Sbsp affirmative- arl lab- ndi 2011



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Peak Oil = true



Peak oil true- we’ve already seen the indicators- high prices and declining production


Deffeyes 08 (Kenneth S., a geologist and Emeritus Professor at Princeton University, “Hubbert's peak: the impending world oil shortage”, ix-x, Google Books) OP
Welcome lo the world beyond Hubbert's peak. On page 158 of the book in your hand, I made the prediction that world oil production would peak in the year 2005. What happened next? In 2005, oil production stopped growing, and the price of crude oil shot upward from $45 per barrel to $ 140 per barrel. We hit "peak oil"—also called "Hubbert's peak"—a geological limitation to the oil supply in the ground. With no additional supplies, a bidding war began in 2005 over the remaining oil in the ground. The urge to say, "I told you so," is too much to resist. Not only are the decline in oil production and subsequent rise of oil prices going to happen, as 1 maintained in this book, but for all practical purposes, they already have happened. The consequences of high oil prices are now rippling through the economy. Food prices are up sharply because modern agriculture is an energy-intensive business and because agricultural capacity is being shunted into biofuel production. Many automobile manufacturers are suffering because their profitable SUVs and light trucks are not selling. By my count, at least seven passenger airlines have departed to that great airport in the sky. And, after paying for gasoline and food, many consumers don't have enough money left over to make their mortgage payments. We all learned in Econ 101 that an increase in price will generate an increase in supply. This is simply the law of supply and demand at work. And, as economists predicted, an increase in supply did happen. Since 2005, the price of oil has tripled, and world crude oil production has increased by a factor of 1.005- Obviously, the effect of the price increase was nowhere near as strong as expected. What is going on when prices triple and there is only a tiny increase in production? 1 interpret it as a bidding war. When geologic constraints stopped the growth of crude oil production, consumers around the world began outbidding one another for the remaining oil supply.

Peak oil theory true- accepted by geologists


Verbruggen 10 (Aviel, Professor at the University of. Antwerp (Blegium) in Environmental and Energy Technology and Economics, “Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy”, October, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421510003514#implicit0) OP
Peak oil is developed and supported most by geologists, e.g. Hubbert (1956), Campbell (1994, 2006), Campbell and Laherrere (1998), Bentley (2002) and Hirsch (2007). Oil deposits are nonrenewable and fixed, making stocks decrease with consumption. Simmons (2008) derives his pessimistic view from analyzing financial flows in the oil exploration and exploitation business. Peak oil authors argue that many estimates of oil reserves and resources are non-reliable and overestimated. Estimates are generated by producing countries themselves. Some countries may manipulate estimates for own gain, in particular OPEC countries declaring upward-biased reserves because OPEC assigns production quota along the size of its members’ oil reserves. Suspect reserves stay constant year after year (i.e. new discoveries exactly match production) or increase suddenly by large numbers (Campbell, 1994). Another argument is the decreasing discovery rate. The largest fields are found first because they are ‘too big to miss’. The large fields are aging and fewer are discovered, while production mirrors discovery with a time-lag. Campbell (2006) states that in 1981 the world started to consume more oil than it found and that the gap between discovery and production is widening. Based on historical discoveries and stochastic simulation of future discoveries, Shell finds a normal distribution for new discoveries of regular conventional oil when smoothed for a 20-year moving average (Tsoskounoglou et al., 2008: p. 3800). The year 2005 knew the lowest oil discovery level ever and in 2008, the world consumed 2–3 barrels (Tsoskounoglou et al., 2008: p. 3800) or even 4–5 barrels (Hall et al., 2008: p. 113) for every new discovered oil barrel. Peak oil authors state that the largest and most accessible sedimentary areas have already been explored extensively. Therefore, future discoveries will likely occur in smaller quantities and in more remote areas, and production will be more difficult and costly. The rate of worldwide oil discovery has been decreasing and some areas have failed to yield any recoverable oil while once thought to possess significant oil potential (Craig et al., 2001: pp. 168–169).

Prefer our scientific evidence to their economists- they only consider the economic aspect Verbruggen 10 (Aviel, Professor at the University of. Antwerp (Blegium) in Environmental and Energy Technology and Economics, “Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy”, October, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421510003514#implicit0) OP



Critical visions on peak oil are stated mostly by economists. They consider reserves predominantly an economic concept, e.g. Adelman (1990, 1993), Odell (1992), Lynch (1999), Watkins (2006) and Maugeri (2004, 2006). ‘‘Oil reserves are the amount of oil that is minable at today’s prices using existing technology’’. The economist vision rather ignores critical geological features of oil stocks (Hallock et al., 2004). Reserves and resources are no fixed numbers but constitute a dynamic flux depending on prices and technology.


