Mutations don’t increase likelihood of human transmission

Mutations don’t increase likelihood of human transmission

Several recent media reports have included speculations about the significance of mutations in H5N1 avian influenza viruses. Some reports have suggested that the likelihood of another pandemic may have increased as a result of changes in the virus. Since 1997, when the first human infections with the H5N1 avian influenza virus were documented, the virus has undergone a number of changes. These changes have affected patterns of virus transmission and spread among domestic and wild birds. They have not, however, had any discernible impact on the disease in humans, including its modes of transmission. Human infections remain a rare event. The virus does not spread easily from birds to humans or readily from person to person.

AT: Blackouts

1. No impact on the economy

Thomas 1/18/01 – Associate Director of Advisory Services at NFF, Senior Economic Correspondent for Smartmoney.com [Rebecca, “An Energy Crisis—but Not an Economic One,” Smart Money, 1/18/01, http://www.smartmoney.com/theeconomy/index.cfm?story=200101181]

Wall Street also downplayed the potential nationwide impact of California-specific electricity disruptions, with the Nasdaq posting a healthy two-day bounce and the Dow Jones Industrial Average joining in on Thursday. While California accounts for about one-eighth of U.S. gross domestic product, not all of its economic activity requires the input of electricity, Credit Suisse First Boston economists note. Moreover, they say, some economic activity that would have occurred in California will now be moved to other states, offsetting any potential loss in national GDP. When it comes to inflation, the national impact of higher electric rates should be similarly muted. Even if statewide electric bills increased by 50%, the overall consumer price index (CPI) would rise by just 0.2%, notes Lehman Brothers chief economist Stephen Slifer. And if you figure that California consumers will ultimately pay the entire $12 billion in losses incurred by the utilities — a worst-case scenario — national personal income would fall by only 0.1%, he says. Finally, although several banks —including Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) and First Union (FTU) — are vulnerable to potential loan losses from Edison and PG&E, the likelihood of a systemic financial meltdown remains low. That's because California policy makers are unlikely to let utilities go bankrupt and because few other utilities in the U.S. face similar problems. Moreover, banks' exposure to utilities is small relative to their overall capital base, Lehman economists say.

2. Prevention measures taken to prevent massive blackouts & escalation

DoE 9-10/04 – U.S. Department of Energy [Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, “Is Our Power Grid More Reliable One Year After the Blackout?”, State Energy Program, Sept.-Oct./04, http://www.eere.energy.gov/state_energy_program/feature_detail_info.cfm/fid=32?print]

<The U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force publication, The August 14, 2003 Blackout One Year Later: Actions Taken in the United States and Canada to Reduce Blackout Risk (PDF 236 KB) Download Acrobat Reader, details the actions taken to improve grid reliability. For example, shortly after the Task Force identified direct causes of the August 14 blackout, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and NERC set to correct them. The U.S. Canada Power System Outage Task Force conducted a massive investigation into the causes of the blackout and made 42 recommendations to improve power system operations. In December 2003, FERC ordered FirstEnergy to study the adequacy of transmission and generation facilities in northeastern Ohio. The results were submitted in April 2004 and recommendations are now being incorporated into FirstEnergy's operations and strategic plan. In February 2004, NERC directed FirstEnergy, the MISO, PJM Interconnection, and the East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement on actions each organization needed by June 30, 2004, to reduce the potential of future blackouts. NERC then approved and verified their compliance plans. In response to the April 2004 Final Report, FERC took the following actions to clarify and develop reliability standards: * Commissioned a firm to analyze transmission line outages related to inadequate tree trimming — a major contributor to the August 14 blackout — and determine best practices for preventing this problem. See the "Utility Vegetation Management and Bulk Electric Reliability Report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission" (PDF 92 KB). * Began to require transmission owners to file reports on their tree trimming practices. * Affirmed the need to strengthen and clarify NERC's operating reliability standards. Meanwhile, NERC strengthened its policies on emergency operations, operations planning, and reliability coordinator procedures and will include compliance metrics in its operating policies and planning standards by February 2005. New standards for managing vegetation and calculating transmission line ratings are also being developed; procedures for training and certifying operators are being revised.>
3. Impact is empirically denied – if the massive 2003 blackout didn’t trigger the impacts, nothing will

4. Blackouts encourage conservation methods.

Suzuki 8/22/03 – co-founder of the David Suzuki Foundation, host of CBC’s The Nature of Things, professor emeritus with Sustainable Development Research Institute, [Dr. David T., “Blackout shows the need for conservation,” David Suzuki Foundation, http://www.davidsuzuki.org/about_us/Dr_David_Suzuki/Article_Archives/weekly08220301.asp]

California has been adopting such efficiency standards and is working to reduce its electricity usage. Two years ago, California's electrical grid was also at the breaking point, much like it is in Ontario today. But rather than spend huge amounts of money on more polluting, fossil-fuel fired power plants, the state elected to push energy conservation. It worked. California dramatically reduced power consumption over just a few weeks and prevented rolling blackouts and the economic disruption they would have entailed. It also reduced greenhouse gas emissions by the equivalent of six million cars! This is the direction Ontario, and indeed all of Canada must head. We need to reduce our dependence on a centralized, outdated and overstressed electrical grid. We can do this by adopting better standards for efficiency, focusing on conservation and shifting to renewable energy supply and a decentralized power system that is less vulnerable to large failures. Sitting out and watching the stars is something we should all do more often, but it's nice to know we can always turn the lights on.

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