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National efforts





  1. Canada is currently upgrading its Lockheed CP-140 Aurora aircraft, a variant of the Lockheed P-3 Orion. It is designed for maritime surveillance, reconnaissance, and search and rescue. The upgrade of Canada’s four Auroras costs around CAD550 million, extending their lifespan until 2030.




  1. After some delays, Boeing began with a mid-life upgrade of France’s four E-3F AWACS in 2013. The total cost of the modernisation amounts to USD466 million. Two of the upgraded E-3Fs have already been delivered. In terms of medium-altitude long-endurance UAVs, France decided in April 2016 to buy 14 Sagem Patroller UAVs for the French Army. They will replace 20 Sagem Sperwer UAVs which have served as an interim solution since 2004. Cost estimates of EUR300 million have been reported. First delivery is expected in 2018. France also remains committed to acquiring 12 General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper UAVs in the period from 2014 to 2019. Three of them are already in service, with a further delivery of three Reapers expected in 2016. Costs are estimated to be around EUR670 million. Of the 22 long-range maritime patrol aircraft of the French Navy, the Breguet Atlantique 2, 15 will be upgraded for at least EUR400 million, ensuring that they can fly until 2032. The first modernised aircraft is planned to be delivered in 2019. In March 2016, the French Navy also received its eight and last Falcon 50 Marine Surveillance aircraft.




  1. In 2013, Germany cancelled the planned acquisition of five Northrop Grumman Euro Hawks, derived from the RQ-4 Global Hawks. The aim was to fill a signals intelligence gap, which was the result of the retirement of its five Breguet Br.1150 Atlantique aircraft in 2010. The Ministry of Defence has already put EUR600 million into the programme. The German Armed Forces are aiming to recapitalise some of the money spent, especially concerning the sensor payload. Payload testing has thus resumed on the Euro Hawk in 2016. Future options include integration of the payload into the Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton, the US Navy version of the Global Hawk; the NATO AGS versions of the Global Hawk; or into a business jet aircraft. To bridge the time until a new European medium-altitude long-endurance UAV becomes available by 2025 (see below), the German Armed Forces plan to lease three to five IAI Heron TP aircraft for about EUR600 million, starting in 2018. The Heron TPs will be leased in an unarmed version, but the German government has not ruled out that they could be armed at a later stage. Germany has also embarked on a modernisation of the Navy’s eight Lockheed AP-3C Orion aircraft. The programme will run until 2023 and will extend their lifetime to 2035. Total costs will amount to more than EUR570 million.




  1. Greece is modernising its version of the Orion maritime surveillance aircraft, the P-3B, to extend its lifespan and enhance functionality. The programme was officially launched in mid-2016 and is slated to cost USD142 million.




  1. Italy is buying two Gulfstream G550 Conformal Airborne Early Warning aircraft for a total of USD750 million to conduct airborne early warning and electronic communications intelligence. The first aircraft is currently being outfitted for delivery. The Italian Air Force is also procuring three unmanned Piaggio Aerospace P.1HH Hammerhead UAV systems, based on Piaggio's P180 business jet, to fill the requirement for a medium-altitude, long-endurance UAV. In late 2015, Italy has also gained the long-sought approval of the US State Department to arm its fleet of Reapers.




  1. The Netherlands joins France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States as Reaper users. The country has ordered four Reapers, for total costs of about EUR300 million. Full operational capability should be achieved by 2017.




  1. Poland has established a dedicated UAV airbase, as it runs several programmes to significantly expand its airborne ISR capabilities. In total, the Polish military aims to acquire some 350 UAVs by 2019. For example, to fill the medium-altitude high-endurance requirement under the Zefir programme, Poland’s Ministry of Defence is currently considering Reapers, the General Atomics MQ‑1C Gray Eagle, and the Elbit Hermes 900. Under the Gryf programme, Poland plans to acquire 12 tactical UAVs by 2022 from a Polish company working with international partners. WB Electronics and Thales have put forward the Watchkeeper UAV, and the Polish Armament Group and Elbit the Hermes 450.




  1. Spain has also ordered four Reapers, for total costs of about EUR170 million. Full operational capability should be achieved by 2020. Together with the other Allies employing Reapers, Spain is in discussions on whether to create a joint training unit.




  1. Turkey is buying four Boeing B-737 AWACS aircraft for a total of USD1 billion, with the last aircraft currently being tested before delivery. Turkey has several ambitious unmanned programmes underway as well. The Turkish Aerospace Anka UAV is a medium-altitude long-endurance system for reconnaissance, target detection/identification and intelligence missions with its electro-optical/infrared and search and rescue payloads. An Anka UAV had its first mission maiden flight in February 2016. The Baykar/Kale Kalip Bayraktar UAV is another medium-altitude long-endurance system for tactical reconnaissance and surveillance. The Bayraktar slated for delivery to the Turkish Armed Forces will not be armed, but the company is currently testing the Bayraktar with mini smart ammunition.




