US-China relations low – North Korea

US-China relations low – North Korea

US and China are clashing over China’s refusal to pressure North Korea

New York Times 6/30 [2010, China Returns U.S. Criticism Over Sinking of Korean Ship, lexis]
BEIJING -- Three days after President Obama emerged from a tense meeting with President Hu Jintao of China, and accused Beijing of ''willful blindness'' toward North Korea's military provocations, the Chinese government on Tuesday continued the argument about how to handle its testy neighbor. In a regularly scheduled news conference, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry dismissed American calls for a tough line against North Korea, most recently for the sinking of a South Korean naval ship. The spokesman, Qin Gang, suggested that Mr. Obama had overreached when he accused Beijing of ''turning a blind eye'' to what an international investigation concluded was a North Korean torpedo attack in March on the ship. The sinking of the Cheonan, which killed 46 South Korean sailors, has intensified already strained relations between the North and the South and thrown into stark relief China's long-standing role as a patron of Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader. Mr. Qin contended that China had even more reason than the United States to view the sinking with gravity. ''China is a neighbor of the Korean Peninsula, and on this issue our feelings differ from a country that lies 8,000 kilometers distant,'' he said. ''We feel even more direct and serious concerns.'' United States officials indicated that Mr. Obama was likely to continue trying to step up pressure on China and North Korea, including authorizing new military exercises with South Korea that would take place not far from Chinese waters. Mr. Obama's strategy appears intended to demonstrate to China that it would pay a price for failing to rein in the North Koreans, who depend on China for food and fuel. On Saturday, Mr. Obama announced that the United States would extend by three years, until 2015, an agreement under which American commanders would take control of South Korean forces in the event of a military clash with the North. When United States officials first briefed reporters on the meeting between Mr. Obama and Mr. Hu on Saturday during the Group of 20 summit meeting in Toronto, they described a largely friendly session that covered economic and security issues. But in recent days, American officials have acknowledged that the conversation took a decidedly tougher turn when it came to North Korea, and that Mr. Obama emerged from the meeting frustrated at Mr. Hu's unwillingness to acknowledge the North's actions, much less put additional pressure on the country.
China and the US are at odds over North Korea in a UN investigation

New York Times 6/30 [2010, China Returns U.S. Criticism Over Sinking of Korean Ship, lexis]
The dispute is playing out now in the United Nations. A watered-down ''president's statement'' is under debate in the Security Council that would acknowledge the findings of a South Korean-led investigation, which included experts from four other countries, that concluded that a North Korean submarine sank the ship. China has led the opposition to the statement and to the idea that the North would have to pay any price for the act of aggression, which some American officials say was essentially an act of war. An American official familiar with the conversation between Mr. Obama and Mr. Hu said that the discussion of the sinking was ''the toughest part of a generally positive'' talk. Mr. Hu spoke only in generalities to Mr. Obama about the need for ''peace and stability'' on the Korean Peninsula, the official said. Those are traditional code words for doing nothing that could result in the collapse of the North Korean government, which could result in a flood of refugees into China and might eliminate China's buffer with American forces in the South. Mr. Obama responded that the North Koreans should not be ''indulged'' for acts of aggression, the official said, and he said that if China were truly interested in preventing the outbreak of hostilities in its region, it would take a much tougher line. It was at a news conference a short time later that Mr. Obama said ''willful blindness'' would not solve the problem.

AT: China dialogue solves rels now

U.S. actions not talk are the key internal link to relations –upcoming military exercises prove

South China Morning Post 7/2 [2010, PLA opens door for visit by US defence chief;
Robert Gates can come to Beijing at appropriate time, general says, lexis]

Professor Gao Haikuan, a security specialist with the mainland-based Chinese Association for International Friendly Contacts, said Ma was sending out a positive signal without giving a definite answer. "His remarks make things look flexible now," Gao said. " ... But it all depends on how the Pentagon handles bilateral relations from now on. If they do something to make China unhappy, China may change its mind again." A case in point is a joint military drill between the US and South Korea later this month, which could further complicate bilateral military ties as the Pentagon is considering sending an aircraft carrier to participate in an exercise in the Yellow Sea. The drill is intended as a warning to Pyongyang, which Seoul has accused of sinking its corvette, the Cheonan, in March, killing 46 sailors. The hermit state denies it torpedoed the vessel. Beijing has warned that it is "extremely concerned" about the war games. In an apparent move to protest against the possible presence of a US aircraft carrier on its doorstep, the PLA is staging live-fire naval exercises in the East China Sea, close to the Yellow Sea. They began on Wednesday and will end on Monday.

AT: Military – non-military spillover

Military and non-military ties don’t spill over

South China Morning Post 7/2 [2010, PLA opens door for visit by US defence chief;
Robert Gates can come to Beijing at appropriate time, general says, lexis]

Military ties between the two powers have not developed as well as relationships in other areas. At the G20 summit in Canada last week, President Hu Jintao accepted US President Barack Obama's invitation of a state visit. In a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the summit, Obama told Hu that Washington was looking forward to an invitation for a visit to Beijing by Gates in the coming months. Hu's acceptance of the state visit invitation came just a week after Beijing's decision to allow the yuan to float freely against the dollar. Obama sidestepped the currency issue during his meeting with Hu.

