Solar Storms Affirmative – 4 Week Lab [1/3]
AT: No Impact – Past Solar Storms Prove
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AT: No Impact – Past Solar Storms ProveNo solar storm since 1859 has been as powerful as the Carrington event. Insert this graph into the record of the debate. Marusek, Nuclear Physicist and Engineer, 2007 (James A., “Solar Storm Threat Analysis,” http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/SSTA.pdf , accessed 7-23-11, ASR) 
AT: No Impact – Storms Happen ConstantlyThe reason why the 2012 solar storm will be the ‘big one’ is that the CME will coincide with a large tear in the earth’s geomagnetic field due to changing polarity of the sun. Eccleston, Chief Consultant for the Environmental Planning and NEPA Services Corporation and Stuyvenberg, Environmental Project Manager, US Nuclear Regulatory Comission, 2011 (Charles and Andrew, Environmental Quality Management, “The Perfect Electrical Storm? “ Volume 20, Issue 3, Article first published online: 14 MAR 2011, DOI 10.1002/tqem / Spring 2011 / 43 Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/tqem.20288/pdf , accessed 7-2-11, ASR) The Magnetic Tear Cycles of peak solar activity are not necessarily cause for alarm. However, the anticipated solar peak may coincide with the presence of an unusually large “hole” in earth’s geomagnetic field, which helps protect the planet from solar particles. Because solar particles (ions and electrons) are electrically charged, they typically are repelled by earth’s geomagnetic field. But this magnetic field changes over time. NASA’s THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms) spacecraft mission has provided new insight into how earth’s magnetic field operates. It has shown that the geomagnetic field sometimes develops tears or holes that allow charged particles to pass through.6 Moreover, it turns out that earth’s magnetic field is “leaky” by nature. The number of particles that can breach this shield depends in part on how the sun’s magnetic field happens to be oriented. According to Marit Oieroset from the University of California, Berkeley, the THEMIS spacecraft fleet has now demonstrated that “Twenty times more solar particles cross the Earth’s leaky magnetic shield when the sun’s magnetic field is aligned with that of the Earth compared to when the two magnetic fields are oppositely directed.”7 Some astronomers believe that the sun’s magnetic polarity could flip direction in the near future. This could lead to a tear in the geomagnetic field that might allow an enormous solar flare to flood in at exactly the time when it could do the most damage (i.e., when solar activity reaches a maximum). One researcher who has studied the topic has been quoted as saying, “we expect stronger storms in the upcoming solar cycle,” in part because of changes in the direction of the sun’s magnetic field.8 The 2012 solar storm will be equivalent to 100 million hydrogen bombs hitting earth Korea Times, 2010 (“Solar storm equivalent to 100 mil. hydrogen bombs to hit Earth in 2012,” September 1, 2010, Lexis Nexis, accessed 7-23-11, ASR) Meteorologists expect that the Earth will be hit with powerful solar storms equivalent to 100 million hydrogen bombs in 2012 or 2013. The U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has warned that the massive flares seen last month is the sign of powerful solar storms now under formation. It is highly probable that once exposed to the strong solar storm all the power transmission systems on Earth will be paralyzed. NASA has been closely watching the activity of solar storms since 2006. The solar storms erupted in 1859 and 1921 and put all the world into confusion. For example, telecommunication networks were destroyed in widespread areas across the world. General scientific consensus is that the coming "solar maximum" could arrive in 2012 or 2013 in its 11 year cycle. It will be "the most violent in 100 years," says astronomy lecturer and columnist Dave Reneke in Australian Science magazine. 'Smart power grids, GPS navigation, air travel, financial services and emergency radio communications can all be knocked out by intense solar activity.' 'Systems will just not work. The flares change the magnetic field on the Earth and it's rapid, just like a lightning bolt. That's the solar effect," said Richard Fisher, head of NASA's Heliophysics Division. The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) estimates that the solar flares will damage high-tech infrastructure worth $1-2 trillion (1,200-2,400 trillion won) and four to 10 years will be required to restore the structure to its current status. Most experts predict that satellites will be aged 50 years earlier, making GPS useless, when the solar storms hit the Earth. The energy created from the storm is said to be equivalent to the power created when 100 million hydrogen bombs explode simultaneously. A2: NASA FAQ – Solar Storms Won’t OccurThe NASA FAQ is in context of scares that the world will end in 2012 and the Mayan calendar. NASA has an incentive to stop the hype in context to solar storms. NASA Frequently Asked Questions, 2009 (Frequently Asked Questions, “2012: Beginning of the End or Why the World Won't End?” http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html, November 6, accessed 7-22-11, ASR) Remember the Y2K scare? It came and went without much of a whimper because of adequate planning and analysis