, including six industries dominated by tourism, mineral extraction and marine transportation, generated more than $222 billion in 2009. And every year, commercial and recreational fisheries nationwide employ 1.9 million workers. ¶ Sustaining this economic success for years to come depends on:¶ maintaining and securing sustainable fisheries,¶ Protecting fragile habitats to help restore fisheries and boost the local economy,¶ Fighting trash and debris that threatens ocean health and drains our coastal economies,¶ using strong science to regulate genetically engineered fish and fish farming, and¶ creating smart, innovative planning for the ocean¶ Ocean Conservancy supports the millions who earn their living from the ocean every day. We are working with companies, commercial and recreational fishermen, and local, state and federal governments to ensure a healthy ocean and a thriving economy.¶ Historically, overfishing decimated iconic fish populations like cod, red snapper, bluefin tuna and species of Pacific rockfish.¶ Today, Ocean Conservancy is working with governments, fishermen and others to prevent overfishing and bring these populations back to sustainable levels—and it’s working. Red snapper are now recovering in the Gulf of Mexico, showing that success can be accomplished.¶ According to a recent National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) fisheries report, we are turning the corner on overfishing and the catch by American fishermen has reached a 17-year high.¶ Altering the current science-based safeguards could jeopardize fish populations that are on their way back to healthy numbers. This would result in fewer fishing opportunities, fewer seafood choices and weakened coastal communities.

The US’s economy is dependent upon coastal economies, they account for ¾ of the economy

Colgan 2004 (Colgan, Charles, Professor of public policy and management at University of Southern Maine, “The Changing Ocean and Costal Economy of the United States: A Briefing Paper for Governors” March 25, 2004, http://www.seagrant.umaine.edu/files/pdf-global/06MWRcd/06MWR08.pdf)

Three quarters of the American economy is generated coastal states. Nearly half comes from the 25% of the land that is the coastal watershed counties, and more than 11% of the economy comes from the 4% of the land in the near shore area. Regardless of the definition of coast being used, the coastal economy has grown faster than the national economy. ¶ The ocean economy- the economic activity directly associated with using ocean resources - is considerably smaller than the coastal economy, but important nonetheless. In 2000, the ocean economy is estimated to have employed over 2.2 million people and contributed more than $117 billion to the national economy. The ocean economy is generally proportionate to the size of each state’s economy, but it is more important in some states than others.

Economic decline causes nuclear war

Harris and Burrows 9 (Mathew, PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer is a member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf

Increased Potential for Global Conflict)

Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample Revisiting the Future opportunity for unintended consequences, there is a growing sense of insecurity. Even so, history may be more instructive than ever. While we continue to believe that the Great Depression is not likely to be repeated, the lessons to be drawn from that period include the harmful effects on fledgling democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the same period). There is no reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty-first as much as in the twentieth century. For that reason, the ways in which the potential for greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if change would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. Terrorism’s appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach. Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups_inheriting organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks_and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self-radicalized, particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any economically-induced drawdown of U.S. military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East. Although Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable, worries about a nuclear-armed Iran could lead states in the region to develop new security arrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons, and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel, short warning and missile flight times, and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption rather than defense, potentially leading to escalating crises

Overfishing collapses economies – people lose their jobs and businesses are destroyed Canada proves

Gien 00, Gien, Lan. BSc., MEd., PhD., Professor at Memorial University’s School of Nursing. “Land and Sea Connection: The East Coast Fishery Closure, Unemployment and Health.” Canadian Journal of Public Health 91.2 (2000): 121. Web. 2 July 2014. CS

The most well-known example of the detrimental effects of overfishing is the collapse of the Atlantic northwest cod fishery. For 500 years, the economy of Canada’s eastern coast had depended on the northern cod fisheries. In the summer of 1992, Canada declared a moratorium, a suspension, on the Northern Cod fishery because the Northern Cod biomass had fell to 1% of its earlier level due to mismanagement. “The collapse of the Northern Cod fishery marked a profound change in the ecological, economic and socio-cultural structure of Atlantic Canada.” Because the economy depended on the fishery, many lost their jobs and the supply of northern cod in that area diminished significantly. To this day the fishery is still closed, allowing the cod to attempt to repopulate. In around the 1950s, technological advances allowed fishers to increase the volume of their catch by increasing the area and the depth at which they fished. Many fish caught were not the northwest cod, but other non-commercial fish that were important ecologically. This bycatch further disrupted the ecosystem by removing predator and prey species. Not only did the people of the region lose their jobs, they also lost entire businesses, investments in the form of fishing boats, and part of their cultural identity. A study by CBC News in the summer of 2011 indicated that the northern cod fishery may recover in the future, suggesting major changes to marine ecosystems may be reversed with time and government regulation. Thus, it is not too late to save many of the fisheries.

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