AT: China rejected Gates visit

China will allow Gates visit signaling upturn in relations

South China Morning Post 7/2 [2010, PLA opens door for visit by US defence chief;
Robert Gates can come to Beijing at appropriate time, general says, lexis]

A senior military official said yesterday that China would welcome a visit from US Defence Secretary Robert Gates at an "appropriate" time, which may be an indication that Beijing is ready to resume bilateral military exchanges. "Our stance remains that when both sides consider it's appropriate, [China welcomes] his visit," said General Ma Xiaotian, deputy chief of the People's Liberation Army general staff, in Beijing. Ma's remarks came one month after Beijing turned down a US proposal that Gates visit China, a move that Washington considered a snub to its fence-mending efforts. The PLA at that time reportedly told the Pentagon that it was not a convenient time for Gates to visit, without elaborating.

AT: China key to pressure North korea

US arms sales to Taiwan prevent China from pressuring North Korea

South China Morning Post 7/2 [2010, PLA opens door for visit by US defence chief;
Robert Gates can come to Beijing at appropriate time, general says, lexis]

Beijing has halted high-level military exchanges since January to protest against Washington's decision to proceed with US$6.4 billion worth of arms sales to Taiwan, which China considers a renegade province. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act commits the US to the defence of Taiwan and authorises arms sales to aid its defence. After his visit request was turned down, Gates warned at a security conference in Singapore that the lack of contact between China and the US would damage security in Asia. With nuclear-related problems in North Korea and Iran showing signs of escalation, Washington has been pressing Beijing for its assistance to resolve the issues. Beijing voted for a watered-down version of a United Nations Security Council resolution against Tehran but has remained committed to its North Korean ally. Ma has said that arms sales to Taiwan are one of the three major obstacles in bilateral military ties.

AT: China-Taiwan FTA solves stability

China-Taiwan FTA won’t create stability- alienates Taiwanese opposition and South Korea

Straits Times 7/1 [2010, Not all cheers within Taiwan for trade pact, lexis]

THE landmark trade pact between China and Taiwan signed two days ago has been hailed as one that will usher in a new era of cross-strait ties. It grabbed headlines worldwide, reflecting the significance of the deal. The agreement will certainly give a fillip to the Taiwan economy. But not all in Taiwan are enamoured of the deal. On Tuesday, envoys from both sides signed the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (Ecfa), a broad agreement to liberalise trade and investments between the two. As the Chairman of the Taiwan-based Straits Exchange Foundation Chiang Pin-kung said yesterday: the two sides had completed 'the most important ever project in cross-strait economic and trade exchanges'. Tariffs will be removed on 539 Taiwanese commodity items, and barriers will be removed on Taiwanese investment in 11 sectors in China, including banking, accounting and hospitals. The pact will also see tariffs being slashed on 267 Chinese commodity items and will allow Chinese investments in nine service sectors in Taiwan. While both sides will benefit, many analysts saw the deal as one that mattered more to Taiwan. DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying, for instance, noted that Taiwanese manufacturers will be in a better position to compete in the Chinese market, with the island's services sectors also given a chance to develop in China. This should help Taiwan move further up the value chain. Chinese consumers will also benefit, not least from cheaper fruit, vegetables and fish from Taiwan. As South Korea's Chosun Ilbo newspaper noted, the pact is expected to create a greater China market, covering mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau, with 1.36 billion consumers and a combined gross domestic product of US $5.39 trillion (S $7.5 trillion). In strengthening cross-strait relations and putting ties on the path towards normalisation, the pact also contributes to peace and stability in the region. But despite the positive atmospherics at the signing ceremony in Chongqing, the pact is not welcome news for everyone, not least Asian competitors like South Korea which fear the threat to their own exports from enhanced Taiwanese exports to China. Within Taiwan itself, the deal is highly controversial, sparking demonstrations involving tens of thousands over the weekend. The run-up to the negotiation sparked debate even more intense than is normal in politically polarised Taiwan. Taiwan's pro-independence opposition questioned a trade deal that would tie Taiwan even closer to China. Their fear is that Taiwan may be tying itself too tightly to a possessive partner who may not let it woo others via trade pacts. Despite the promise of warming ties, sceptics remind Taiwanese that China still sees Taiwan as a renegade province that may be reclaimed by force if necessary. After all, China has stuck to its guns about not removing the more than 1,300 missiles aimed at Taiwan.

