Results of preliminary runs of the cmsy-method against data limited iccat stocks

Species: Orcynopsis unicolor , stock: BOP

Name and region: Plain bonito , A+M

Catch data used from years 1950 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.4 - 0.8 in year 1957

Prior final relative biomass = 0.01 - 0.4

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 3.75 - 45

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 463 viable trajectories for 414 r-k pairs

194 r-k pairs above r = 0.221 and 194 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.262 , 95% CL = 0.223 - 0.311 , k = 13.9 , 95% CL = 11.2 - 17

MSY = 0.909 , 95% CL = 0.842 - 0.982

Predicted biomass last year= 0.261 , 2.5th = 0.0246 , 25th = 0.141 , 97.5th = 0.392

Predicted biomass next year= 0.268 , 2.5th = -0.00856 , 25th = 0.132 , 97.5th = 0.412

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Species: Scomberomorus brasiliensis , stock: BRS

Name and region: Serra Spanish mackerel , A+M

Catch data used from years 1950 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.4 - 0.8 in year 1960

Prior final relative biomass = 0.01 - 0.4

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.2 - 0.8 , prior range for k = 11.9 - 143

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 1607 viable trajectories for 555 r-k pairs

455 r-k pairs above r = 0.25 and 920 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.333 , 95% CL = 0.253 - 0.438 , k = 71.9 , 95% CL = 52.9 - 97.7

MSY = 5.99 , 95% CL = 5.63 - 6.36

Predicted biomass last year= 0.237 , 2.5th = 0.0211 , 25th = 0.133 , 97.5th = 0.396

Predicted biomass next year= 0.278 , 2.5th = 0.00836 , 25th = 0.151 , 97.5th = 0.458

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Species: Prionace glauca , stock: BSH

Name and region: Blue shark , A+M

Catch data used from years 1954 - 2013 , biomass = None

Prior initial relative biomass = 0.7 - 1

Prior intermediate rel. biomass= 0.5 - 1 in year 1990

Prior final relative biomass = 0.4 - 0.8

If current catches continue, is the stock likely to crash within 3 years? Possible

Prior range for r = 0.015 - 0.1 , prior range for k = 652 - 13466

Results of CMSY analysis with altogether 80596 viable trajectories for 9749 r-k pairs

3864 r-k pairs above r = 0.0346 and 35549 trajectories within r-k CLs were analyzed

r = 0.0578 , 95% CL = 0.0351 - 0.0953 , k = 1720 , 95% CL = 728 - 4066

MSY = 24.9 , 95% CL = 12.2 - 50.5

Predicted biomass last year= 0.685 , 2.5th = 0.423 , 25th = 0.601 , 97.5th = 0.796

Predicted biomass next year= 0.66 , 2.5th = 0.372 , 25th = 0.568 , 97.5th = 0.782

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Species: Scomberomorus regalis , stock: CER