Politics Updates tgfl lab
Download 319.57 Kb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- On November 2nd its probable that Democrats will lose seats in the House and Senate but still retain control of both bodies. Voters are angry
- Empirically proven, the Democrats will lose seats in the house and Senate- Governing parties tend to lose seats in mid-term elections Abramowitz 2009
GOP Winning --- SenateDemocrats will lose senate seats – Polls show 75% of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing. Burnett, Bob 3-28-2010, ( 3-28-2010, “ Forecasting the 2010 Mid-term Elections” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-burnett/forecasting-the-2010-mid_b_593177.html) Less than six months out from the November 2nd US midterm elections, pundits continue to predict that Republicans will reduce Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, perhaps take control of the House. Seven factors will determine the final outcome. First, the economy will play an important role. While most Americans feel the economy has stabilized, there remains a great deal of apprehension. Although 55 percent of recent poll respondents feel the US is headed in the wrong direction, most trust Democrats more than Republicans to address jobs and the economy. Nonetheless, if US unemployment remains in the nine percent range, this will hurt Democratic candidates. And, that's probably going to be the case; economic recovery is not going to be rapid, due to the fact that small businesses aren't hiring - a situation the Obama Administration is trying to get Congress to address. Second, many pundits believe the election will be a referendum on President Obama. At this point, Obama is like Ronald Reagan in that voters like him personally more than they like his specific policies. The President's favorability ratings exceed his unfavorable scores by a twelve-point margin; however, his job approval ratings show an even split. Third, Congress is much more unpopular than is the President. The latest polls indicate that 65-75 percent of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing. But there is dissatisfaction with both Parties; in voters' eyes Democrats and Republicans share the blame and voters split on whether to support a generic Democrat or Republican on November 2nd. There is an anti-incumbent mood in the country. A recent Pew Research Poll found that 27 percent of respondents were unlikely to vote for an incumbent candidate. And there is continuing anger over the bailouts. The same poll found that 49 percent of respondents were less likely to vote for a candidate if they had voted for "providing major loans to banks during the 2008 financial crisis" Fourth, the Tea Party Movement is impacting the Republican Party. An ABC News/Washington Post poll indicated that 27 percent of respondents supported the Tea Party movement - although opinions differed about what this movement represented. In the past several weeks we've seen Tea Party activists play a major role in Republican primaries in Utah and Kentucky. Some of the Tea Party candidates represent radical positions, such as getting rid of Social Security and Medicare, and it remains to be seen how well this will play in a general election. Fifth, non-political events could affect the November 2nd outcome. 2010 has already seen a failed attempt to ignite a massive bomb in Times Square, the disruption of transatlantic air traffic by ashes from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, depression of the international economy by economic turmoil in Greece, and a massive oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. Another event - the capture of Osama bin Laden or the collapse of the global economy - could prove decisive. Nonetheless, as November 2nd draws closer, it seems more likely that how well Democrats and Republicans do will depend less on exogenous factors such as how voters feel about President Obama or the Tea Party movement, and more on endogenous considerations such as the relative financial strength of the Democratic and Republican Parties and the quality of their candidates. Sixth, Democrats have raised more money than Republicans. For example, at the end of April, DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) had $27.3M cash on hand compared to the NRCC's $11.4M. However, ROLLING STONE recently reported that Bush villains Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie are leading an independent fundraising effort to benefit Republican candidates. In some races the financial hand of Rove could prove to be decisive. Finally, even in a tumultuous year, what will be decisive is the quality of the Democratic and Republican candidates. For example, Democrats are prepared to cede a Senate seat in North Dakota, where Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan is retiring, because they don't have a compelling candidate to compete with Republican John Hoeven. On the other hand, Oregon incumbent Democratic Senator Ron Wyden is expected to easily win reelection in November, because Republicans don't have an effective candidate. But in Missouri, where Republican Senator Kit Bond is retiring, the competition is expected to be very close; the prospective opponents will likely be Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan and archconservative Republican Congressman Roy Blunt. On November 2nd it's probable that Democrats will lose seats in the House and Senate but still retain control of both bodies. Voters are angry, but their anger is diffuse, directed at incumbents in both Parties. There's unlikely to be a strong tide that will carry sweep Republicans into power across the country. The wild card is the economy and, more generally, unforeseen catastrophic events. In a strange year, there's an unusual amount of uncertainty in the election. Empirically proven, the Democrats will lose seats in the house and Senate- Governing parties tend to lose seats in mid-term elections Abramowitz 2009 (Alan I. is an American political scientist and author, known for his research and writings on American politics, elections, and political parties in political science. 9-3.“Forecasting the Midterm Elections Forecasting An Early Look at What to Expect in 2010” http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2009090301/) We already know that 2010 will be a midterm election year. That means that there is a very high probability that Democrats will lose seats in the House of Representatives and a better than even chance that they will lose seats in the Senate as well. The tendency of the president’s party to lose seats in Congress, especially in the House of Representatives, is one of the best known regularities in American politics. Table 1 presents data on the results of 16 midterm elections that have taken place since the end of World War II. The president’s party has lost House seats in 14 of these 16 elections and Senate seats in 12 of 16 with an average loss of just over 24 seats in the House and between 3 and 4 seats in the Senate.
Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 319.57 Kb. Share with your friends:
|