Space Debris Affirmative
Brink: Kessler Syndrome (3/3)
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Brink: Kessler Syndrome (3/3)(continued) on a catalogue containing 3866 objects; today, the catalogue contains about 13,000 objects, or more than 3 times as many objects. This gives a collision rate that is more than 10 times what it was just over 30 years ago, or 0.13 per year….which is the same as one catastrophic collision between cataloged objects every 8 years….with the time between collisions rapidly becoming shorter as the catalog continues to grow. The larger fragments from either explosions or collisions will further accelerate the rate of collisions. Most of the collisions in the 1978 paper were predicted to take place between 800 km and 1000 km altitude. That is even truer today. Not only is this region rapidly growing, certain altitudes contain a high concentrations of satellites, and the inclinations of their orbits are near polar, both conditions increasing the probability that they will collide, and do so with collision velocities that average more than 10 km/sec. We are entering a new era of debris control….an era that will be dominated by a slowly increasing number of random catastrophic collisions. These collisions will continue in the 800 km to 1000 km altitude regions, but will eventually spread to other regions. The control of future debris requires, at a minimum, that we not leave future payloads and rocket bodies in orbit after their useful life and might require that we plan launches to return some objects already in orbit.
(Could be used as a potential effects topicality argument) Crowther 2 (Richard, QinetiQ Space, Cody Technology Park, Farnborough GU14 0LX, UK, The Royal Society, Orbital debris: a growing threat to space operations, November 20 2002, http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/361/1802/157.full.pdf+html, SP) The Earth encounters a flux of natural debris as it sweeps through interplanetary space. This sporadic flux of meteoroids totals more than 200 kg of dust within 2000 km of the Earth’s surface, travelling in excess of 20 km s and is relatively evenly distributed in position and velocity (NSTC 1995). This population is periodically augmented by stream meteoroids, when the Earth passes through the remnants of comets such as Tempel{Tuttle, to produce short-lived but signi cantly enhanced and directional ®uxes such as the Leonids (Beech et al. 1997). Historically, this was the background particulate environment against which arti cial satellites were designed. Towards the end of the third decade of the space age, it became apparent that another population of debris was having an impact on arti cial satellites but, unlike the naturally occurring meteoroids, it was man-made in origin. This orbital debris population was growing rapidly, dominating the meteoroid environment in all but the micrometre size range. This new particulate environment, posing a signi cantly increased collision hazard to the arti cial satellites, was found to be the direct consequence of launching and operating similar systems during the preceding 30 years. As we become more dependent upon space-based systems for remote sensing, communications and navigation, it is important that we understand the nature of the threat that orbital debris pose to operational satellites and take appropriate steps to ensure the sustainable development of near-Earth space. This brink evidence is on fire –the debris produced by the recent Chinese ASAT tests threatens to ruin all past long term efforts made to reduce debris. Also, current treaties and international conventions fail – no enforcement and no coverage. Senechal 10 (Thierry, Policy Manager with the International Chamber of Commerce, Papers on International Environmental Treaty-Making, Space Debris Pollution: A Convention Proposal, 2010, http://www.pon.org/downloads/ien16.2.Senechal.pdf, SP) On 11 January 2007 a Chinese ground-based missile was used to destroy the Fengyun-1C spacecraft, an aging satellite orbiting more than 500 miles in space since May 1999. Although the test was hugely successful from a military point of view, demonstrating China‘s ability to use very sophisticated weapons to target regions of space that are home to various satellites and space-based systems, it caused great concerns to both the military and scientific communities. Indeed, the event is a real danger in the sense it may fuel an arms race and weaponization of space, with some countries being tempted to show they can easily control space as well. From the scientific perspective, the Chinese destruction of Fengyun-1C gave a new dimension to the space debris issue. In shattering the old weather-watching satellite into hundreds of large fragments, the Chinese created a large ―debris cloud. The debris are now spreading all around the earth, the majority of them residing in very long-lived orbits. The debris cloud extends from less than 125 miles (200 kilometers) to more than 2,292 miles (3,850 kilometers), encompassing all of low Earth orbit. As of 27 February 2007, the U.S. military‘s Space Surveillance Network had tracked and cataloged 900 debris fragments greater than 5 centimeters in Brink: A lot of Debris (2/7)(continued) size, large enough to create potentially serious collision problems. The total count of objects could go even higher based upon the mass of Fengyun-1C and the conditions of the breakup, which could have created millions of smaller pieces. The Chinese test has demonstrated that the actual system for preventing the creation of space debris is still weak—with a single test threatening to put in shamble the long-term efforts made by other countries. In particular, questions are now raised as to the extent to which the existing organizations working on space debris could take measures to protect the orbital space from pollution. The test also shows that the various existing treaties and conventions regulating outer space activities do not play a significant role in preventing such an incident because they lack coverage on such issues or are impossible to enforce. Now is key – Experts say the amount of space junk will triple by 2030 David in 11 (Leonard, Space.com space insider columnist, Space.com Spaceflight, Ugly truth of space junk: Orbital debris problem to triple by 2030, May 09, 2011, http://www.space.com/11607-space-junk-rising-orbital-debris-levels-2030.html, NU) In a recent conference here, Gen. William Shelton, commander of the U.S. Air Force Space Command, relayed his worries about rising amounts of human-made space junk. "The traffic is increasing. We've now got over 50 nations that are participants in the space environment," Shelton said last month during the Space Foundation’s 27th National Space Symposium. Given existing space situational awareness capabilities, over 20,000 objects are now tracked. [Worst Space Debris Events of All Time] "We catalog those routinely and keep track of them. That number is projected to triple by 2030, and much of that is improved sensors, but some of that is increased traffic," Shelton said. "Then if you think about it, there are probably 10 times more objects in space than we're able to track with our sensor capability today. Those objects are untrackable … yet they are lethal to our space systems -- to military space systems, civil space systems, commercial -- no one’s immune from the threats that are on orbit today, just due to the traffic in space." Space debris will increase in coming years – Makes now the critical time to act. Wall 11 (Mike Wall, senior writer at space.com and Former herpetologist , Space.com, Space Junk Threat Will Grow for Astronauts and Satellites, http://www.space.com/11305-space-junk-astronauts-bigger-threat.html ,rn) Fast-moving chunks of space debris zipped uncomfortably close to the International Space Station twice in the past week — cosmic close calls that will likely become more common over the next several years, experts predict. For one thing, after 50 years of spaceflight there is just more junk up there than there used to be, sharing space with vehicles and their human crews. And this debris can snowball — as when satellites collide, spawning thousands of new pieces of orbiting junk. The sun is also entering an active period, which puffs up Earth's atmosphere and increases orbital drag — causing higher-altitude space debris to rain down on spacecraft below. Solar activity shouldn't hit its peak until 2012 or 2013, so orbiting astronauts may experience some more close shaves soon. "I think that over the next two or three years, this is going to happen more often," NASA's Gene Stansbery told SPACE.com. Stansbery is the program manager of NASA's Orbital Debris Office at Johnson Space Center in Houston. 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