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GOP WinningDems will lose midterms – Will hurt Obama’s chance of getting his second term CNN 7/14/10 (Jonathan Mann, staff writer, “Jobs at stake as midterms loom for Democrats,” July 14, CNN - http://www.cnn.com/2010 /POLITICS/07/14/mann.obama.unemployment/) Those 'midterms' are coming up on November 2 and they will be a preoccupation for American politics for the next four months. That is why Obama has been out looking for support in two western states and he has more campaign travel coming. Usually, the party that controls the White House and Congress expects a protest vote to push back against it in the midterms. Many Democrats fear serious losses this year, because polls suggest voters are so angry. The most recent CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll found that 73 percent of respondents think things are going badly in America -- nearly three times as many as respondents who said things are going well. Democrats believe the country's 9.5 percent unemployment rate is partly to blame. If Obama could lower that number, a lot of Democrats think it would help. Republicans see a much darker picture of the national mood. They believe that the economy, the oil spill disaster off the U.S. coast and a host of other concerns as well have convinced Americans that their government is failing."Americans don't see an economy in recovery," said Republican Congressman Kevin Brady of Texas. "They see a White House seemingly incapable of protecting our beaches or getting people back to work." President Obama has a just a few months left to spur job creation in time to have an impact on the midterms. Once they're past, candidates for the presidency will begin organizing their campaigns for the election in 2012. It will be Obama's own job that will be at stake
http://2010.newsweek.com/top-10/politics-predictions/pelosi-keeps-the-house.html] Electoral guru Charlie Cook reminds us that in the postwar era, it’s normal for a president to lose about 16 seats in his first midterm election. But the 2010 circumstances are far from normal. The economy is slowly clawing it’s way back from the worst recession in half a century, the country is embroiled in two unpopular wars, and domestic legislation on health care and climate change are making a fractious political system even more rambunctious than usual. Democrats face two distinct but related threats. First they hold 48 seats that went for both Bush and McCain in the last two elections. Second, the minority and youth turnout that helped propel Obama to victory is unlikely to be replicated in midterms, which tend to draw an older, whiter crowd. That spells potential disaster for Democrats, who are likely to lose between 20 and 30 seats. Fortunately for them though, Republicans aren’t that popular either, and there are several contests like NY-23 where battles between ultraconservatives and moderate Republicans could hand the seat to a Dem. To the chagrin of the right, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will still own the House; she’ll just have a few less folks to kick around.
With the 2010 midterm elections looming, many Democrats are nervous that double-digit unemployment and weak economic growth will cost them seats in Congress. They are right to be concerned: economic conditions influence how many seats the President's party gains or loses. But the reigning prescription for Democratic success - more jobs - is off the mark. And while robust economic growth would surely help Obama's party, the Democrats are likely to lose seats regardless. In the post-war era, midterm election outcomes are much more strongly related to economic growth than the unemployment rate. Based on our analysis of midterm elections from 1950-2006, every 1% increase in real disposable income in the year before the election saves the President's party an average of four to five seats. By contrast, there is almost no relationship between unemployment and the number of seats that the President's party gains or loses. Some are dubious that economic growth matters as much in the midst of a severe recession. However, the effect of changes in disposable income on past midterm elections is virtually the same regardless of how bad or good the economy is overall. To voters, growth is growth. The 1982 midterm elections provide a revealing illustration. Unemployment stood at almost 10%, roughly where it is now, and Republicans lost 26 House seats that year. But that is a typical number. The post-war average is 22 seats. The 1934 midterm election also occurred amid very high unemployment, and the President's party actually gained seats that year. Despite an unemployment rate twice as high as today's, voters rewarded the Democrats for the 10% increase in real disposable income in the months before the election. One thing works in the Democrats' favor: When voters use the economy to guide their decisions on Election Day, they are myopic. They rely heavily on economic trends occurring in the months just prior to the election. Voters do not, it seems, ask themselves if they're better off than they were four years ago; they ask if they're better off than they were last year. The Democrats will suffer because the President's party almost always loses seats in midterm elections. For one, the President's party cannot take advantage of his coattails at the midterm. Obama will not be on the ballot, and thus many of the newly mobilized voters who supported him in 2008 will stay home in 2010. Second, voters' assessments of the President also matter at the midterm, and those assessments are almost always more negative than they were at inauguration. This has been true for nearly every President since Truman, and Obama seems likely to be no different. If Obama were as popular now as he was in January 2009, we estimate that the Democrats would lose 27 fewer seats. Finally, parties tend to lose more seats when they have larger majorities simply because more seats are vulnerable. In this sense, the Democrats will be victims of their own historic successes in 2006 and 2008. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 319.57 Kb. Share with your friends:
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