Results of preliminary runs of the cmsy-method against data limited iccat stocks

Name and region: Cero , A+M

Catch data used from years 1968 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.01 - 0.4 in year 1998

Prior final relative biomass = 0.01 - 0.4

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 1 - 12

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 1047 viable trajectories for 941 r-k pairs

430 r-k pairs above r = 0.234 and 408 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.307 , 95% CL = 0.238 - 0.397 , k = 6.11 , 95% CL = 4.46 - 8.36

MSY = 0.469 , 95% CL = 0.418 - 0.526

Predicted biomass last year= 0.3 , 2.5th = 0.14 , 25th = 0.228 , 97.5th = 0.395

Predicted biomass next year= 0.357 , 2.5th = 0.17 , 25th = 0.276 , 97.5th = 0.466

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Species: Coryphaena hippurus , stock: DOL

Name and region: Common dolphinfish , A+M

Catch data used from years 1954 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.7 - 1

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.5 - 1 in year 2003

Prior final relative biomass = 0.01 - 0.4

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.6 - 1.5 , prior range for k = 3.63 - 34.5

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 13892 viable trajectories for 1465 r-k pairs

754 r-k pairs above r = 0.94 and 6756 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 1.19 , 95% CL = 0.944 - 1.49 , k = 13.2 , 95% CL = 9.51 - 18.4

MSY = 3.92 , 95% CL = 3.21 - 4.79

Predicted biomass last year= 0.247 , 2.5th = 0.0185 , 25th = 0.128 , 97.5th = 0.395

Predicted biomass next year= 0.227 , 2.5th = -0.235 , 25th = 0.00217 , 97.5th = 0.474

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Species: Auxis thazard , stock: FRI

Name and region: Frigate tuna , ATL

Catch data used from years 1950 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.5 - 0.9

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.3 - 0.9 in year 1986

Prior final relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? No

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 51.4 - 411

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 9464 viable trajectories for 1032 r-k pairs

474 r-k pairs above r = 0.329 and 3721 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.509 , 95% CL = 0.332 - 0.781 , k = 113 , 95% CL = 68.6 - 186

MSY = 14.4 , 95% CL = 12.5 - 16.5

Predicted biomass last year= 0.785 , 2.5th = 0.54 , 25th = 0.759 , 97.5th = 0.799

Predicted biomass next year= 0.76 , 2.5th = 0.544 , 25th = 0.74 , 97.5th = 0.782

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Name and region: King mackerel , A+M

Catch data used from years 1950 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.4 - 0.8 in year 1955

Prior final relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.05 - 0.5 , prior range for k = 74.1 - 937

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 31210 viable trajectories for 9194 r-k pairs

8322 r-k pairs above r = 0.112 and 23480 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.223 , 95% CL = 0.118 - 0.424 , k = 285 , 95% CL = 132 - 617

MSY = 15.9 , 95% CL = 12.3 - 20.6

Predicted biomass last year= 0.705 , 2.5th = 0.421 , 25th = 0.602 , 97.5th = 0.797

Predicted biomass next year= 0.711 , 2.5th = 0.424 , 25th = 0.61 , 97.5th = 0.8

Species: Euthynnus alletteratus , stock: LTA_ATL

Name and region: Little tunny , ATL

Catch data used from years 1950 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.4 - 0.8 in year 1955

Prior final relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 59 - 472

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 9004 viable trajectories for 4170 r-k pairs

3691 r-k pairs above r = 0.264 and 6038 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.364 , 95% CL = 0.269 - 0.494 , k = 186 , 95% CL = 121 - 285

MSY = 16.9 , 95% CL = 13.3 - 21.6

Predicted biomass last year= 0.707 , 2.5th = 0.434 , 25th = 0.637 , 97.5th = 0.796

Predicted biomass next year= 0.701 , 2.5th = 0.426 , 25th = 0.631 , 97.5th = 0.791

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Name and region: Little tunny , MED

Catch data used from years 1950 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.4 - 0.8 in year 1955

Prior final relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 8.46 - 67.7

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 7325 viable trajectories for 3651 r-k pairs

3126 r-k pairs above r = 0.25 and 4670 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.326 , 95% CL = 0.252 - 0.422 , k = 31.3 , 95% CL = 20.5 - 47.9

