Russia 100203 Basic Political Developments


The Moscow Times: Drugs Price Freeze Could Hurt Supply



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The Moscow Times: Drugs Price Freeze Could Hurt Supply


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/drugs-price-freeze-could-hurt-supply/398860.html
03 February 2010

By Yulia Shmidt / Vedomosti

Health and tariffs officials have decided to prevent pharmaceuticals companies from raising prices this year on some of their most important drugs, a move producers said could mean that some medicine will disappear from shelves.

Last week, Federal Tariffs Service chief Sergei Novikov and Nikolai Yurgel, head of the Federal Health and Social Development Inspection Service, sent a joint letter to their regional branches and to the heads of drug companies and distributors. A copy of the letter was obtained by Vedomosti, and a spokesperson for the health service confirmed its authenticity.

Yurgel and Novikov warned that they would not allow producers to raise prices this year for things on the Health and Social Development Ministry's list of vitally essential medicines. The list has 495 internationally nonpatented drugs, including arbidol, drotaverine and ibuprofen. According to the Pharmexpert market researcher, medicines from the list accounted for about 35 percent of the $16 billion Russian pharmaceuticals market last year.

The officials said they would even refuse price hikes related to rising production costs, including higher prices for substances, excise taxes on alcohol, rising rent and so forth.

The Federal Health and Social Development Inspection Service has long registered the prices for the most important medicines, but it has always been seen as a formality. Producers could justify just about any cost, said an executive at a pharmaceuticals company.

But last year, officials developed a methodology for determining prices for medicine. The document says wholesale prices can only be revised once per year and that increases cannot be greater than inflation. Additionally, the new price must take into account the average prices for the past half year, meaning that in theory, prices for medicine could even fall.

Producers are required to register their new prices by April 1. Officials apparently suspect the companies of already raising prices their prices since they aren't even planning to index them to inflation, said Sergei Shulyak, chief executive of DSM Group. The letter from Yurgel and Novikov says that during the registration process, only data for the second half of 2009 would be considered.

Spokespeople for the health watchdog and tariffs service declined to comment on the letter.

"There are objective reasons that prices for medicine rise. Attempting to freeze growth, even if it's justified, discredits the idea of the state regulating prices," said Viktor Dmitriyev, head of the Association of Russian Pharmaceuticals Producers.

He said some companies were considering reducing production or partially moving it aboard, for example, within the Commonwealth of Independent States. Another option would be raising prices for drugs that are not on the vitally essential list, Dmitriyev said.

A senior executive at a Russian pharmaceuticals company agreed that the officials' letter would mean production of some medicines would become loss-making.

Activity in the Oil and Gas sector (including regulatory)


RBC: Ukraine's gas imports from Russia go up 5-fold

http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20100203114820.shtml

      RBC, 03.02.2010, Kiev 11:48:20.Ukraine imported 2.7bn cubic meters of natural gas worth $780m from Russia in January 2010, Ukrainian Fuel and Energy Minister Yury Prodan told journalists today after the signing of a loan agreement with the World Bank. He assured reporters that "Ukraine would pay for the gas on time." The deadline for the payment is February 5.

      Meanwhile, the ministry's press secretary Fent Di announced that the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine reached 10.2bn cubic meters in January 2010, showing a jump of 2.2 times compared to the same month of the previous year. "We attribute this increase to higher demand for gas in Europe, mainly due to a colder winter," he explained. Similarly, gas consumption in Ukraine shot up 1.6bn cubic meters from January 2009 to 9bn cubic meters. At the same time, gas imports from Russia jumped five times to 2.7bn cubic meters.

      Meanwhile, Ukraine produced 1.8bn cubic meters of gas in January, and another 19.1bn cubic meters remain in the country's underground storage facilities.



The Moscow Times: Oil Output Swells 2.8% As Rosneft Pumps More


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/oil-output-swells-28-as-rosneft-pumps-more/398890.html
03 February 2010

Bloomberg

Russia boosted crude output 2.8 percent in January from a year earlier, the Energy Ministry said Tuesday, after Rosneft ramped up production at Vankor, the country’s largest new oil development.

