Appendix 4. Stocks updated with expert input and CPUE

Species: Thunnus atlanticus , stock: BLF

Name and region: Blackfin tuna , A+M

Catch data used from years 1980 - 2013 , biomass = CPUE

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.3 - 0.9 in year 1990

Prior final relative biomass = 0.01 - 0.4

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 5.61 - 67.3

Prior range of q = 0.0447 - 0.179

Results from Bayesian Schaefer model using catch & CPUE biomass

r = 0.51 , 95% CL = 0.461 - 0.607 , k = 23.8 , 95% CL = 20.3 - 27.4

MSY = 3.06 , 95% CL = 2.69 - 3.49

q = 0.055 , lcl = 0.0422 , ucl = 0.0724

Biomass in last year from q*CPUE = 8.7 or 0.366 k

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 1456 viable trajectories for 389 r-k pairs

164 r-k pairs above r = 0.29 and 531 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.484 , 95% CL = 0.301 - 0.779 , k = 23.8 , 95% CL = 13.9 - 40.5

MSY = 2.88 , 95% CL = 2.56 - 3.23

Predicted biomass last year= 0.243 , 2.5th = 0.0243 , 25th = 0.134 , 97.5th = 0.394

Predicted biomass next year= 0.267 , 2.5th = -0.0169 , 25th = 0.131 , 97.5th = 0.448

----------------------------------------------------------

Species: Scomberomorus cavalla , stock: KGM

Name and region: King mackerel , A+M

Catch data used from years 1970 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.3 - 0.9 in year 1996

Prior final relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.6 , prior range for k = 61.7 - 428

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 21847 viable trajectories for 2190 r-k pairs

1041 r-k pairs above r = 0.325 and 9691 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.44 , 95% CL = 0.328 - 0.591 , k = 147 , 95% CL = 98.2 - 220

MSY = 16.2 , 95% CL = 13.1 - 20

Predicted biomass last year= 0.738 , 2.5th = 0.437 , 25th = 0.649 , 97.5th = 0.798

Predicted biomass next year= 0.742 , 2.5th = 0.449 , 25th = 0.661 , 97.5th = 0.8

----------------------------------------------------------

Species: Acanthocybium solandri , stock: WAH

Name and region: Wahoo , A+M

Catch data used from years 1985 - 2013 , biomass = CPUE

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.3 - 0.7

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.3 - 0.9 in year 1996

Prior final relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.5 - 1 , prior range for k = 5.91 - 33.5

Less than 10 years with abundance data available, shown on second axis

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 32576 viable trajectories for 3232 r-k pairs

1632 r-k pairs above r = 0.704 and 14735 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.835 , 95% CL = 0.707 - 0.986 , k = 13.8 , 95% CL = 10 - 19

MSY = 2.88 , 95% CL = 2.13 - 3.88

Predicted biomass last year= 0.73 , 2.5th = 0.468 , 25th = 0.668 , 97.5th = 0.798

Predicted biomass next year= 0.718 , 2.5th = 0.454 , 25th = 0.654 , 97.5th = 0.793

Species: Scomberomorus brasiliensis , stock: BRS

Name and region: Serra Spanish mackerel , A+M

Catch data used from years 1970 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.3 - 0.9 in year 1988

Prior final relative biomass = 0.01 - 0.4

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 11.9 - 143

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 2190 viable trajectories for 602 r-k pairs

282 r-k pairs above r = 0.288 and 864 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.484 , 95% CL = 0.301 - 0.779 , k = 51.5 , 95% CL = 30.4 - 87.2

MSY = 6.23 , 95% CL = 5.63 - 6.91

Predicted biomass last year= 0.246 , 2.5th = 0.0216 , 25th = 0.136 , 97.5th = 0.396

Predicted biomass next year= 0.297 , 2.5th = 0.00718 , 25th = 0.16 , 97.5th = 0.473

----------------------------------------------------------