Report of the Working Group on Petroleum & Natural Gas Sector for the XI plan
Crude Oil Requirements and Imports
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- Table 9.10: Yearwise Crude Oil requirements during XI Plan (MMT) Particulars 2007-08
- Table 9.11: Yearwise Crude Oil Imports during XI Plan (MMT) Particulars 2007-08
- Table 9.12: Year-wise Crude Oil Self Sufficiency during XI Plan ( %) Particulars 2007-08
- Imports/Exports of Products
- Table 9.13: Year-wise Import/Export of petroleum products Base Case (MMT)
- Upper Case (MMT) Particulars 2007-08
- Sustainability of Imports and Crude Oil Availability
- Table 9.14: Crude Oil Proved Reserves Position of Major Producing Countries Country
- Million b/d Year World Oil Production
Crude Oil Requirements and ImportsCrude oil imports have been estimated based on the crude processing as indicated by refineries and net indigenous crude availability. It is estimated that by the end of XI Plan period the imported crude requirements would be 195.49 MMT. Imported crude oil requirement goes up substantially during the plan as indigenous crude production increases only marginally while the refining capacity is increasing substantially. Clearly, infrastructure would have to cater to higher imports. It is expected that there will not be any constraints in meeting future imported crude oil requirement.
Self Sufficiency Based on estimated indigenous crude oil production, production from non-refinery sources and demand estimates for base case, the self sufficiency of products for the XI Plan period is as given below.
Due to stagnant indigenous crude oil production and increasing demand the self-sufficiency is estimated to decline during the XI Plan period from 27.8 percent in 2007-08 to 16.8 percent in 2011-12. Imports/Exports of Products The production of products is projected to increase to 218 MMT by the end of XI Plan and to 286 MMT by the end of XII Plan. As a result of large capacity additions expected in the XI Plan period, the surplus/deficit situation will undergo a major change. The projected import and export requirements are projected below for both the cases.
The export of petroleum products from India show a very high growth and India could become a major petroleum product exporter. There is a possibility of simultaneous import and export of some products due to economic situation, logistics etc. Based on the supply demand situation the following may be noticed: LPG continues to be in deficit. However by the end of the XI Plan the deficit comes down to a very low level. Products like LOBS and Bitumen would continue to remain in deficit. FO and LSHS will become substantially deficit in the last two years of the XI Plan. This is due to the fact that many new refineries and modernization of existing refineries envisage setting up of cokers resulting in substantial decrease in production of heavy products like FO and LSHS and converting them into distillate products. In the process there is a marked increase in production of petroleum coke. For all other products like Naphtha, MS, ATF/SKO, and HSD the country will have huge surplus. Globally too, heavy products appear to become deficit by the same time, indicating the need for building in some flexibility in the refineries so that only those products are produced which have a ready market. Caveats By the end of XI Plan, the export of petroleum products is projected to be in the range of 84 MMT to 93 MMT, though this number could be lower, if some refineries commence production in the next Five Year Plan. In any case, the export of petroleum products from India shows a very high growth. There is a possibility of simultaneous import and export of some products due to economic situation, logistics etc. While India could become a major petroleum product exporter, export infrastructure would need to be created. Further, for India to emerge as a serious exporter it is necessary that the refineries that are now expanding or coming up, particularly the coastal refineries, ensure that they can meet the latest fuel specifications of the developed world. This could mean Euro V standards for products exported to Europe by 2009. By 2010, all diesel sold in the US would require to be ultra low sulphur (15 ppm sulphur at retail end or just 5ppm at refinery gate). While planning for domestic requirements, the refineries must consider the change in refinery gate price to trade parity for MS and HSD. The ratio of import parity and export parity will under go a change every year depending upon the past experience. If ratio of exports increases then, domestic realization for MS and HSD will fall accordingly. Refinery projects require factoring the above conclusions. Projected world production balances indicate an interesting change. While currently the world appears to be deficit in light and middle distillates and surplus in heavy ends, due to new deep processing capacity, by 2010, the production balance switches to show large surpluses in light and middle distillate but huge deficit in heavy ends. Domestic demand-production profile indicates a similar situation for the domestic refinery where both FO and LSHS could have a deficit of over 4 MMT in the base case or over 5 MMT in the high case. New refineries thus would need to carefully plan their slates. In any case a little flexibility in varying the slate would enable them to produce what is profitable – either for domestic requirement or for exports. Finally, new crude production is heavier, and with high sulphur content. New refineries should be able to run only on such crude while existing refineries must plan expansions and facilities to process larger quantities of heavy, high sulphur and acidic crude. Sustainability of Imports and Crude Oil Availability Crude oil proved reserves position of the major crude oil producing countries is as follows:
A comparison between anticipated world crude oil production (as projected by EIA in International Energy Outlook 2005) and India’s crude imports is given below.
It may be noted that the above crude imports are based on crude throughput in Indian refineries with a substantial product export. If crude throughput to meet only the indigenous demand on overall basis were considered the requirements would be reduced to that extent. In such a case the scenario would be as below.
As seen from the above, it is expected that there will not be any constraints in meeting future imported crude oil requirement. A point though on quality of crude is in order. Increasingly, the global production of crude is veering towards heavier, high sulphur and acidic crude. Refineries would do well to build in ability to process such types of crude at 100 percent level. Directory: aboutus -> committee -> wrkgrp11 aboutus -> A voice In The Wilderness aboutus -> Curriculum vitae daniel allen weymouth aboutus -> Mock or skit: Date: April 21st 2016 Location: Kennard-Dale High School Time: 0700-1245 aboutus -> Indonesia individual Action Plan Update for Indonesia for 2016 aboutus -> Spartan Speak Newsletter aboutus -> Ryan Minor aboutus -> Concern behavioral and Management Solutions wrkgrp11 -> Ministry of Environment & Forests, Government of India Report of wrkgrp11 -> Report of working group on automotive industry Download 1.87 Mb. Share with your friends:
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