Production grew to 10.04 million barrels a day, the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit said in an e-mailed statement. Oil output was down slightly from December, when the country produced 10.05 million barrels a day.

Producers exported 4.78 million barrels of oil a day to countries outside the former Soviet Union, a decline of 0.5 percent from a year earlier and 1.4 percent from December. Total exports were 5.22 million barrels a day, excluding supplies to Belarus, for which CDU-TEK said it didn’t have data.

Vankor’s output has risen to 220,000 barrels a day in January since its August start. Rosneft, the country’s largest oil producer, expects output at the field to reach 500,000 barrels a day by 2014, the equivalent of the world’s fifth-largest oil-producing field currently.

Rosneft produced a total of 2.43 million barrels a day, an increase of 6.2 percent from a year earlier, while a decline of 0.2 percent from December.

LUKoil, the country's second largest oil producer, pumped 1.84 million barrels of crude a day last month, little changed from a year ago and an increase of 1.3 percent from December.

LUKoil’s plans to boost oil output shifted abroad to Iraq where it and partner Statoil signed a contract for the West Qurna-2 field on Jan. 31. Investment in the project may reach $30 billion, LUKoil chief executive Vagit Alekperov told Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, according to the government web site. The field may produce 95 million tons of oil a year, about the level of LUKoil’s annual output.

TNK-BP boosted output at new projects in eastern Siberia and the Uvat region, balancing declines at older fields. The company pumped 1.42 million barrels a day, an increase of 3.8 percent from the previous year and little changed on the month.

The ExxonMobil-led Sakhalin-1 project produced 142,000 barrels a day, down 26 percent from a year earlier and 5.7 percent from December, before new deposits come on line. Exxon’s partners are Rosneft, ONGC Videsh, and Japan’s Sakhalin Oil & Gas Development.

Surgutneftegaz reduced output to 1.17 million barrels a day, a decline of 1.7 percent from December. That extended the Surgut-based company’s 3.3 percent decline for the full year of 2009, as its Talakan field in eastern Siberia failed to compensate for declines at the company’s west Siberia unit.

Bashneft, which billionaire Vladimir Yevtushenkov’s Sistema bought control of last year, raised output 14 percent from a year earlier to 270,000 barrels a day. That was a 4.7 increase from December.

Natural gas output increased 2.3 percent compared with December to 63.95 billion cubic meters. Gazprom produced 50.8 billion cubic meters of the fuel in January, the ministry’s unit said.



UralSib: NOVATEK: New domestic gas sales leader emerges

http://www.businessneweurope.eu/dispatch_text10927

UralSib
February 3, 2010

Another gas delivery contract signed. NOVATEK (NOTK RX - Buy) has signed a contract with UGMK (Urals Metals & Mining Company), Russia's second-largest copper producer, located in the Sverdlovsk region, for 600-650 mcm of gas in 2010, Kommersant reported today. UGMK's gas was previously supplied by ITERA. The value of the contract exceeds RUB1 bln ($33 mln), which is about 2% of UGMK and 3.2% of ITERA's annual sales.

Elbowing Gazprom, but sill positive. An anonymous source said that NOVATEK had agreed with Gazprom on the transportation of roughly 500 mcm of gas for UGMK through Gazprom's pipeline. NOVATEK's portfolio for 2010 also includes contracts with OGK-1 and Inter RAO to supply a respective 56 bcm and 7.5 bcm of gas. The new contracts are in line with NOVATEK's strategy of marketing gas to the best clients in Russia. We also highlight NOVATEK's political power to gain lucrative contracts, sometimes elbowing past Gazprom (OGK-1) or, as with this contract, ITERA.

Continuous access to new final consumers. During the presentation of its 3Q09 IFRS results, NOVATEK said that it had shifted from gas sales in European Russia to Siberia and Urals-region clients. NOVATEK improved its margins by saving on transportation costs due to the shorter distances to its new client base, disregarding certain price premiums it had when selling gas to clients in European Russia. The new contracts will continue to improve NOVATEK's efficiency, and we reiterate our Buy recommendation and target price of $6.6/share.

