Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
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- AT: California Economy
AT: Business ConfidenceActual business condition overshadow biz con – it’s resilient Johannesburg 9 (Mail & Guadian Online, "Business confidence remains resilient," Jun 9, http://www.mg.co.za/article/2009-06-09-business-confidence-remains-resilient, AD: 6/29/09) jl As was the case during the first quarter, the decline in business confidence levels is surprisingly small in view of the poor actual business conditions. This points to perceptions that the economy is approaching the lower turning point of the present cycle. Confidence declined in the building and construction sector (-10), the manufacturing sector (-5) and the retail sector (-5), though it recovered somewhat in the both the wholesale (+5) and motor trade (+7) sectors. Since the end of last year, the local business environment has been overshadowed by the effect of the global financial and economic crisis. The impact of the global crisis arrived on top of an already moderating local business cycle since the end of 2007. Mining and manufacturing real GDP contracted at real annualised rates of 30% and 20% respectively during the first quarter of 2009, while the tertiary sector, excluding government, slowed to year-on-year growth of only 0,6% from 5% to 6% at the end of 2007. Following on a real GDP growth momentum of 4% to 5% at the beginning of last year, actual GDP began contracting during the final quarter of 2008 (-1,8% annualised) and this decline intensified during the first quarter of this year (6,4% annualised). "The SARB has responded quite aggressively, cutting its repo rate at five meetings since December 2008 by a cumulative 450 basis points; in February the minister of finance also announced an expansionary budget for the 2009/10 fiscal year. The global economic situation also stabilised from March this year, and equity and commodity markets have recovered, though much uncertainty remains," the survey's sponsors said. Massachusetts proves that bizcon is resilient and rising now. Reidy 9 (Chris, ADP Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, The Boston Globe, "Business confidence index edges up," May 6, Lexis, AD: 6/29/09) jl Associated Industries of Massachusetts said its monthly Business Confidence Index added 1.9 points from March to reach 35.4 in April. February's 33.3 reading, (on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral) was a historic low. Established in 1915, AIM describes itself as a nonprofit, nonpartisan group that represents Massachusetts employers. A statement from Raymond G. Torto, chief economist at the real estate company CB Richard Ellis Group and chairman of AIM's board of economic advisers, said: ``Though two small gains barely constitute a trend, we have been seeing signs in the AIM survey since February that the economic decline - now the longest of the post-World War II era - could bottom out soon.'' US biz con is resilient – Trends indicate optimism is prevailing in the market. Piovano 9 (Carlo, AP Business Writer, " World Stocks Recover on Resilient US Earnings," May 18, http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=7611441, AD: 6/30/090 jl World stock markets recovered early losses Monday after Lowe's, the second biggest U.S. home improvement chain, said first-quarter profit fell less than feared. The report boosted hopes among investors that the worst of the U.S. recession is over and offset weak earnings news out of Asia, which had weighed on markets early in the day. Standing out Monday was India's stock market, which vaulted more than 17 percent higher on the results of elections over the weekend. In afternoon European trading, Germany's DAX was up 1.1 percent at 4,789.35 and Britain's FTSE 100 was 1.2 percent higher at 4,400.69. France's CAC 40 rose 0.7 percent to 3,191.14. All of them had dropped as much as 1.0 percent after the open. U.S. futures pointed to gains on Wall Street. Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 38, or 0.5 percent, to 8,305. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures rose 5.50, or 0.6 percent, to 888.50. On Friday, the two indexes had fallen 0.8 percent and 1.1 percent. News that net profit at Lowe's Cos. fell to 32 cents per share in the quarter ended May 1, topping analysts' forecast of 25 cents a share, helped sentiment after two of Japan's leading companies — Panasonic and Mizuho Financial — reported colossal losses for the last fiscal year. Price movements were limited as investors juggled backward-looking economic indicators — such as weak GDP data and earnings reports — with more forward-looking measures of business and consumer confidence, which have been on the rise. "The rally in equity markets during March and April may hint that the optimists have won, but the fact that this has now petered out instead suggests that we have merely removed the extreme pessimism from the market," said Daragh Maher, deputy head of global forex strategy at Calyon. AT: California EconomyCalifornia’s economy is screwed anyways – no chance of recovery until at least 2011 Alana Semuels, Los Angeles Times, Staff Writer, 7 22, 2009 “No recovery in California until 2011, forecast says” http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cal-econ22-2009jul22,0,2160299.story Unemployment in California and Los Angeles County will increase well into 2010, continuing to exceed the highest levels since at least the end of World War II, according to a local economist whose projections for the Southland economy are among the most negative to date. Continued sluggishness in key industries such as construction, retail, international trade and hospitality will keep the state from a full recovery until 2011, said the report, released by the Kyser Center for Economic Research at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. Personal income will drop 2% in the state this year, the report said, the first annual decline since 1938. "Most people haven't experienced anything like this in their lifetimes," said Jack Kyser, founding economist of the Kyser Center. California's jobless rate, which was 11.6% in June, will average 12.6% next year, according to Kyser, who also projected that Los Angeles County's unemployment rate will be even higher, averaging 12.8% in 2010. The county's jobless rate was 11.3% last month. And they’re already doing everything they can to solve it Associated Press, is an American news agency. The AP is a cooperative owned by its contributing newspapers, radio and television stations, 7-24-09, http://www.cnbc.com/id/32122992 When people have to struggle and suffer because of those kind of cuts, you can't declare victory," he said. "I think what we have done is steered away from the iceberg and we are coming out of it and we're going to rebuild California as quickly as possible and get our economy back." The attempt to take or borrow nearly $5 billion from cities and counties over two years became one of the most difficult issues. Several big-city mayors criticized the raids Thursday and said at least 130 local governments have agreed to sue the state to block the transfer of some money. Under the budget package, the state would borrow $2 billion from local governments' property tax revenue and repay it with interest within three years. It would take another $1 billion in redevelopment money and nearly $2 billion over two years in local transportation funds — a measure Assembly leaders were considering rejecting Friday. Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. 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