Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
AT: Indonesian Instability
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AT: Indonesian Instability1. Indonesia no longer weak enough to collapse – new army chief, better economy, fewer regional conflicts, and lower corruption Jusuf Wanandi (founder and member of the board of trustees of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (Indonesia)) 2002: Indonesia: A Failed State? http://www.twq.com/02summer/wanandi.pdf. In the last two months, the government has begun attending to some of the priorities mentioned above, slightly stabilizing Indonesia’s weak state. In April 2002, Megawati proposed a new commander in chief for the military, former chief of staff of the army General Endriartono Sutarto. He is professionally inclined and able to unite the armed forces, which are still divided and demoralized five years after the fall of Suharto. If Sutarto is successful, the government will be able to push the military to do its job once more and support the police against insurgencies, without worrying too much that the military could again cause mischief. The economy has also improved recently, as the government slowly implements reforms. In part, increases in domestic consumption and in the price of oil have driven growth. Despite more than two years of political resistance, the BCA Bank, the biggest asset of the IBRA (Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency), was sold, exemplifying the government’s promising decisiveness. The Indonesian currency, the rupiah, has strengthened by 10– 12 percent; economic growth is expected to be nearly 4 percent; and unemployment appears to have decreased. Exports are also expected to rise in the second half of 2002 as the U.S. and European Union economies recover. In the meantime, regional conflicts have subsided. The Poso conflict in Central Sulawesi has basically ended, and the agreement negotiated by Jusuf Kalla (coordinating minister for people’s welfare) is working. The situation in the Moluccas Islands conflict has improved, although not completely ended due to implementation problems, namely how to remove the Laskar Jihad and some army and police members from the islands. The conflict in Aceh has entered a negotiating mode again and is moving in the right direction. At this stage, 60 percent of the Aceh people are considered to be pro- Indonesia, as opposed to two years ago when 90 percent were considered to be pro-independence. Megawati has even established an ad hoc human rights tribunal to prosecute the abusers of human rights in East Timor during the time of the referendum in 1999. Officials are making progress in the fight against corruption. The attorney general’s office has again brought more serious accusations against Tommy Suharto, the son of President Suharto, for masterminding the killing of a Supreme Court judge in 2000. Authorities have detained some shady businessmen, who have not made any serious attempts to pay their debt, for interrogation and prosecutorial purposes. Even high-ranking officials such as the governor of the Central Bank, Syahril Sabirin, who was sentenced to three years in prison, have been tried in court, while officials detained the speaker of Parliament, Akbar Tandjung, for interrogation in a corruption case. 2. Impact is empirically denied – the Aceh rebellion should have caused the impacts Jusuf Wanandi (founder and member of the board of trustees of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (Indonesia)) 2002: Indonesia: A Failed State? http://www.twq.com/02summer/wanandi.pdf. Regional conflicts are the most visible sign of the breakdown of the central government’s authority, and no clear strategy to overcome these problems seems to exist. One has a sense of drift. The political elite knows only one way to solve conflicts: by force, a method used many times. Yet, force has never been completely successful; simply repeating tried tactics will not solve these problems. The most debilitating conflict is in the province of Aceh, where three rebellions have occurred in the last 20 years. The government is still looking for a military victory even though it could not solve the problem through force even at the height of its military might in the early 1990s. The government had subdued the rebellion twice by military means, but the conflict resurfaced after several years. At the same time, 10,000 people, many of them innocent civilians, have become victims; hundreds of thousands have become internal refugees. The problem began when the Acehnese felt the Suharto regime had neglected and marginalized them and they exhibited their defiance. Because Golkar, the government’s party, had never won a majority in Aceh, the government marginalized the province. Military abuses were so horrendous that the situation turned into a full-fledged rebellion. The Acehnese now demand, first and foremost, judicial condemnation for the perpetrators of human rights violations, especially those conducted at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s. They also demand a fairer share of the revenues from their abundant natural resources. AT: Indo-Pak War1. War between India and Pakistan is unlikely, although tensions may last for a few months Zhongfa, staff writer for China View, 1/12/09 (Li Zhongfa, staff writer for China View, 1/12/09, http://ips-pk.org/content/view/816/177/) The tensions between Pakistan and India might last for another three or four months until the general elections held in India, a Pakistani analyst said on Monday, adding that there is very little possibility of war. "Perhaps the tensions will continue for the next three or four months until the elections are held in India," said Khalid Rahman, Director General of Islamabad based Institute of Policy Studies, in an interview with Xinhua. Before India's general elections in May, political parties in India will take a hard stance against Pakistan to win popularity at home, said Rahman.