VTB Capital: NOVATEK expects 2010 production growth to exceed 6% YoY

http://www.businessneweurope.eu/dispatch_text10927

VTB Capital


February 3, 2010

very likely, considering expanded customers base - in line with our forecasts

news: According to Novatek CEO Leonid Mikhelson, the company expects gas production to increase more this year than in 2009, while liquids production will be in line with 2009 growth. He also mentioned that the company would seek partners among international producers (such as Royal Dutch Shell, Total and Exxon Mobil) to develop the South Tambey field on the Yamal peninsula. On a separate note, Kommersant speculates that NOVATEK has signed one more agreement for 2010 to supply around 600mmcm of gas to UGMK.

our view: In 2009, NOVATEK produced 30.9bcm of gas (up 6.2% YoY). According to our model, the company will produce 33.2bcm of gas in 2010, increasing its gas production 7.6% YoY. Thus, the company's guidance is in line with our expectations. While NOVATEK's contract with Itera to supply 7bcm of gas annually came to an end in December 2009, the company has signed other contracts with OGK 1 and Inter RAO to supply 56bcm and 7.5bcm, respectively, during 2010-15. Moreover, a new contract with UGMK would provide the company with an additional 600mmcm of demand. In January 2010, NOVATEK already produced 3.5bcm of gas (up 22% YoY). We are reiterating our Buy rating on NOVATEK. Lev Snykov


Your Industry News: Rosneft discovered a new field in East Siberia


http://www.yourindustrynews.com/rosneft+discovered+a+new+field+in+east+siberia_45141.html

Tuesday, Feb 02, 2010


Rosneft geologists discovered a large new oilfield within Mogdinsky and East Sugdinsky license areas in Katangsky District of Irkutsk Region (East Siberia). Rosneft obtained the licenses for both plots through the auction in 2006.

The field was named after Nikolay Savostyanov, who in 1976 – 1990 was in charge of the Principal Division for Oilfield and Site Geophysics (Glavneftegeophysica) of the USSR Ministry of Oil Industry, and in 1993 - 1997 – of Rosneft’s Department for Geophysical Operations.

The field’s primary recoverable reserves under С1+С2 categories exceed 160 million tons, being sufficient to take the field as the strategic one. The deposit is in complicated geological setting with a number of other properties that indicate the need for further exploration in order to work out the best development method.

The field is located approximately 80 km from Verkhnechonskoye Oil & Condensate Field, where Rosneft takes part in the development, and 150 km from East Siberia – Pacific Ocean trunk pipeline. Exploration in the area started in the 1980-s; however, the first commercial oil was recovered only in 2009 as a result of exploration drilling.

In 2010 the Company intends to continue exploration at the license blocks of Irkutsk Region, particularly to run 2D seismic of 2930 km and resistivity survey of 3700 km. Drilling of four new wells is also scheduled.

In general, Rosneft performs exploration in East Siberia (Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk Regions) in 26 license areas with the attributed available resources of over 2.5 billion tons of oil equivalent. Particularly for 2010 it is planned to run 5325 line km of 2D seismic, 400 sq. km of 3D and to drill 12 exploration wells.



VTB Capital: Rosneft might build refinery in Chechnya

http://www.businessneweurope.eu/dispatch_text10927

VTB Capital


February 3, 2010

with annual capacity of 1mmtn - small project, not significant for the company

news: Rosneft President Sergei Bogdanchikov has said that the company plans to build a refinery in Chechnya with an annual capacity of 1mmtn. Construction is slated to begin in 2011, with the first commercial production to start in 2013. According to Kommersant, the project has already been approved by the Board of Directors. The paper speculates that the construction costs might amount to USD 400mn.

our view: The total primary capacity of Rosneft's refineries is 394mmbbl, and constructing the new refinery in Chechnya would add 1.9% of refining capacity. Based on our estimates, the cost of construction might increase the company's 2011-13 capex 1.4%. Thus, the project, if implemented, would not be significant for the company. Lev Snykov


The Moscow Times: EN+ May Pull Out of Oil


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/en-may-pull-out-of-oil/398875.html
03 February 2010

EN+ may exit the oil industry after failing to win state approval to buy Russneft, chief executive Vladislav Soloviyev said.

