Appendix II A.II.1. Results of applying CMSY to 18 data-limited ICCAT stocks

Name and region: Blackfin tuna , A+M

Catch data used from years 1950 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.4 - 0.8 in year 1960

Prior final relative biomass = 0.01 - 0.4

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 5.61 - 67.3

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 308 viable trajectories for 296 r-k pairs

144 r-k pairs above r = 0.206 and 128 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.217 , 95% CL = 0.207 - 0.229 , k = 42.7 , 95% CL = 39.5 - 45.8

MSY = 2.32 , 95% CL = 2.21 - 2.43

Predicted biomass last year= 0.239 , 2.5th = 0.0195 , 25th = 0.111 , 97.5th = 0.392

Predicted biomass next year= 0.244 , 2.5th = -0.00996 , 25th = 0.0984 , 97.5th = 0.411

Species: Auxis rochei , stock: BLT

Name and region: Bullet tuna , A+M

Catch data used from years 1950 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.4 - 0.8 in year 1955

Prior final relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 21.9 - 176

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 9649 viable trajectories for 4724 r-k pairs

4134 r-k pairs above r = 0.257 and 6517 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.343 , 95% CL = 0.258 - 0.456 , k = 81 , 95% CL = 50.4 - 130

MSY = 6.95 , 95% CL = 4.78 - 10.1

Predicted biomass last year= 0.673 , 2.5th = 0.426 , 25th = 0.586 , 97.5th = 0.795

Predicted biomass next year= 0.656 , 2.5th = 0.39 , 25th = 0.563 , 97.5th = 0.786

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Species: Sarda sarda , stock: BON_ATL

Name and region: Atlantic bonito , ATL

Catch data used from years 1950 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.4 - 0.8 in year 1953

Prior final relative biomass = 0.01 - 0.4

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 22.1 - 265

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 1558 viable trajectories for 608 r-k pairs

489 r-k pairs above r = 0.266 and 823 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.449 , 95% CL = 0.273 - 0.74 , k = 78.6 , 95% CL = 46.2 - 134

MSY = 8.83 , 95% CL = 8.28 - 9.41

Predicted biomass last year= 0.278 , 2.5th = 0.0237 , 25th = 0.167 , 97.5th = 0.395

Predicted biomass next year= 0.274 , 2.5th = -0.0536 , 25th = 0.138 , 97.5th = 0.41

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Species: Sarda sarda , stock: BON_MED

Name and region: Atlantic bonito , MED

Catch data used from years 1950 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.4 - 0.8 in year 1953

Prior final relative biomass = 0.01 - 0.4

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 72.7 - 873

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 1975 viable trajectories for 1319 r-k pairs

631 r-k pairs above r = 0.236 and 664 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.341 , 95% CL = 0.245 - 0.476 , k = 263 , 95% CL = 182 - 381

MSY = 22.5 , 95% CL = 20.8 - 24.2

Predicted biomass last year= 0.276 , 2.5th = 0.0295 , 25th = 0.189 , 97.5th = 0.397

Predicted biomass next year= 0.261 , 2.5th = -0.0309 , 25th = 0.158 , 97.5th = 0.392

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