Russia 100203 Basic Political Developments
National Economic Trends RIA: Russia to keep to its 2010 budget deficit plan - finance minister
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- Prime-Tass: Kudrin sees foreign direct invest in Russia at pre-crisis level soon
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National Economic TrendsRIA: Russia to keep to its 2010 budget deficit plan - finance ministerhttp://en.rian.ru/russia/20100203/157759935.html 12:1703/02/2010 Russia's budget deficit is unlikely to fall below the projected figure of 6.8% of GDP in 2010, as the government intends to fulfill its social obligations, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said on Wednesday. "As of now, we do not predict a significant decrease in the deficit in 2010," Kudrin said at the Russia 2010 business forum in Moscow. He said while rising oil prices increase budget revenues from hydrocarbon exports, they also push up the ruble and bring down the dollar. As a result, the dollar's depreciation by 1 ruble deprives the budget of about 120 billion rubles ($3.99 billion) in revenues, the minister said. In line with the three-year budget approved late last year, Russia's budget deficit will drop to 4% of GDP in 2011 and 3% in 2012. Earlier, Kudrin said the Russian government projected inflation at 9-10% in 2010, 7-8% in 2011 and 5-7% in 2012. In 2009, the budget deficit measured only 5.9% of GDP as the budget received higher-than-expected revenues from hydrocarbon exports compared with the projected figure of 8%. MOSCOW, February 3 (RIA Novosti) Prime-Tass: Kudrin sees foreign direct invest in Russia at pre-crisis level soonhttp://www.prime-tass.com/news/show.asp?topicid=68&id=472444 MOSCOW, Feb 3 (PRIME-TASS) -- The amount of foreign direct investment in Russia is projected to reach the pre-crisis level of U.S. $60 billion–$70 billion within two to three years, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said at a forum Wednesday. “I’m sure that we will start recovering the level of foreign direct investments that was reached before the crisis, and the amount of foreign direct investments will reach $60 billion–$70 billion in the coming two–three years,” he said. The amount of foreign direct investments in Russia was estimated at $70 billion before the crisis and fell to $30 billion as the crisis hit the Russian economy, Kudrin said. Despite the decrease in foreign direct investment, many companies have kept their investments in Russian projects, Kudrin also said. Russia still remains attractive for foreign investments, Kudrin also said. Speaking about the government’s developing policy to support the investment climate, Kudrin said that the government will continue attracting foreign investments. “We will be attracting foreign investments and will create a favorable regime for them, especially for those who will be able to bring new technologies,” Kudrin said. Reuters: High oil doesn't mean lower Russian deficit-Kudrin http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=7735385&subject=economic&action=article MOSCOW, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Russia's budget deficit this year is unlikely to be much less than forecast as any benefit from higher oil prices will be swallowed up by the appreciation of the rouble, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said on Wednesday. Russia's budget factors in a deficit of 6.8 percent of gross domestic product in 2010 based on Urals oil averaging $58 a barrel, compared to the key export's current price of $73. "Now it (the oil price) is a bit higher. Even by our estimates it will be $65 or even higher. By IMF and World Bank estimates it will be $70-80," Kudrin, a well-known fiscal hawk, told the Troika economic forum. "(But) you cannot immediately link it to a rise in revenues. It also changes our forecast for the rouble exchange rate." Kudrin estimated that a one rouble fall in the dollar/rouble rate leads to a 120 billion rouble ($3.95 billion) reduction in budget revenues, as the same amount of dollar-denominated income from oil becomes worth less once converted into the Russian currency. "So the higher oil prices and at the same time the adjustment of the rouble exchange rate keeps us, on the whole, around the planned level of budget revenues. Consequently we do not forecast a significant fall in the deficit in 2010 compared to what was previously planned," Kudrin said. Russia posted its first budget deficit in a decade last year, although the gap came in at a smaller than forecast 5.9 percent. Kudrin has pledged to reduce the deficit, although he has admitted he faces a tough challenge to convince some politicians