Reducing military aggression will bring North Korea to the negotiating table
Zhe, February 2016[Sun, Sun Zhe is currently an adjunct senior research scholar and co-director of the China Initiative at School of International and Public Affairs of Columbia University, “What New Approach Should the U.S. and China Take to North Korea?”, February 10, https://www.chinafile.com/conversation/what-new-approach-should-us-and-china-take-north-korea] North Korea’s continued bomb tests have apparently infuriated China, so why is Beijing still reluctant to react with harsh sanctions? China’s policy on North Korea reflects both its regional interests and global aspirations. There are two main aspects: first, China does not want to hurt or is not ready to abandon the traditional relationship and turn itself into an enemy of the DPRK. As a matter of fact, China has tried very hard to push a three- step dialogue, beginning with a consensus between the North and South, extending to a North Korea-U.S. dialogue, and then ending with a peaceful solution found in the Six Party Talks. China’s logic is that the DPRK will not give up its provocative acts unless it obtains a minimum security guarantee from the U.S. If all these positive steps cannot be achieved, then at least the head-on blow against the DPRK should not come from China directly. Secondly, any change of China’s North Korea policy should not be seen as a product of U.S.-China cooperation to put pressure on North Korea. Indeed, despite serious debates in China over whether North Korea is a strategic liability or an asset, many Chinese commentators are deeply concerned with military reactions by the U.S. and its allies in the region. The general perception that the U.S. spares no efforts to keep China, rather than North Korea, down is real among Chinese citizens and government officials. For instance, the U.S. overreacted by sending B-2s and B52s to participate in repeated military drills in the past. North Korea should be free of nuclear weapons but launching any regime-change strike against Pyongyang should not be the policy choice. Even a THAAD system in the region, in China’s view, might compose a bigger challenge to regional security than did North Korea’s latest launch. The contest of will between North Korea and international community will continue but it is necessary for the U.S. and China to better comprehend each other’s policy limits and fashion some joint actions to help avoid conflicts and confrontations that neither side wants on the Korean Peninsula. It will not be easy to do it, since the U.S. seems to lose “strategic patience” on China as well. Without China’s cooperation, will the U.S. mobilize its allies and take unilateral military actions such as a surgical strike against the DPRK? It’s highly unlikely at this time. The question left for us to consider then is this: If relations between China and the U.S. over the last two decades can generally be characterized as a mix of broad contact, substantial cooperation, deep competition, and occasional confrontation, can these two countries launch another round of dialogue on the Korean issue to find a way of turning black clouds into silver linings? Perhaps neither side is ready yet. But without these two countries working together, a “forced choice” strategy putting new pressure for North Korea will not work alone.
Security guarantees bring China to our side
The Huffington Post, March 2016[“How to Convince China to Cooperate Against North Korea”, March 27, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/doug-bandow/how-to-convince-china-to_b_9554496.html] Washington must make a compelling case to the PRC. The U.S. should begin by pointing out how unstable the current situation is, with an unpredictable, uncontrollable regime dedicated to creating a nuclear arsenal of undetermined size bolstered by intercontinental missiles and submarine-launched missiles. The Kim dynasty has been ostentatiously brutal in ways suggesting paranoia and insecurity. All this makes South Korea and its American patron ever more nervous. Much could go wrong — to China’s detriment. At the same time, the U.S., along with its allies, the ROK and Japan, should put together a serious offer for the North in return for denuclearization. The PRC has repeatedly insisted that America’s hostile policy underlies the DPRK nuclear program. Beijing responded acerbically to Washington’s latest criticism: “The origin and crux of the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula has never been China,” said a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman: “The key to solving the problem is not China.” Washington and its allies should offer a peace treaty, diplomatic recognition, membership in international organizations, the end of economic sanctions, suspension of joint military exercises, and discussions over a continued American troop presence. This should be presented to the PRC for its advice — and to demonstrate that the allies are serious about engaging Pyongyang, reducing the threats which Beijing contends are driving the North Korean nuclear program. Washington then should ask for China’s backing. At the same time, the U.S., South Korea, and Tokyo should promise to share the cost of caring for North Koreans and restoring order in the case of regime collapse. The U.S. and South should indicate their willingness to accept temporary Chinese military intervention in the event of bloody chaos. The ROK should promise to respect Beijing’s economic interests while pointing to the far greater opportunities that would exist in a unified Korea. Finally, Washington should pledge to withdraw U.S. troops in the event of unification. The reason for America’s presence would have expired and the PRC’s assistance would not be turned against China. Getting Beijing’s cooperation still would be a long-shot. It’s certainly not going to happen in response to imperious demands from Washington. The U.S. will need to practice the art of diplomacy and make a seemingly bad deal attractive to a skeptical adversary. But the effort is worth a try. The U.S. and its allies have run out of serious options to forestall a nuclear North Korea.