MSY = 2.55 , 95% CL = 1.84 - 3.55

Predicted biomass last year= 0.695 , 2.5th = 0.431 , 25th = 0.614 , 97.5th = 0.796

Predicted biomass next year= 0.656 , 2.5th = 0.375 , 25th = 0.57 , 97.5th = 0.768

Name and region: West African Spanish mackerel , A+M

Catch data used from years 1968 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.3 - 0.9 in year 1977

Prior final relative biomass = 0.01 - 0.4

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 8.29 - 99.4

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 1395 viable trajectories for 928 r-k pairs

457 r-k pairs above r = 0.251 and 554 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.417 , 95% CL = 0.259 - 0.67 , k = 28.9 , 95% CL = 16.8 - 49.4

MSY = 3.01 , 95% CL = 2.66 - 3.41

Predicted biomass last year= 0.256 , 2.5th = 0.0332 , 25th = 0.158 , 97.5th = 0.395

Predicted biomass next year= 0.271 , 2.5th = -0.00616 , 25th = 0.157 , 97.5th = 0.434

Name and region: Porbeagle , A+M

Catch data used from years 1961 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0 - 1 in year 1987

Prior final relative biomass = 0.01 - 0.4

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.015 - 0.1 , prior range for k = 32.8 - 1017

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 22745 viable trajectories for 6297 r-k pairs

3262 r-k pairs above r = 0.0281 and 9290 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.0523 , 95% CL = 0.0289 - 0.0948 , k = 89.9 , 95% CL = 36.9 - 219

MSY = 1.18 , 95% CL = 0.658 - 2.1

Predicted biomass last year= 0.249 , 2.5th = 0.0191 , 25th = 0.141 , 97.5th = 0.396

Predicted biomass next year= 0.255 , 2.5th = 0.0184 , 25th = 0.145 , 97.5th = 0.406

Species: Isurus oxyrinchus , stock: SMA

Name and region: Shortfin mako , A+M

Catch data used from years 1971 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.4 - 0.8 in year 1980

Prior final relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.015 - 0.1 , prior range for k = 147 - 1518

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 53221 viable trajectories for 7593 r-k pairs

4064 r-k pairs above r = 0.0346 and 23662 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.0578 , 95% CL = 0.0351 - 0.0953 , k = 396 , 95% CL = 139 - 1124

MSY = 5.72 , 95% CL = 1.96 - 16.7

Predicted biomass last year= 0.66 , 2.5th = 0.418 , 25th = 0.555 , 97.5th = 0.795

Predicted biomass next year= 0.654 , 2.5th = 0.398 , 25th = 0.543 , 97.5th = 0.794

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Name and region: Atlantic Spanish mackerel , A+M

Catch data used from years 1950 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.4 - 0.8 in year 1960

Prior final relative biomass = 0.01 - 0.4

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 20.4 - 245

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 1940 viable trajectories for 959 r-k pairs

588 r-k pairs above r = 0.223 and 843 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.257 , 95% CL = 0.226 - 0.292 , k = 169 , 95% CL = 146 - 196

MSY = 10.9 , 95% CL = 10.5 - 11.3

Predicted biomass last year= 0.243 , 2.5th = 0.0243 , 25th = 0.137 , 97.5th = 0.395

Predicted biomass next year= 0.257 , 2.5th = -0.000169 , 25th = 0.136 , 97.5th = 0.423

Species: Acanthocybium solandri , stock: WAH

Name and region: Wahoo , A+M

Catch data used from years 1970 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.4 - 0.8 in year 1980

Prior final relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 7.39 - 59.1

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 1428 viable trajectories for 1166 r-k pairs

584 r-k pairs above r = 0.212 and 537 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.233 , 95% CL = 0.212 - 0.258 , k = 37.9 , 95% CL = 30.1 - 47.3

MSY = 2.21 , 95% CL = 1.72 - 2.84

Predicted biomass last year= 0.528 , 2.5th = 0.405 , 25th = 0.467 , 97.5th = 0.681

Predicted biomass next year= 0.517 , 2.5th = 0.388 , 25th = 0.454 , 97.5th = 0.675

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