Peak Oil theory is true Hall et al 8 (Charles A.S., ESF Foundation Distinguished Professor at State University of New York in the College of Environmental Science & Forestry, “Peak Oil, EROI, Investments and the Economy in an Uncertain Future”, http://www.springerlink.com/content/q31418v301002426/) OP



Peak oil, that is the time at which an oil field, a nation or the entire world reaches its maximum oil production and then declines, is not some abstract issue debated by theoretical scientists or worried citizens but an actuality that occurred in the United States in 1970 and in some 60 (of 80) other oil-producing nations since (Hubbert 1974, Strahan 2007, Energyfiles 2007). Sev- eral prominent geologists have suggested that it may have occurred already for the world, although that is not clear yet (e.g. Deffeyes 2005, see EIA 2007, IEA 2007). With global demand showing no sign of abating at some time it will not be possi- ble to continue to increase petroleum supplies, especially oil globally and natural gas in North America, or even to maintain current levels of supply, regardless of technology or price. At this point we will enter the second half of the age of oil (Campbell 2005). The first half was one of year by year growth, the second half will be of continued importance but year by year decline in supply, with possibly an “undulating plateau” at the top and some help from still-abundant natural gas outside North America separating the two halves and buffering the impact somewhat for a decade or so. We are of the opinion that it will not be possible to fill in the growing gap between supply and demand of conventional oil with e.g. liquid biomass alter- natives on the scale required (Hall et al. in review), and even were that possible that the investments and time required to do so would mean that we needed to get started some decades ago (Hirsch et al. 2005). When the decline in global oil production begins we will see the “end of cheap oil” and a very different economic climate.

Peak oil by 2015- government denial now clarified


Hodge ’11 (Nick, Editor for Energy and Capital. “2015: End of the Oil Age”. http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/2015-end-of-the-oil-age/1609. July 1st, 2011) AP
If you're insolent enough to seek the truth, you might just come out ahead in this mess. For years, global governments have built up a wall of deceit to shelter the public from the reality of the end of oil. And for years, scientists and institutions not beholden to shareholders or constituents have tried to sound the alarm with muted results. But several events in the past few months have proven the most powerful governments in the world have known about Peak Oil for years. They've been intentionally downplaying it. And they have no idea what to do about it... It's not alarmist to say or think the world is running out of oil. It's actually one of the most prudent things I can think of. Behind the Lies As recently as 2009, the United Kingdom's official position was that “global oil (and gas) reserves are sufficient to sustain economic growth for the foreseeable future”; also that existing policies put it “in a good position to deal with the longer-term challenge of declining oil reserves.” The government consistently cited the International Energy Agency's forecast that Peak Oil wouldn't occur until 2030, if at all. Now, after being repeatedly threatened under the Freedom of Information Act, the release of a years-old report shows the UK government has known about imminent Peak Oil and its consequences. We now know the Labour Government spent six months evaluating the likely impacts of Peak Oil back in 2007. (You can see that research in a PowerPoint recently released by the government.) As a result of that research, the government was warned of “significant negative economic consequences”, should Peak Oil occur in the short term. The report also noted it was impossible to forecast the exact moment when supply would peak — but there would be global consequences, including “civil unrest”, when it did. In a worst-case scenario, the peak would happen before 2015. The report's conclusion stated it is “clear” that: Existing fields are maturing; The rate of investment in new and existing production is being slowed down by bottlenecks, the economic downturn, and financial crisis; and Alternative technologies to oil will take a long time to develop and deploy at scale. Again, the UK government has had this report for years and has been denying its conclusions the entire time. Coming to Jesus Remember, UK officials were only echoing the International Energy Agency in saying Peak Oil could never happen before 2030. That would be fine — except for the fact the IEA changed its stance in late 2008. After conducting the first comprehensive study of the annual decline in output from the world's 800 largest oil fields, the IEA mentioned the word “peak” for the first time in its World Energy Outlook. It also raised the annual decline rate from 3.7% to 6.7% — almost double the previous rate at which it said oil fields were depleting. After that report was published, IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol had this to say: In terms of non-OPEC, we are expecting that in three, four years' time the production of conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to decline... In terms of the global picture, assuming that OPEC will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau as well... I think time is not on our side here. He must've been lying then, too — or at least severely distorting the truth. Because ol' Fatih dropped another bombshell two months ago during a television interview: When we look at the oil markets the news is not very bright. We think that the crude oil production has already peaked in 2006. The existing fields are declining sharply in North sea, in United States, in Gulf of Mexico. Just to stay where we are today we have to find four new Saudi Arabia's, this is a tall order. (transcript here) Yep. In late April, the head of the IEA said crude oil production peaked five years ago. No big deal — not newsworthy or anything. He said it on a Thursday and we killed bin Laden two days later, so the clip conveniently didn't make it into the news cycle... But you know it now. And you can use this truth for personal gain while the herd continues to obliviously graze. Spreading the Word So the IEA and the UK government are now out of the closet when it comes to Peak Oil. Anyone else want to step up and admit Peak Oil is real, and will happen sooner rather than later? I promise, the punishment will be less harsh if you confess now. There are a few brave souls... The UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security — composed of Yahoo!, Virgin, and others — warned in a report last year that serious oil shortages could occur by 2015. The U.S. military has warned surplus oil capacity could disappear within two years with serious shortages by 2015. Sweden (and Uppsala University physics professor Kjell Aleklett, in particular) still isn't satisfied with the IEA's partial admission of the peak. The Swedish Energy Agency funded its own Peak Oil research. After what he found, Aleklett calls the IEA's World Energy Outlook a “political document” meant only to aid geopolitics for oil-consuming countries with a vested interest in low prices. (He meant the United States, if you didn't discern that bit on your own.) According to Aleklett and his team, oil output in 2030 is likely to be closer to 75 million barrels per day instead of the IEA's more optimistic forecast of 105 mbd. Organized societies would be reduced to chaos if that happened, which is exactly why governments have been denying it so long. After calling the IEA's forecast and methodology “dubious”, Aleklett added: “I am a scientist, not an economist or a politician. I believe in the facts and if someone can prove me wrong I will happily change my mind.” The conclusion of the Peak Oil report being covered up in the UK offered this: While alternative technologies could be pulled through by the combination of economics and government policies, the lead-times for any real impact on oil demand are long. Globally, in response to a peak, some countries may adopt short-term, partial solutions such as more coal consumption and high carbon oil production that could result in an increase in global emissions. Coal will be burned in developing nations like India and China as a cheap way to fuel growth. And richer nations will spend increasing amounts of cash on extracting every last bit of oil and gas. That means fracking. That means tar sands. That means deepwater. You're seeing this happen already. Remember what Mr. Birol said: We need to find four new Saudi Arabias merely to remain at today's output levels. As the peak plays out, any remaining oil is going to be valued much higher than today's $95. And while I don't know where four new Saudi Arabias are going to come from, I have seen a report that we'll find at least one. It's actually an extension of the same formation that gave the Saudis their copious amounts of crude, though the deposit is well outside their borders... At over 70 billion barrels, this newly-found oil is open to any company who gets there and sets up shop. And according to everything I read, this could be the largest deposit of easy oil left in the world. Call it like you see it,
Oil production flat since 04- peak oil approaching quickly

