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US-Japan relations good: Sino-Russia ties
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- A2: US-Japan relations Bad- Prolif/East Asia
- Nuclear taboo prevents proliferation. The consensus of experts agrees.
- A2: US-Japan relations Bad- Russian Econ
US-Japan relations good: Sino-Russia tiesSino Russian War leads to Extinction Sharavin Head of the Institute for Political and military analysis 2001, (Alexander Sharavin, head of the institute for political and military analysis, 10/1/2001 The Third Threat http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/5470.html) Russia may face the "wonderful" prospect of combating the Chinese army, which, if full mobilization is called, is comparable in size with Russia's entire population, which also has nuclear weapons (even tactical weapons become strategic if states have common borders) and would be absolutely insensitive to losses (even a loss of a few million of the servicemen would be acceptable for China). Such a war would be more horrible than the World War II. It would require from our state maximal tension, universal mobilization and complete accumulation of the army military hardware, up to the last tank or a plane, in a single direction (we would have to forget such "trifles" like Talebs and Basaev, but this does not guarantee success either). Massive nuclear strikes on basic military forces and cities of China would finally be the only way out, what would exhaust Russia's armament completely. We have not got another set of intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-based missiles, whereas the general forces would be extremely exhausted in the border combats. In the long run, even if the aggression would be stopped after the majority of the Chinese are killed, our country would be absolutely unprotected against the "Chechen" and the "Balkan" variants both, and even against the first frost of a possible nuclear winter. A2: US-Japan relations Bad- Prolif/East AsiaRelations Solve East Asia ProlifNye and Armitage 7[Joseph Nye University Distinguished Service Professor and Richard Armitage Deputy Secretary of State, “The U.S. Japan Alliance”, Feburary 2007, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/070216_asia2020.pdf ]To address the growing threat of missile proliferation in the region, the United States and Japan have cooperated to develop missile defense technologies and concepts. The United States and Japan are now in the process of producing and employing a missile defense system, sharing the technological capabilities of the world’s two largest economies. By cooperating on this important venture, Japan will benefit from the synergies resulting from a missile defense command and control system, improving its joint operational systems and our bilateral ability to quickly share critical information. To produce and employ missile defense systems successfully together, Japan changed its prohibition on military exports, allowing such exports to the United States. Through all of these measures, the alliance made rapid progress in defense cooperation to meet challenges imposed by the existing security environment. Nuclear taboo prevents proliferation. The consensus of experts agrees.Yoshihara and Holmes ‘9 (Toshi, Research Fellow and resident expert on Security Issues in the Asia-Pacific – Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, MA Int’l. Affairs – Johns Hopkins, Phd Candidate – Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts U., and James, PhD – Fletcher School and Senior Research Associate – UGA Center for International Trade, Naval War College Review, “Thinking about the Unthinkable: Tokyo’s Nuclear Option”, 62:3, Summer, Ebsco) In any event, Japan's "nuclear allergy" persists to the present day. Matake Kamiya explains Tokyo's self-imposed injunction against bomb making in terms of the general pacifism codified in Japan's peace constitution, lingering memories of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and antimilitary sentiments dating from the interwar years. (11) As a result, concludes Kamiya, opposition to nuclear weapons "is deeply embedded in postwar Japanese culture and society.... [I]t is still far stronger, even today, than those who warn of impending Japanese nuclear armament realize." (12) The vast majority of observers in Japan and in the West are inclined to agree with Kamiya, if for different reasons. Indeed, very few scholars have lent credence to rationales for a nuclear buildup. (13) Tetsuya Endo, a former vice chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission of Japan, argues that while Japan possesses the technical capabilities to stage a nuclear breakout, the material costs combined with the prospects of international isolation would deter Tokyo from pursuing such an option. (14) Brad Glosserman cautions that Japan likely would not survive intact as a nation-state following a nuclear exchange--even a limited one--owing to its lack of strategic depth and the extremely high population density throughout the Japanese Archipelago. (15) Llewelyn Hughes identifies a series of domestic institutional constraints, ranging from constitutional to informal, that have anchored Tokyo securely to the U.S. nuclear guarantee. (16) Others believe that Japan is actively pursuing other strategic options, including strengthening its own conventional military capabilities and deepening its alliance ties to the United States, as substitutes for an independent nuclear deterrent. (17) In sum, normative, material, geographic, institutional, and strategic considerations militate against going nuclear. A2: US-Japan relations Bad- Russian EconEmpirically denied: Russian economy has collapsed countless times and their impacts haven’t occurredRussia’s economy is resilient – strong foreign investment and reservesGarrels 2008 Roving foreign correspondent for NPR’s foreign desk. (Anne Garrels, “Russia Economy Strong Despite Commodity Fallout”, NPR, September 20, 2008, page 1, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94647099) For the past six years, Russia's economy has boomed in large part because of soaring prices for oil and metals. Russia is strong in these areas — too strong, though, for a balanced economy. Russian shares have bled almost 50 percent of their value since May, but many analysts say Russia still remains a resilient economy. And after the Georgia invasion and weeks of harsh, anti-western rhetoric, both Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have tried to reassure foreign investors. When those commodities prices dropped, Russia's stock market was hit hard. "The question is if they fall significantly further," says James Fenkner with Red Star Assets in Moscow. Fenkner is one of the more cautious voices in Moscow, and other analysts like Roland Nash of Renaissance Capital look at other indicators, like direct foreign investment. "The level of foreign investment is twice the per capita of Brazil, four times that of China, and six times that of India this year," Nash says. "The market arguments for Russia are still very good and there is still a lot of money coming in." Too Dependent On Commodities The Russia government recognizes it is too dependent on commodities, and while their prices were high, it amassed huge reserves as a cushion. The country now has a balanced budget and financial analysts predict its economy will continue to grow at about six percent. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 1.27 Mb. Share with your friends:
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