to keep a lid on spending as the economy recovers and revenues pick up. (Reporting by Toni Vorobyova, editing by Mike Peacock) ($1=30.39 Rouble) Keywords: RUSSIA BUDGET/ (antonina.vorobyova@reuters.com; Tel: +7495 7751242, Reuters Messaging: antonina.vorobyova.reuters.com@reuters.net) 03.02.2010 - RBC Cbonds.info: Russia emerging from crisishttp://www.cbonds.info/all/eng/news/index.phtml/params/id/453929 Russia's Economy Ministry is prepared to admit that Russia is finally coming out of the recession, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach told journalists today. “We have seen two quarters of GDP growth, even though the retail sector and investments have stagnated so far. Regardless, industrial production has also been expanding for two quarters, which is essential,” he said. With the necessary seasonal and calendar adjustments factored in, the growth first started in the third quarter of 2009, when the economy expanded by 1.1 percent, he added. In the Q4 of 2009, GDP rose 3.7 percent against Q3. Although the Q4 rate will still be adjusted against the base and revised results for the previous two quarters, Q4 will remain above expectations, Klepach continued. According to the ministry’s preliminary estimates, industrial production shrank 0.5 percent in December against November 2009, after seasonal and calendar adjustments. The fall balanced off the jump seen in November, however, and Klepach sees this as the result of uneven production dynamics, which is especially true of machinery and equipment. In November 2009, month-on-month industrial production improved 2.2 percent. With a 6.8 percent pickup in the construction industry in December, the overall Q4 expansion in the sector is likely to reach 5.1 percent, adjusted for the seasonal factor. Foreign investment (after seasonal adjustments) inched up 0.8 percent in December, and retail sales edged up 0.4 percent, which is clearly an additional sign of the economic recovery. Both investment and retail sales are expected to see a 0.3 percent growth in Q4 against Q3. Yet, even despite certain improvements, Klepach concluded, the recovery is still weak. Meanwhile, Russia's exports tumbled 35.7 percent year-on-year to $303.3bn, and imports dropped 34 percent to $192.7bn, while the previous forecasts were set at $305bn and $195bn, respectively. In December 2009, however, month-on-month exports climbed 8.4 percent to $33.7bn, and imports jumped 16 percent to $22.5bn. Nonetheless, Klepach warned against overstating the results, since such jumps are traditional for December. RBC: Russia optimistic despite shrinking direct investments http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20100203105533.shtml RBC, 03.02.2010, Moscow 10:55:33.The amount of direct investments in Russia shrank $30bn in 2009, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin announced today at the Rossiya 2010 economic forum. With this in mind, net capital outflow stood at $52bn in 2009. The minister reiterated that prior to the crisis, direct investments reached as much as $70bn per year. "Just six or seven years ago, we could hardly even dream of such an amount. I am certain that we will gradually reach the pre-crisis level, and we hope to see direct foreign investments at $60bn-$70bn in the next two or three years," the minister stated. Kudrin indicated that Russia's investment attractiveness owed itself primarily to economic measures: the improvements in the taxation system and financial legislation. At the same time, he felt that the country's macroeconomic policy "could be even more stringent," since that would lower the risks of foreign capital being of a speculative nature. Kudrin also pointed out that Russia would hail any foreign investments that would bring new technologies to the country. He concluded by saying that the crisis provided Russia with a great chance to create a more favorable investment climate, and the government must take steps to make this happen. Directory: gifiles -> attach attach -> British Forces – Akrioti, Greece Griffin Fighter Squadron (84 Squadron raf) MoD announced possible Typhoon and Tornado arrivals to the base France attach -> Russia 110204 Basic Political Developments attach -> Unclassified//for official use only attach -> Adaptability Sustainment attach -> Pop-up 1 ("C" Chechnya) Header Text: Emir of the Caucasus Emirate Doku Umarov Image attach -> Russia and Islam are not Separate attach -> Chapter 13: The Northern Caucasus attach -> Russia 100209 Basic Political Developments attach -> The evolution attach -> The devolution Download 276.41 Kb. Share with your friends:
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