The company may sell its remaining oil asset, United Oil Group, should it receive an offer, Soloviyev said, Vedomosti reported Tuesday.

Waz.eurobserver: Bulgaria reviews energy projects, tests Russia's nerve


http://waz.euobserver.com/?aid=29275

VESSELIN ZHELEV

15.01.2010 @ 10:00 CET

Bulgaria's new government has started a risky game with former mentor Russia, urging it to review multi-billion-euro energy projects painstakingly agreed with its Socialist-led predecessor and widely seen as a vehicle of Russian influence on the Balkans.

Invoking the impact from the global economic crisis, Prime Minister Boiko Borisov wants to re-assess a number of projects that include a second nuclear power plant in the country, the South Stream gas pipeline running from the Black Sea to Serbia, Hungary and Italy, and an oil conduit linking the Bulgarian Black sea port of Burgas with Greece's Alexandroupolis on the Aegean.

The United States has encouraged Sofia to proceed with the revision. However, it is likely to test the patience of Moscow, which has worked for years to get the projects underway.

Bulgaria, once the most loyal Soviet ally, has gradually broken loose from Russia's grip over the past couple of decades, joining both Nato and the EU.

It still remains 100 percent dependent on Russian supplies of natural gas, oil and nuclear fuel. Bulgaria's only nuclear power plant is equipped with Russian-designed reactors and relies entirely on Russia to permanently store and recycle its exhausted fuel rods.

Bulgaria along with Slovakia were the EU countries that suffered the most when Russia cut its gas exports to Europe in January 2009.

The Socialist-led government had signed onto the projects arguing they would make Bulgaria "the energy centre of the Balkans." The country used to be the top regional electricity exporter until it had to permanently close four of a total of six units in its only nuclear power plant in Kozlodui as a condition of joining the EU in January 2007. The EU said the Soviet-designed units posed a safety risk.

The previous government had agreed to Russia's Atomexportstroy building a second nuclear power plant with a capacity of 2,000 megawatts near the Danube port of Belene, 250 kilometers northeast of Sofia. It said the project would cost €5 billion and was considering a Russian loan to finance the project.

Mr Borisov froze it, saying it would cost twice as much with the necessary infrastructure and auxiliary facilities. Meanwhile, German energy group RWE, which was foreseen as a subcontractor in the scheme, has pulled out as the government made it clear funding was a problem. In early December, Bulgaria's minister of industry and energy, Traicho Traikov, urged Russia to propose a "quality investor" in order for the project to be resumed.

Mr Traikov also said the agreement concerning South Stream needs to be thoroughly re-negotiated after the Russians proposed to increase the capacity of the pipe from 31 billion cubic metres per annum to 63 billion per year.

It is intended to sidestep Ukraine, with which Russia has recurring gas disputes, and run under the Black Sea, across Bulgaria and Serbia and then branch to Hungary and under the Adriatic to Italy.

It is seen as competing with the EU's Nabucco project to link the Caspian region with central Europe via Turkey and the Balkans. While Bulgaria has been hesitating, France's energy supplier EDF and Italy's Enel have signed accords to acquire stakes in South Stream.

Bulgaria has ordered a new environmental impact assessment of the Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline, concerned about potential pollution of the southern Black Sea coast, a lucrative tourist area. The assessment will take another 18 months, after more than a decade of negotiations on last year's Bulgarian-Greek-Russian accord to build the pipe.

The 285-kilometre pipeline is projected to convey between 35 million and 50 million tonnes of Russian crude directly from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, circumventing the congested Bosphorus Strait in Turkey.

"The benefits of this project are not great," Mr Traikov said. "The problem is whether they are great enough to justify running environmental risks."



Mr Traikov is scheduled to present his country's energy plans to his EU colleagues in Seville, Spain, this weekend.

Gazprom



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