***Peak Oil/Inherency*** Dependence Increasing

***Peak Oil/Inherency***

Dependence Increasing

Ext- oil dependence increasing

Oil isn’t going quietly into the night. We need to contain our addiction, even if we can’t end it. A recent ExxonMobil study projects that the number of light-duty vehicles worldwide will grow 50 percent to 1.2 billion by 2030, with two fifths of the increase in China. Most will use gasoline. Competition for global oil supplies will intensify. We cannot escape that reality, even if we ignore it.

Now key – globalization means consumption’s spinning out of control

NSSO, ‘7 – National Security Space Office [10/10/07, “Space-Based Solar Power as an Opportunity for Strategic Security: Report to the Director, National Security Space office Interim Assessment Release 0.1,” http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/library/final-sbsp-interim-assessment-release-01.pdf, DS]
Since the “Fresh Look” Study much has changed. The events of 9/11 dramatically altered the world strategic security environment. Major energy producing areas of the world are perceived as being unstable, and the risks of dependence on unstable areas of the world for energy supplies are increasingly less acceptable to both citizens and policymakers. The rising demand of the developing world—in particular the burgeoning economies of China and India—are increasing energy competition. Growing concern over long‐term climate change has become a mainstream issue. Globalization, begun at the end of the last century has created an extremely rapid and accelerating pace of change in the technological, informational, and business sectors. These changes are being driven by the aggregate decisions of billions of people, millions of companies, thousands of governments, and huge international markets that cross the borders of over a hundred countries. The ability to stop, or even slow, this change is beyond the ability of any single nation, company, or organization. The DoD, as the nation’s largest institutional consumer of technology and energy, has determined that long‐term energy security is now a forefront issue. The early developments of the 21st Century have created conditions that merit that this nation takes a relook of SBSP.

High Prices/Shocks Inevitable

Oil pipelines vulnerable to terrorist attack – attacks cause huge price spikes and supply shocks

Wald et al 9 (General Charles F Wald, Former Deputy Commander, Headquarters U.S. European Command, General Gordon R. Sullivan, Former Chief of Staff, U.S. Army, and Former Chairman of the CNA MAB, Vice Admiral Richard H. Truly, Former NASA Administrator, Shuttle Astronaut and the first Commander of the Naval Space Command, “Powering America’s Defense,” May 2009. )

The MEND is but one example of a group operating in an unstable region that targets oil and its infrastructure for its strategic, political, military, and economic consequences. By 2007 in Iraq, in comparison to pre-2003 levels, effects from the war and constant harassment of the oil infrastructure by insurgent groups and criminal smuggling elements reduced oil production capacity in the northern fields by an estimated 700,000 barrels per day [31]. In 2006, al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula carried out a suicide bombing against the Abqaiq oil production facility in Saudi Arabia, which handles about two-thirds of the country’s oil production [32]. Fortunately, due largely to the intense focus of the Saudis on hardening their processing facilities (to which they devote billions of dollars each year), the attack was suppressed before the bombers could penetrate the second level of security gates. However, both the Saudi level of protection and al Qaeda’s selection of the oil infrastructure as a target signify the strategic and economic value of such facilities. The effects of these attacks have been regional, and none resulted in a catastrophic disruption in the flow of oil. However, these attacks have demonstrated the vulnerability of oil infrastructure to attack; a series of well-coordinated attacks on oil production and distribution facilities could have serious negative consequences on the global economy. Even these small-scale and mostly unsuccessful attacks have sent price surges through the world oil market.

High oil prices and supply shocks are inevitable – only a risk plan solves

NSSO, ‘7 – National Security Space Office [10/10/07, “Space-Based Solar Power as an Opportunity for Strategic Security: Report to the Director, National Security Space office Interim Assessment Release 0.1,” http://www.nss.org/settlement/ssp/library/final-sbsp-interim-assessment-release-01.pdf, DS]
Energy Concerns, Prices and Costs Oil prices have increased from less than $15US per barrel during 1999 to over $80 US per barrel today (2007). The higher oil prices go, the more viable becomes the business case for Scenario 2 ‐ SBSP as an alternative source of energy. Price though is not the only concern. The stability and security of the flow of oil into the United States is also very important. While Canada is America’s largest supplier, much of the rest of her imported oil comes from the unstable regions of the Middle East or unstable countries such as Nigeria or unfriendly ones such as Venezuela. Energy security and continued supply are serious concerns. Oil supplies may not run out in our lifetimes but we must plan for future generations. Supplies are being consumed at a higher rate than new reserves are being discovered. Demand has dramatically increased from emerging countries such as China and India, along with the slow steady increases from Western economies. Decreasing supply or increasing demand can each lead to higher prices. With both forces acting together, higher prices are expected to continue and accelerate. Coal and natural gas, which are primarily used for the generation of electricity, have also seen price increases in recent years though not to the degree that oil has increased. Since the source of these is primarily domestic, it is not subject to the same uncertainty premium that oil currently carries. Coal‐based electricity, using current emission controls, provides electricity at about 5 cents per kWh (busbar cost). The primary challenge to this is global warming, which may force new plants (and retrofits at existing plants) to capture CO2 for sequestration. Carbon capture and sequestration technologies and systems are expected to add at least a few cents per kWh.

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