Reynolds 10 (Lewis, energy consultant and author of “America the Prisoner: The Implications of Foreign Oil Addiction and a Realistic Plan to End It”, “Seven Dangerous Side Effects of the U.S. Dependency on Foreign Oil”, 8-8-10, http://peakoil.com/production/seven-dangerous-side-effects-of-the-u-s-dependency-on-foreign-oil/) OP



Our fate has long been tied to the oil issue. But now we’re near the threshold at which our addiction will completely break us. We are quickly approaching what is called “peak oil”—the point at which world oil production will reach its maximum point and then begin to decline because of supply limitations. Even the most optimistic projections of peak oil place it around the year 2023. Some would argue that peak oil has already been reached, and world production statistics are certainly not at odds with that conclusion. World oil production has been essentially flat since 2004. Only the temporary abatement of pressure on demand growth caused by the global recession has kept prices from skyrocketing. With no viable alternative in place, decreasing supply and increasing prices will culminate in a predicament where we the people still need oil to go about the business of daily life—but can no longer afford it.


Now is key- resources will be depleted Alternative Heating 11 (“The Consequences of Oil Stocks Depletion”, 1-27-11, http://www.alternative-heating.com/oil-stocks.html) OP


Any way you look at it, the depletion of oil stocks has permanent negative effects on society as a whole worldwide. The United States is the number one consumer of oil in the world, with China following closely behind, and already we are starting to see the lasting effects of dependence upon oil production and oil stocks. Prices of oil products like heating oil are shooting through the roof, especially gas. However, the United States is not the only country at fault for the rising value and falling supply of oil. Global growth has led to a peak usage of oil throughout the world. Unless something is done soon to replace oil as a major source of energy, this resource will be depleted, and pocketbooks will begin to feel the pain as the situation worsens.



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