***ALLIED PROLIF***

Allied prolif/ Heg u: US resolve/ cred high

Obama’s resolve on multiple foreign policy issues is strengthening US credibility and building alliances- those who stand in our way are only making themselves look like jimmies

Kagan 6/29 [Robert, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010, Washington Post, For Obama, 5 victories in foreign policy, lexis]
All administrations have ups and downs in foreign policy. It's like hitting a baseball: When you fail 70 percent of the time, you make the all-star team. So when the Obama administration has a month like this past one, it deserves recognition. President Obama's biggest move, of course, was naming Gen. David Petraeus commander in Afghanistan. The decision signaled Obama's determination to succeed in Afghanistan, despite the growing chorus of wise men counseling, as our wise men always seem to do, a rapid retreat. Those in the region who have been calculating on an American departure in July 2011, regardless of conditions on the ground, should think again. That date was never realistic, and the odds that Petraeus will counsel a premature withdrawal -- or be ordered to withdraw regardless of his assessment of the situation -- is infinitesimal. The second success was the U.N. Security Council resolution on Iran. Yes, it was too mild, badly watered down by China and Russia. Yes, the administration oversold how much Russia acceded to American desires. But the administration did get a resolution, only a little later than planned, and passage kicked off additional sanctions by Europeans and others. Will this by itself stop Iran from getting a bomb? No. But it does increase the pressure on the Tehran regime, which may indirectly help those Iranians who dare to struggle for a new kind of government. Nor did Turkey and Brazil's votes against the resolution, following their pro-Iranian diplomacy, do more than discredit their leaders in decent world opinion -- imagine voting no even as China and Russia vote yes. The idea that their actions heralded their emergence as world powers is off the mark. If anything, they diminished and slowed what had been their rise to global respectability. Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva looked silly and out of his depth. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan solidified Turkey's image as the lone NATO member that chooses Iran and Syria over its allies. Good work. But the administration handled that well, too. A Jimmy Carter might have felt compelled to applaud Turkey and Brazil. An administration determined to avoid confrontation with Iran might even have swung behind their diplomatic efforts. Led by Hillary Clinton, this administration gave them the back of its hand and made clear that they were not ready to play in the big leagues. Going a step further, it has declared that Turkey's behavior is damaging its relationship with the United States and its NATO allies. Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon warned last week that Turkish actions have placed its "orientation" in doubt and were making it "harder for the United States to support some of the things that Turkey would like to see us support." That was exactly the right message. The administration's policy toward Japan hasn't been pretty, but it has worked. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's resignation this month had to do with his mishandling of the dispute over the American base in Okinawa and his broader attempt to reorient Japanese foreign policy toward a middle course between the United States and China. The Obama administration was firm but engaged, and the result has been Japanese reaffirmation of its commitment to the U.S. alliance. This has more to do with Japan's fear of China than anything else, but the administration deserves credit for helping steer it in the right direction. Separately, President Obama signaled a new determination to achieve a free-trade agreement with South Korea. After many hollow claims by administration officials that the United States "is back" in Asia, this would be the first actual evidence. If Congress can be persuaded to pass the agreement -- and Obama's own party has been the chief obstacle -- it will help correct this administration's excessive and largely unsuccessful efforts to make China the cornerstone of U.S. policy in Asia. Finally, on an issue where the administration has been weakest, there was a sign of a shift. Amid the happy talk and hamburgers last week, the administration made clear that there is one area of continuing disagreement between the United States and Russia: Georgia. In its public "Reset Fact Sheet," the White House declared that the "Obama Administration continues to have serious disagreements with the Russian government over Georgia. We continue to call for Russia to end its occupation of the Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia." The word "occupation" is a clear sign that the administration has not swept this issue under the rug. Maybe Obama understands that the "reset" will never be a success so long as Russian troops continue to occupy their neighbors' territories.

Allied prolif – troops k opcon cred

Troops are key to OPCON credibility

Yonhap 7/5 [2010, BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific – Political, South Korean army chief vows to boost readiness against North, lexis]
North Korea, which denies it is responsible for the attack, has warned that any attempts to punish the nation for the attack will trigger war. Despite the North's harsh rhetoric, the South's military officials have said there were no signs of unusual military activities by the North. In a signal to deter North Korea from further violence, South Korea and the US agreed last month to delay Seoul's planned retaking of wartime operational control (OPCON) of its troops from Washington from 2012 to 2015. The US, which stations some 28,500 troops here, currently assumes the OPCON of all military forces in South Korea if war were to break out on the peninsula. Han said he would work to take back the OPCON in 2015, while closely forging military cooperation with the US "Strong military alliance with the US is a cornerstone to keep peace on the Korean Peninsula," Han said.

AT: Allied prolif – south korea

South Korea is already preparing for confrontation with North Korea

Yonhap 7/5 [2010, BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific – Political, South Korean army chief vows to boost readiness against North, lexis]
SEOUL, July 5 (Yonhap) - South Korea's new military chief pledged Monday [5 July] to increase readiness to make a stern retaliation to any possible provocations by North Korea amid high tensions. "I will make the military maintain a full-fledged defence posture to immediately repel any provocations by the enemy," Gen. Han Min-koo, the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in his inauguration ceremony. Han cautioned of heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula as North Korea threatens the South with military action following its deadly torpedo attack on the Ch'o'nan [Cheonan] warship in March that killed 46 sailors. "Taking lessons from the Ch'o'nan [Cheonan] incident, our military will be reborn as a strong military to restore pride and honour," Han said. The 57-year-old Han, formerly Army chief of staff, was named to serve in the top military post on June 14, replacing Gen. Lee Sang-eui, who retired to take responsibility for the sinking of the Ch'o'nan [Cheonan].

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