of the situation. Impressive movie special effects aside, Dec. 21, 2012, won't be the end of the world as we know. It will, however, be another winter solstice. Much like Y2K, 2012 has been analyzed and the science of the end of the Earth thoroughly studied. Contrary to some of the common beliefs out there, the science behind the end of the world quickly unravels when pinned down to the 2012 timeline. Below, NASA Scientists answer several questions that we're frequently asked regarding 2012. Question (Q): Are there any threats to the Earth in 2012? Many Internet websites say the world will end in December 2012. Answer (A): Nothing bad will happen to the Earth in 2012. Our planet has been getting along just fine for more than 4 billion years, and credible scientists worldwide know of no threat associated with 2012. Q: What is the origin of the prediction that the world will end in 2012? A: The story started with claims that Nibiru, a supposed planet discovered by the Sumerians, is headed toward Earth. This catastrophe was initially predicted for May 2003, but when nothing happened the doomsday date was moved forward to December 2012. Then these two fables were linked to the end of one of the cycles in the ancient Mayan calendar at the winter solstice in 2012 -- hence the predicted doomsday date of December 21, 2012. Q: Does the Mayan calendar end in December 2012? A: Just as the calendar you have on your kitchen wall does not cease to exist after December 31, the Mayan calendar does not cease to exist on December 21, 2012. This date is the end of the Mayan long-count period but then -- just as your calendar begins again on January 1 -- another long-count period begins for the Mayan calendar. Q: Could phenomena occur where planets align in a way that impacts Earth? A: There are no planetary alignments in the next few decades, Earth will not cross the galactic plane in 2012, and even if these alignments were to occur, their effects on the Earth would be negligible. Each December the Earth and sun align with the approximate center of the Milky Way Galaxy but that is an annual event of no consequence. "There apparently is a great deal of interest in celestial bodies, and their locations and trajectories at the end of the calendar year 2012. Now, I for one love a good book or movie as much as the next guy. But the stuff flying around through cyberspace, TV and the movies is not based on science. There is even a fake NASA news release out there..." - Don Yeomans, NASA senior research scientist Q: Is there a planet or brown dwarf called Nibiru or Planet X or Eris that is approaching the Earth and threatening our planet with widespread destruction? A: Nibiru and other stories about wayward planets are an Internet hoax. There is no factual basis for these claims. If Nibiru or Planet X were real and headed for an encounter with the Earth in 2012, astronomers would have been tracking it for at least the past decade, and it would be visible by now to the naked eye. Obviously, it does not exist. Eris is real, but it is a dwarf planet similar to Pluto that will remain in the outer solar system; the closest it can come to Earth is about 4 billion miles. Q: What is the polar shift theory? Is it true that the earth’s crust does a 180-degree rotation around the core in a matter of days if not hours? A: A reversal in the rotation of Earth is impossible. There are slow movements of the continents (for example Antarctica was near the equator hundreds of millions of years ago), but that is irrelevant to claims of reversal of the rotational poles. However, many of the disaster websites pull a bait-and-shift to fool people. They claim a relationship between the rotation and the magnetic polarity of Earth, which does change irregularly, with a magnetic reversal taking place every 400,000 years on average. As far as we know, such a magnetic reversal doesn’t cause any harm to life on Earth. A magnetic reversal is very unlikely to happen in the next few millennia, anyway. The Blue Marble: Next GenerationEarth, as seen in the Blue Marble: Next Generation collection of images, showing the color of the planet's surface in high resolution. This image shows South America from September 2004. Q: Is the Earth in danger of being hit by a meteor in 2012? A: The Earth has always been subject to impacts by comets and asteroids, although big hits are very rare. The last big impact was 65 million years ago, and that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs. Today NASA astronomers are carrying out a survey called the Spaceguard Survey to find any large near-Earth asteroids long before they hit. We have already determined that there are no threatening asteroids as large as the one that killed the dinosaurs. All this work is done openly with the discoveries posted every day on the NASA NEO Program Office website, so you can see for yourself that nothing is predicted to hit in 2012. Q: How do NASA scientists feel about claims of pending doomsday? A: For any claims of disaster or dramatic changes in 2012, where is the science? Where is the evidence? There is none, and for all the fictional assertions, whether they are made in books, movies, documentaries or over the Internet, we cannot change that simple fact. There is no credible evidence for any of the assertions made in support of unusual events taking place in December 2012. 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