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said Sunday that it would respond to a dossier of evidence from India in the next few days. The spiraling tensions between the two nuclear-armed countries have sparked speculations among the media that India might carry out surgical strikes inside Pakistan. Pakistan's Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani said on Sunday that Pakistan's defense is in strong hands and the nation will not be frightened by any threats. "That is just a war of words... there is very little possibility of war between the two countries," said Rahman. "The two countries can not afford a war" because they both have nuclear weapons, Rahman said. Rahman also said the international community, particularly the United States, don't want a war or conflict between the two countries. 2. Indo-Pak nuclear conflict unlikely. The Michigan Daily ’02 (“Experts say nuclear war still unlikely,” http://www.michigandaily.com/content/experts-say-nuclear-war-still-unlikely) University political science Prof. Ashutosh Varshney becomes animated when asked about the likelihood of nuclear war between India and Pakistan. "Odds are close to zero," Varshney said forcefully, standing up to pace a little bit in his office. "The assumption that India and Pakistan cannot manage their nuclear arsenals as well as the U.S.S.R. and U.S. or Russia and China concedes less to the intellect of leaders in both India and Pakistan than would be warranted." The world"s two youngest nuclear powers first tested weapons in 1998, sparking fear of subcontinental nuclear war a fear Varshney finds ridiculous. "The decision makers are aware of what nuclear weapons are, even if the masses are not," he said. "Watching the evening news, CNN, I think they have vastly overstated the threat of nuclear war," political science Prof. Paul Huth said. Varshney added that there are numerous factors working against the possibility of nuclear war. "India is committed to a no-first-strike policy," Varshney said. "It is virtually impossible for Pakistan to go for a first strike, because the retaliation would be gravely dangerous." Political science Prof. Kenneth Lieberthal, a former special assistant to President Clinton at the National Security Council, agreed. "Usually a country that is in the position that Pakistan is in would not shift to a level that would ensure their total destruction," Lieberthal said, making note of India"s considerably larger nuclear arsenal. "American intervention is another reason not to expect nuclear war," Varshney said. "If anything has happened since September 11, it is that the command control system has strengthened. The trigger is in very safe hands." But the low probability of nuclear war does not mean tensions between the two countries who have fought three wars since they were created in 1947 will not erupt. "The possibility of conventional war between the two is higher. Both sides are looking for ways out of the current tension," Lieberthal said. 3. India-Pakistan nuclear war doesn’t escalate The Hamilton Spectator, 5/24/2002 For those who do not live in the subcontinent, the most important fact is that the damage would be largely confined to the region. The Cold War is over, the strategic understandings that once tied India and Pakistan to the rival alliance systems have all been cancelled, and no outside powers would be drawn into the fighting. The detonation of a hundred or so relatively small nuclear weapons over India and Pakistan would not cause grave harm to the wider world from fallout. People over 40 have already lived through a period when the great powers conducted hundreds of nuclear tests in the atmosphere, and they are mostly still here. Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. Tropical Cyclones documents -> Cbp and Trade Automated Interface Requirements Appendix: pga december 22, 2015 documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Mobile audio/video recording systems documents -> Cartographic Concepts for Realizing a Location Based umts service documents -> 1/ Background Statistics Human development index rank Download 2.71 Mb. Share with your friends:
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