Space Debris Affirmative



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Space debris increasing now, turning the Kessler syndrome into reality.

Clark 10 (Stuart Clark is a widely read astronomy journalist and holds a first class honours degree and a PhD in astrophysics. He is a Fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society and a former Vice Chair of the Association of British Science Writers. He writes for the Space Agency as senior editor for space science. In addition, he writes articles and news for New Scientist, The Times, BBC Focus and BBC Sky at Night and is a former editor of Astronomy Now magazine. Stuart was the Director of Public Astronomy Education at the University of Hertfordshire., New Scientist, Who you gonna call? Junk busters! 9/11/2010; http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?vid=7&hid=14&sid=7ac5f409-0ed2-4624-9745d27b1812ca59%40sessionmgr12&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=a9h&AN=58665244, rn)

On 10 February 2009 it started to happen. In the first collision between two intact satellites, the defunct Russian craft Kosmos-2251 struck communications satellite Iridium 33 at a speed of 42,100 kilometres per hour. The impact shattered one of Iridium 33's solar panels and sent the satellite into a helpless tumble. Kosmos-2251 was utterly destroyed. The two orbits are now home to clouds of debris that, according to the US military's Space Surveillance Network (SSN), contain more than 2000 fragments larger than 10 centimetres. The collision may also have produced hundreds of thousands of smaller fragments, which cannot currently be tracked from Earth. Such debris is a serious worry. With satellites travelling at tens of thousands of kilometres per hour, any encounter with debris could be lethal. "Being hit by a 1-centimetre object at orbital velocity is the equivalent of exploding a hand grenade next to a satellite," says Heiner Klinkrad, head of the space debris office at the European Space Agency in Darmstadt, Germany. "Iridium and Kosmos was an early indication of the Kessler syndrome." Space junk isn't just made up of dead satellites. It also includes spent upper-stage rockets, used to loft the satellites into orbit, and items that have escaped the grasp of butterfingered astronauts, such as the glove Ed White dropped in 1965 as he became the first American to walk in space, and the tool kit that slipped from Heide Stefanyshyn-Piper's hand during a 2008 space walk. Protective covers and the explosive bolts used to separate them from uncrewed spacecraft have also been left to float away, along with a few lens caps for good measure. Some of these objects re-enter the atmosphere and burn up, but most are still up there. The SSN has catalogued 12,000 objects in Earth orbit that are at least 10 centimetres in size, about three-quarters of which are space junk. For objects bigger than 1 centimetre, the estimates are frightening: there are anything from hundreds of thousands to millions of them, mostly in unknown orbits and each capable of smashing a satellite to smithereens. Every rocket launch creates yet more space debris, edging us ever closer to the Kessler syndrome becoming a reality.
Space Debris increasing, alarming NASA.

Dunbar 10 (Brian Dunbar, NASA official, NASA, Space Debris and Human Spacecraft, October 23,2010, http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html#backtoTop, rn)

Space Debris and Human Spacecraft More than 500,000 pieces of debris, or “space junk,” are tracked as they orbit the Earth. They all travel at speeds up to 17,500 mph, fast enough for a relatively small piece of orbital debris to damage a satellite or a spacecraft. The rising population of space debris increases the potential danger to all space vehicles, but especially to the International Space Station, space shuttles and other spacecraft with humans aboard. NASA takes the threat of collisions with space debris seriously and has a long-standing set of guidelines on how to deal with each potential collision threat. These guidelines, part of a larger body of decision-making aids known as flight rules, specify when the expected proximity of a piece of debris increases the probability of a collision enough that evasive action or other precautions to ensure the safety of the crew are needed



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The current tracking system fails to even track debris around the ISS.