  1. In the wake of the Strategic Defence and Security Review of November 2015, the United Kingdom has decided to invest heavily into enhancing its airborne ISR capabilities. The UK is still in the process of acquiring three Boeing RC-135W Rivet Joint Airseekers, for a total cost of around GBP650 million. Two aircraft have been delivered, and the third one is slated for delivery by the end of 2017. Two Airbus Zephyr high-altitude UAVs will be purchased for operational trials. The solar-powered Zephyr is designed to operate for up to 45 days at a time at altitudes of up to 70,000 feet (21km) so as to remain clear of the weather and commercial air traffic. The Zephyr could fill a gap between aircraft and satellite capabilities. In terms of maritime surveillance aircraft, the UK has signed a contract for nine Boeing P-8A Poseidon aircraft. Costs are estimated at GBP3 billion over the next decade. The first arrival is expected in the 2019/2020 timeframe. In terms of medium-altitude long-endurance UAVs, the UK will buy 20 General Atomics Certifiable Predator B Protector UAVs for a total of GBP415 million to replace ten Reaper UAVs in a programme running until 2023.




  1. The United States continues to build up its already considerable airborne ISR fleet. For example, in 2016 the Air Force will receive 29 new Reapers; the Army will have an additional 17 Gray Eagles available; and the Navy is set to obtain 3 Tritons. Beyond 2016, more of these and similar platforms will follow. For example, over 100 Poseidon aircraft are planned to be commissioned in total. In terms of strategic ISR, the Lockheed U-2 Dragon Lady, a high-altitude ISR aircraft, will be retired by 2019. The Air Force is working on integrating U-2 technology into Global Hawks to fill some of the missions carried out by the U-2. Lockheed Martin’s Skunkworks is working on an optionally manned tactical reconnaissance aircraft, called the TR-X, to potentially fill the U-2/Global Hawk requirements after 2025. The Air Force is examining how the capabilities of the ageing Boeing E-8 Joint Surveillance and Target Attack Radar System (JSTARS) aircraft can be recapitalised. For a start, the Air Force is studying how long the E-8 can continue to fly, with results forthcoming in March 2017. Three teams of defence companies are currently contracted to propose early ideas on where JSTARS capability could migrate: Northrop Grumman, L-3, and Gulfstream are working on a solution based on the G550 business jet; Lockheed Martin and Bombardier on a Global 6000 business jet solution; and Boeing on a B-737-700 commercial airliner offer. Experts agree that an active electronically scanned array will have to replace the passive radars onboard the E-8. Despite these efforts, critical voices, especially in Congress, have already pointed to a looming shortfall by 2025. The US Army also runs the Enhanced Medium Altitude Reconnaissance and Surveillance System (EMARSS) programme. The Army plans to field 12 aircraft that live up to the new EMARSS standard, with an option to acquire 20 additional aircraft. In June 2016, L-3 conducted a maiden flight of a Beechcraft King Air 350ER, which will be converted to the EMARSS standard. The Navy has recently decided to transform the controversial Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike effort into a programme to develop a Carrier Based Aerial Refueling System with ISR capabilities. From 2017 to 2021, the Navy plans to invest USD2 billion into this effort.



  1. European COOPERATION





  1. Defence analysts argue that European states are 10 to 15 years behind when it comes to the abilitity of its defence industrial base to develop large UAVs. That said, European defence companies have engaged in worthwhile research and development efforts with such systems as the BAE Taranis, Dassault nEUROn, EADS Barracuda, and EADS Talarion. Over the last two years, two projects to remedy this situation have crystalised.




  1. In November 2015, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain came together to let the European defence industry conduct a study on the development of a European Medium Altitude Long Endurance Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (MALE RPAS). The definition study will last two years and will identify achievable operational capabilities, define system requirements and perform preliminary design activities. If the states decide to move from the study to development and production of a system, first delivery could occur by 2025. The German Ministry of Defence has taken the lead in the study, assuming EUR18.6 million of the study’s cost, with the other three partners contributing EUR13.8 million. Airbus Defence and Space, along with Leonardo-Finmeccanica and Dassault as partners, is reported to be contracted to conduct the study. Airbus has estimated that developing a European MALE RPAS will cost EUR1 billion. Importantly, the project will not be limited to the four partner states, but could open up to other countries in the future.




  1. France and the United Kingdom are conducting a feasibility study called Future Combat Air System, amounting to GBP120 million and set to conclude by the end of 2016. The study will examine the potential joint development of an unmanned combat aircraft system. The project involves BAE Systems, Dassault, Finmeccanica Airborne and Space Systems, Rolls-Royce, Snecma/Safran and Thales. Already, the French and UK governments have committed to a next phase, which will prepare the development of a demonstrator aircraft by 2025 and a potential full operational capability by 2030. Together, France and the UK plan to invest USD2.2 billion into the project.




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