Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
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- Ext 1 – No Link to Conflict
AT: Water Wars 2/23. Water scarcity inevitable – agriculture & biofuels Doyle, 06, Environment Correspondent for Reutera Alister Doyle, “Food, biofuels could worsen water shortages-report,” Sun 20 Aug 2006, http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/News_Room/Multimedia/coverage/Food%20biofuels%20could%20worsen%20water%20shortages_Reuters.com.pdf Surging demand for irrigation to produce food and biofuels is likely to aggravate scarcities of water but the world's supply is not running out, an international report said yesterday. "One in three people is enduring one form or another of water scarcity," the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) said in a report compiled by 700 experts and backed by the United Nations and farm research groups. The scarcity figures were higher than previous estimates. "Conquering hunger and coping with an estimated 3 billion extra people by 2050 will result in an 80 per cent increase in water use for agriculture on rained and irrigated lands," it added. Demand for irrigation which absorbs about 74 per cent of all water used by people against 18 per cent for hydropower and other industrial uses and just 8 per cent for households was likely to surge by 2050. Many nations are also shifting to produce biofuels from sugarcane, corn or wood as a less polluting alternative to fossil fuels. Oil prices at $75US a barrel and worries about global warming are driving the shift. "If people are growing biofuels and food it will put another new stress. This leads us to a picture of a lot more water use," said David Molden, who led the study at the Sri Lanka-based IWMI. 4. Strategic issues make water wars impossible Wolf, 97 (Aaron T. Wolf Ph.D., professor of geoscience at Oregon State University. “Conflict and Cooperation Over International Waterways.” http://www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu/publications/conflict_coop/) If one were to launch a war over water, what would be the goal? Presumably, the aggressor would have to be both downstream and the regional hegemon -- an upstream riparian would have no cause to launch an attack and a weaker state would be foolhardy to do so. (Foolhardiness apparently does not preclude such "asymmetric conflicts." Paul (1994) describes eight such case studies from 1904-1982, but points out that in none did the weaker power achieve its goals.) An upstream riparian, then, would have to launch a project which decreases either quantity or quality, knowing that it will antagonize a stronger down-stream neighbor. The down-stream power would then have to decide whether to launch an attack -- if the project were a dam, destroying it would result in a wall of water rushing back on down-stream territory; were it a quality-related project, either industrial or waste treatment, destroying it would probably result in even worse quality than before. Furthermore, the hegemon would have to weigh not only an invasion, but an occupation and depopulation of the entire watershed in order to forestall any retribution -- otherwise, it would be extremely simple to pollute the water source of the invading power. Both countries could not be democracies, since the political scientists tell us that democracies do not go to war against each other, and the international community would have to refuse to become involved (this, of course, is the least far-fetched aspect of the scenario). All of this effort would be expended for a resource which costs about a US dollar per cubic meter to create from seawater. There are "only" 261 international watersheds -- there are only a handful on which the above scenario is even feasible (the Nile, Plata, and Mekong come to mind), and many of those either have existing treaties or ongoing negotiations towards a treaty. Finding a site for a "water war" turns out to be as difficult as accepting the rationale for launching one. 5. Water wars are rare and local conflicts won’t escalate GECHS, 99 (Global Environmental Change and Human Security. “Water and Human Security.” June 1999. http://www.gechs.org/aviso/03/index.html) The global water crisis has led to a large and growing literature warning of future “water wars,” and points to water not only as a cause of historic armed conflict, but as the resource which will likely result in armed conflict in the 21st century. The historical record is quite different – we have not, and in all likelihood will not, go to war over water. In modern times, only seven minor skirmishes were waged over international waters. Conversely, over 3,600 treaties have been signed over different aspects of international waters – 145 in this century on water qua water. May of these treaties have shown tremendous elegance and creativity for dealing with this critical resource. This is not to say there has not been armed conflict over water, only that such disputes generally are between tribes, water-use sectors, or states/provinces. It seems that geographic scale and intensity of conflict are inversely related. Our work suggests it is important to view international water as a resource whose characteristics tend to induce cooperation, and incite violence only in the exception. However, one should not lose sight of the truly dire straits brought about by the global water crisis. The critical problems that need addressing are neither of wars nor of politics, but rather of getting an adequate supply of clean freshwater to the people of the world. Ext #1 – No Link to ConflictThere is no conflict impact to a lack of water Kasrils- Minister of water affairs and forestry, Republic of South Africa- 02 [Ronnie, HYDROPOLITICS IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD:A SOUTHERN AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE, edi.Anthony Turton & Roland Henwood,pg 9-10] There is a popularly held belief in parts of the developed world that water scarcity will inevitably lead to conflict. This notion is often nurtured by the available literature, which tends to be dominated by geographic areas like the Middle East and other international river basins that lie in conflict-ridden settings. This idea is flawed and its perpetuation continues to undermine investor confidence in the developing world. As almost no literature has been generated from an African perspective to show that this is not universally true, this book is particularly relevant. The efforts by the editors and authors to lay the foundation for an African perspective to an African problem are laudable. Although the views expressed here are not necessarily aligned to the approaches of the South African government on international water issues, the contents of the book certainly emphasises the importance, particularly politically, of water in developing countries. This work can rightly be regarded as a contribution to the Millennium Partnership for the African Recovery Programme (MAP)* that grew from President Thabo Mbeki's African Renaissance initiative. Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. 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