Alsup in 11 (News reporter at cnn, CNN, Nasa: debris is closest ever to space station, 6/29/11, http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/06/29/nasa.space.debris/, AX)

Russia's Interfax news agency said preliminary data on "the dangerous approach" shows that the "trash" came within about 250 meters (820 feet) of the station. Officials at NASA are investigating what the debris was, NASA spokesman Joshua Buck said. By the time it was spotted, it was "too late to make an avoidance maneuver," so NASA ordered the six crew members to "shelter in place," Buck said. About 7:30 a.m. ET, the crew members climbed into the two Soyuz capsules positioned at the station. NASA determined that the debris would come closest to the station at 8:08 a.m. ET. Three minutes later, at 8:11 a.m. ET, the all-clear was sounded and astronauts were allowed to exit the capsules, Buck said. Buck described the debris as an "unknown object of unknown size."


Brink: Collisions (1/2)


The aff’s on the brink – any increase in fragmentation makes space impassable.

Wilder 10 (Benjamin, Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, B.S., University of South Alabama, Naval Postgraduate School, Thesis for a Master of Science in Physics at the Naval Postgraduate School, Power Beaming, Orbital Debris Removal, And Other Space Applications Of A Ground Based Free Electron Laser, March 2010, http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada518696.pdf, SP)
Considering the alarming rate of orbital debris generation, the era of mankind’s open and relatively simple access to space may be coming to an end. Any increase of fragmentation events, such as through a future war with anti-satellite engagements or simply from the continued collisions in crowded orbits, has the potential to render those orbits virtually useless for generations to come. If the Chinese ASAT engagement above generated ~3,000 pieces of debris, an anti-satellite war that destroys only 10 satellites could immediately double the current debris population, and this large debris field would spread over time to other orbits ”near” the parent satellite. Currently, there are no programs for the removal of space debris from orbit, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has only recently enacted guidelines to limit the creation of orbital debris. Likewise, the space debris problem will not “solve itself” in the near future. The anticipated orbital lifetime of debris in the 8001100 km range is on the order of 10,000 years [52, p. 576]. The space tug concept discussed in Chapter V may be one method to reduce the amount of large debris, such as rocket bodies and non-functional spacecraft, by hauling these items into lower disposal orbits that experience higher atmospheric drag. Similarly, by reducing the larger parent objects, much of the future fragmentation debris growth could be avoided. For smaller debris, the most-promising, near-term method of debris removal is through the illumination of debris clouds with a high energy laser to lower the perigee of their orbits as proposed by Project Orion.
Space debris collisions likely - empirically proven.

Ingham 6/28 (Richard Ingham is AFP's international coordinator of science, health and environment coverage. His special interests are climate change, AIDS, space exploration, genetics and bird flu. He spent 10 years as a reporter in Brussels and Berlin and as regional news editor in Asia. In a 25-year career, he has filed from places ranging from East Timor, Goose Bay and Lhasa to French Guiana, Ouagadougou and the slums of Nairobi, physorg.com, Space Debris a Growing Problem, http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-06-space-debris-problem.html, 6/28/11, rn)

In May 2009, a 10-cm (four-inch) chunk from Fengyun-1C passed within three kilometres (1.8 miles) of the US space shuttle Atlantis, prompting plans for evasive manoeuvres that proved to be unneeded. Four known collisions have occurred between tracked objects, France's National Centre for Space Studies (CNES) says. In 1991, a Russian navigation satellite, Cosmos 1991, collided with debris from a defunct Russian satellite, Cosmos 926, although this event only came to light in 2005. In 1996, a fragment from an exploded Ariane rocket launched in 1986 damaged a French spy micro-satellite, Cerise. In 2005, the upper stage of a US Thor launcher hit debris from a Chinese CZ-4 rocket. And in 2009, a disused Russian military satellite, Cosmos 2251, smacked into a US Iridium communications satellite, generating a debris cloud in its own right. In low Earth orbit, which is where the ISS is deployed, debris impacts at around 10 kilometres (six miles) per second (36,000 kph / 22,400 mph), says the CNES. An aluminium pellet just one millimetre (0.04 of an inch) carries roughly the same kinetic energy as a cricket ball or baseball fired at 450 kph (280 mph). In June 1983, the windscreen of the shuttle Challenger had to be replaced after it was chipped


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